Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Significant Up Day - May 24th Close

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Outlook: short-term improving, prone to failure

Short-term:  Continued "up" progress.  Completed Day 3, depending on how you count.
Intermediate-term:  New Up Trend
Long-term:  Uptrend intact but not accelerating upward

The weekly trends are down OR MIXED up/down in all the major indices.  The NAS and Russell 2000 *just* went to mixed mode.

The daily trends are all newly up.

When the longer-termed trends are opposing (or at least not fully confirming) the daily trends, being fully invested in the markets simply is risky.  New entries are prone to failure.

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Newsletter sent out to subscribers.  The latest version is at this link:  https://goo.gl/i2kXXf 

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

I discuss this table in detail in my latest newsletter.

Click on the image to enlarge.

From left to right, this is what I see:
  1. The LCR has moved +22% upwards on a day-over-day comparison.  This is the 195th strongest up day in almost 2000 observations, placing it in the upper 10% of all up days.  Given where it occurs (after a significant down period), I'm paying attention to the long side of the market.
  2. The 2d, 3d, and 5d slopes are positive and pointing upwards.  The 8d almost made it -- and as many of you are aware, this is my trigger for broad entry into the markets.  I saw this coming with the number of alerts that were sent out yesterday and started acquiring positions throughout the day.
  3. On the right, we have had 3 solid days of upward acceleration.  The right side looks really good.
Although we certainly can fail from here, I am buying positions from my Leaders list.  My dividend portfolio is getting leading stocks that pay a dividend.

Strategy

I intend to deploy capital.  I sold a few puts yesterday, as well as entering a few stock positions:


The stocks that I sold puts fired price/volume alerts so I expect that they will move up, away from my strikes.

I provide a completely updated list of Leaders in the daily GGT stock file, which is in the shared Dropbox folder.  Instructions to join (it is free) are in the newsletter as well as at the end of this entry.

The following Leaders fired price and volume alerts during the trading day on Tuesday:

FIZZ
ORBK

The following Greenfield stocks, which also includes those that pay a dividend and are part of my dividend portfolio, also fired price and volume alerts.

CEVA
CHKP
CTXS
EBSB
MKTX
PPBI
PRI
REXR
SPGI
VEEV
WAL

Not all pay a dividend so do your own diligence please.

Group behavior of my Greenfield Leaders list is noteworthy and continues to outperform the S&P500:

Click on the image to enlarge.

From top to bottom, this is what you are looking at:
  1. The top pane shows the S&P 500 (green) and the group behavior of the Leaders list (blue).  The S&P 500 has fallen about -2% or so over the past month; the Leaders list, in hindsight, as grown a large amount.
  2. The middle pane shows the daily price series of the Leaders list.  The green line is the 21d EMA, the yellow line the 50d EMA, and the red line the 200d EMA.
  3. The bottom pane shows volume and the 50d MA on volume.
As Mark Minervini says "If you want alpha in your portfolio, then you had best buy alpha."  I believe that my Leaders list represents alpha.

I will continue to add to my portfolios today using price and projected volume alerts.

I note that we are at a critical failure point -- we are early in a newly emerging trend.  The stocks I am invested in and am considering could easily move against me, so it is important that I review my holdings and potential new purchases every evening.  You should consider doing the same thing -- turning points can be dangerous to our portfolios.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Continued Long-Side Progress - May 23 Close

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Outlook: short-term improving, prone to failure

Short-term:  bottoming characteristics are visible
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

The weekly trends are down in all the major indices.

The daily trends are mixed.

When the longer-termed trends are opposing the daily trends, being fully invested in the markets simply is risky.  New entries are prone to failure.

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Cumulative Tick

Buying continued on the NYSE on Monday:

Click on the image to enlarge.

We are back above the solid red line, indicating that buying has dominated the past couple of days.  Taken in isolation, with more 52-week highs (green) than 52-week lows (red, top trace), we should be considering the long side of the market.

Long-Cash Ratio Table

The LCR Table continues to improve and we are closer to an entry signal:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The left/middle shows that the slope of the shortest measured period is positive.  This is a move in the right direction.

