Update for Monday, 29 April

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The new combined leader list can be found here.  As usual, the list is sorted with the best Effective Volume stocks at the top, going into Monday, April 29th, and descending down to the worse timing.  All these stocks pass a rigorous screening and my view is that they are all worthy of investment.

My holding period is several days to weeks, and in some cases, months.  I make no representations as to trading these stocks on a short term basis -- I do not perform analysis on this time frame and my timer systems are not tuned to short time frames.  In other words, your on your own.

For those of you who know how I screen, here is the "green table" (as it's become known).  Not all the stocks in the combined leader's list is here due to screen capture limitations, but the best for timing entry are presented:

As with all my blog images, right-click on the picture to open in a new tab or window so you can scan the details.

Column descriptions are to be found here.

As a group, e.g., a mini-index, the behavior is solid but range-bound:

This suggests that we are losing our ability to make new highs, and although I'm still on a long signal overall, expecting all these stocks to continue to climb would be rather foolish.  We *can* expect the individual stocks to outperform as well as underperform the chart above, and this is why timing with Effective Volume is important.

Regards,

pgd

13APR24-Timer Indicates "New Long" into the Markets

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With the close of markets on Wednesday, April 24th, my GGT timer has confirmed a move into the markets on the long side.  Shorting stocks or trading contra ETFs should be avoided if your time horizon for holding is typically longer than a couple of weeks.

As you can see, we're prone to whipsawing right now so the level of commitment into equities is subjective.  I am only placing orders for GGT securities which are "long" rated, and have a strong preference for GGT securities which are showing a cash-strength of +4 and/or favorable effective volume (www.effectivevolume.com) and/or are flashing a "New Long" status.

Daily updates of stocks on my list, along with their recommendations, are available if you send me an email to pduncan [at] VT [dot] edu, editing the syntax as necessary, and place the word "Dropbox" in the subject field with nothing else in the subject.

For those of you who are familiar, there are a number of leading stocks who should be on your watchlist.  My scan of this universe produces the following table:

Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window to make larger.

To save you time in typing, the list of stocks above, sorted most favorable EV at the top descending, is as follows:


BIOL
VCLK
BOFI
CPTS
LOPE
NXST
CBM
EPL
SSI
KR
PRXL
STC
CTCM
CONN
MMP
KMX
MPW
SIRI
ACOR
FOR
SBGI
CZZ
HF
JRN
VMED
PIKE
PGTI
SIRO
ASTX
SFLY
SIG
EVC
HOTT
NLS
FLO
AB
CERS
COG
HCI
BX
GMCR
JOEZ
BEAV
PUK
HIMX
LEDR
SMI
TCX
WTT

Of course I urge you do perform your own diligence and to take responsibility for your own decisions.  I am not responsible for anything you do with this list of stocks.  Note that I have orders placed with many of these stocks.

Whether is this a short-term, failure-prone signal or not is left for the folks with crystal balls.  I take every signal, and I use GGT's methods to get into and also jump out of stocks.  

Happy hunting.

Regards,

pgd

Whipsaw - Moving Back to Cash

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I'm on travel so I will be brief.

My GGT model has indicated a whipsaw with the 4/11 signal to move long, effectively reversing any move to the long side. I continue to raise cash and ignore all "New Long" signals that are occurring in equities.  Now is not the time to be opportunistic, as the tide is clearly turning despite earnings season.

Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

GGT Model Signals Long 4/11

I'm on travel so this will be brief.

My GGT model has signaled that I should move long.  Stocks that are breaking out will be fair candidates, as well as GGT stocks signalling "New Long".  A listing of the latest stock database can be shared via Dropbox if you send a message to pduncan [a-t] vt.edu, replacing the [a-t] with the @ symbol and no spaces, and make the subject of the message "Dropbox".

The GGT long-term timer is long, and has been for some time.  The short-term timer and intermediate-termed timer just transitioned long with the close of markets on 4/10, so here we go into earnings season.

Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

March 18 - Short Term Timer Transitions to Cash, Stay the Course (for Now)

With the close of markets on Monday, March 18th, my GGT short-term timer has transitioned to cash. Investing in the ETF VXF or IWM would have yielded about 1.1% gains since the signal transitioned long, if you close at or better than the closing price of March 18th.