The right side shows that we have had two full days of the market slowing the descent -- this too is indicative of bottoming action.

While it is too early to call a short-term bottom, the current behavior is good and opens the door to enter positions on strength.

To recap the "ideal" setup, I am looking for the following LCR Table presentation:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Note that the 8d slope, on the left, is just transitioning positive (the move from red to green).  Historically, this has been a good entry signal, especially with the right side all green (acceleration to the upside).  We are not there yet, but it would be prudent to get shopping lists ready.

Strategy

Given that we are prone to failure at turning points, I'm launching a few trial balloons with tight stops.  I will require that these positions move higher on projected volume before I enter.

These are Greenfield Leader stocks.

All of these stocks are in a weekly uptrend and are in some form of "GGT Long" status:

TLK
WBMD
ORBK
GLOB
FIZZ
MITK
TTS
ENZ
FIVN
PLPM
TRUP

My entry points are as described in my newsletter.  Not only must the stock take out the entry buy-stop, but it must do it on projected volume.  This volume-price requirement will significantly reduce risk.

My end-of-day stops are as follows:

*TLK will be in trouble below 54.55
*WBMD has a stop of 63.30
*ORBK 25.17
*GLOB 36.49
*FIZZ 51.13
*MITK 8.57
*TTS 17.39
ENZ 6.10
FIVN 9.40
PLPM 4.12
TRUP  14.53

* indicates stocks with extremely favorable Effective Volume characteristics.

As always, none of these stocks should be considered recommendations to buy.  I am presenting my work for your continued research and diligence.

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Newsletter

I have finished the most recent copy of the newsletter and will send out today (Tuesday).  I simply need to proofread.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition (early May) is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Monday, May 23, 2016

The Earliest of Early Signals to Enter Long

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Outlook: short-term improving

Short-term:  bottoming characteristics are visible
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

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Cumulative Tick

Click on the image to enlarge.

Previous blog entries, as well as my latest newsletter(s), discuss the Cumulative Tick presentation.  Here is our current state:

1) the number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows are more/less equal.  This is to be expected as we move south, and although Friday was a "strong(er)" day, we are at the bottom of the range so I would expect that these two metrics would be at parity.  This indicator needs to improve with the number of 52-week new highs (green) significantly outpacing 52-week new lows (red).

2) The markets started buying right out of the starting blocks on Friday and sustained buying all day.  The rate was constant and cumulative.  This is a good sign (middle plot)

3) The instantaneous cumulative tick (white) has pulled above all moving averages and is above the slowest one (solid red line).  This is significant and the indicator has been tuned over years of use.  When we cross the red line from below we have met a significant criteria -- now we need the markets to follow through and maintain the upward trajectory.  If we continue to meander horizontally it will not be good for buying stocks; we need continued strength.

I will post a Cumulative Tick update via Investfeed or Twitter if I see something significant.  For now, note that we have the short-term makings of a recovery, but of course, your crystal ball is as good as mine.  We are very, very early in this, and I expect the short-term recovery will fail again before it advances.

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

Click on the image to enlarge.

Long-term readers will take a glance at the table and know we are not in a buying position for Monday, May 23rd.

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) is constructed by individually ranking over 3000 stocks in terms of historical outperformance and assigning a "long" or "cash" moniker to each.  Take the ratio of the two values (long divided by cash), apply moving averages, and look at the slope of the moving averages and you get a sense of how the table functions.  The left/center shows slope; the right/center shows "slope of the slope", or rate of change.

The far right shows a new indicator for publication -- simply a composite to get an idea of price trend, slope trend, and overall table trend.