This *could be* a good entry time if the markets reverse and continue their climb. Watch the MF indicator at the Effective Volume site (www.effectivevolume.com) and stay on the correct side of that recommendation. With my intermediate-term and long-term timers still solidly bullish, pullbacks in quality stocks should be examined closely for favorable EV patterns.

To this latter point, the link HERE is of the most recent leader's list and is sorted best EV patterns descending on a 5d, 10d, 15d, and 20d lookback timeframe. My focus is the top of the list.

Note that this list changes daily with respect to order and MINOR changes to composition are weekly. This is a very solid, relatively-static list, with major updates and close examination on the weekend.

Due to my pending travel schedule I'll try to post an update using Friday's close but then it will be static for the period 3/23 - 3/30.

Regards,

Paul

All Timers Long, Futures Pointing Down, Possibly Good Opportunity for Entering

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Futures are pointing downward this morning, and all my timers are LONG (short-term, intermediate term, long term). This could be a good buying opportunity.

The following stocks are from my Leader's List for the week and are valid Elder Entry Candidates. They have not been screened for EV (http:/www.effectivevolume.com), so do your own diligence on these:

As with all my images, right click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

An Elder candidate on my list meets the following criteria:

1) the 13d EMA of price is in an up slope condition (positive short-term day-over-day growth)
2) the 34d EMA of price is in an up slope condition (positive long-term day-over-day growth)
3) The 2d Force Index (google it) is NEGATIVE, indicating a short-term pullback in a long-term uptrend
4) The 13d Force Index is POSITIVE, indicating demand over a longer period for the equity

These 4 conditions set up the trigger.

If the price takes out the previous high, enter the equity a few pennies above the high. I typically add 0.05% or 0.1% to the high as my threshold. This is a conservative entry method, and it allows you to trigger entry if the stock continues moving upward.

A more aggressive approach is to use the previous close. More prone to failure in my opinion, but it also gets you in at a better price.

In either condition, if the BUY STOP does not trigger at your established level on the given day, simply readjust your order so that the new price is the entry on the next day. MAKE SURE the other conditions still apply (items 1-4 above).

Note that I own CVI, DXPE, OCN, and SPF from the previous list.

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My Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) Slope Model continues to show bullishness on all fronts:

Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Note that the LCR continues to grow, indicating stocks are participating in this new leg upward, and that the left side of the table is showing more green. These are positive slopes, so on multiple time frames we are seeing stocks participate in price, volume, AND price rate of change performance. This is healthy.

On the left side of the table we have a sea of green. This tells me that we are seeing continued acceleration upward in stock participation, e.g., more stocks are joining the party day-over-day than are leaving, and everybody loves a party.

All signals are prone to reversal, but for now, all my indicators continue to point to the long side. I'm buying the pullbacks in accordance with the Elder entry method described above.

Here's my timer status:

EV stocks that I have a particular interest in today if they continue their accumulation by the large players are as shown:

These three stocks are from my leader's list and all meet my criteria for possible entry.

As always, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Intermediate-termed Timer Transitions Long -- All Timers Long

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As I indicated yesterday, the intermediate-termed timer was holding a "mixed" status with the short-term and long-term timers indicating "long".

All timers are now "long".

This is a mature market, so ensure you are buying quality stocks.  A list of quality stocks can be found here, and has been updated as of March 5th.

My strategy for entering positions is as follows:

I'm watching intra-day for stocks on the provided list of quality stocks to have higher prices on higher volume, intra-day.  I use an algorithm that I copied from Mike Scott to predict whether the intra-day volume will be higher at end of day, and if prices are up and the value of the predicted volume is at least 150% above the 20d MA, then I'll most likely move long in that position.  Hence, move long on volume and price breakouts.

Performance of my timer system has been good overall.  Market conditions change, so whether the performance will continue is anyone's guess.  Since 11/21/08, using the GGT index (which looks like the VXF or IWM in general) has returned over 18% per year compounded.  I'm big on limiting drawdown, so the worse case trade using the index has been -2.4%.  Of course, if you invest in stocks with a higher beta than IWM or VXF, adjust accordingly.

Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Happy hunting.

Regards,

pgd