  • The far LEFT shows the raw LCR.  It moved up +5% from Thursday's value and is now at 0.629.  For every 1000 stocks in the database, only 629 are long.  This is a snapshot in time and does not tell us which direction we are going, but it does help us understand where we are.
  • The left/middle is the slope area, and it is a sea of red.  All the slopes are pointing downward, which is indicative of falling stock prices across the board.  I do not advocate buying stocks when I see this type of presentation, except for Leaders.
  • The right/middle is the slope-of-the-slope area, and Friday was an up day, relative to Thursday.  This is the first step of a bottom being formed, and seeing it across all measured time frames is good.  We need more of this in order to turn the LEFT side of the table green.
The new presentation on the far right simply shows that we have positive movement in price trend AND some improvement in slope and the overall table.  We are not out of the woods yet.  I have highlighted recent periods in the past where this same presentation has failed ( "F" ), so beware.  

I believe that entering stocks right now, except for leading stocks, would be a mistake, at least on a short-term basis.  If your holding period is longer then I do believe it is time to get shopping lists ready.

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Percent Longs

Click on the image to enlarge.

This table is another view of the LCR, but shows the percentage of stocks that are "long" rated.  On the far right we are "in the green", so we are in a historically favorable area for buying, as far as statistics are concerned.  The number of observations is nearly 2000 so the indicator is significant.

Note that we are on the LEFT side of entering the green zone -- we need to make a turn and play around in this area before we get a rapid and sustained movement to the upside.  We are early and this is why I do not advocate buying stocks right now.  Nevertheless, we typically move higher once the turn starts, so I watch this indicator closely.

----> In the end, of the three figures, the LCR Table is the most powerful predictor for knowing when to enter the markets.


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All this being stated, there are stocks that I am watching for possible continued movement to the upside, independent of the broader market.  Remember, leaders LEAD:

ORBK
PLPM
WBMD

AOS
BR
OC
EBS
FRC
SYK

BSBR
CORE
FIVN
TRUP
PRMW

GPN
ISRG
SYK
CBSH
ORI

Here is the group performance, relative to the S&P500:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The upward-pointing blue line shows that this batch of stocks is worthy of further consideration in this market.  Whether they continue their upward march is anybody's guess -- it is important to have stop criteria in place if you invest counter-trend.

As always, none of these stocks should be considered recommendations to buy.  I am presenting my work for your continued research and diligence.

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Newsletter:

I intend to finish the most recent edition later today (Monday) and will email to registered subscribers.

I will be going into some depth on what makes a "Leader" and how I select them.  You'll probably want to register for the letter -- just sayin'.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Friday, May 20, 2016

Ignore the Bounce and Start a 3-day Weekend

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Outlook: (unchanged from Thursday)

Short-term:  markets are in a downtrend
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

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Cumulative Tick


Click on the image to enlarge

1) New 52-week lows DOMINATED new 52-week highs --> Do not buy stocks in this climate.
2) The overarching theme on the Cumulative Tick chart is that more stocks are being sold over a 1 day, 2 day, and into a 3 day period.  Until we see the white line above the red line, I'm on the sidelines for my intermediate and long-term stock selections.

Starting my 3-day weekend early.


Stocks that go out through my text alerting service are all Greenfield stocks but I do not advocate any purchases on an extended basis.  We have not established a floor.

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Newsletter:

I intend to finish the most recent edition this weekend and will email to registered subscribers.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj

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Twitter:

I've become more active on Twitter.  Find me at grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Pay Attention to the Leaders

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Outlook:

Short-term:  markets are in a downtrend
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

Long-Cash Ratio:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The very left shows a falling LCR:  more stocks are eroding in price than are gaining.  This is the "falling knife".

The middle/left shows a sea of red.  Every moving average, each with a unique measurement timeframe, is pointing downward.  Do not buy stocks, on a day-over-day basis, when this is happening.

The right side shows some green but it is not across the board.  The falling moving averages (middle/left) are starting to "slow" in their rates of descent, which is a necessary step to identifying a turning point.  We are not there as of Wednesday's close, so Thursday is an easy day:  no stock buying.

Cumulative Tick:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top shows that the number of stocks making new 52-week highs (green) is nearly equivalent to those making new 52-week lows.  Not a good buying climate.

The middle trace shows the impact of the FOMC minutes -- coasting/flat for the majority of the day, then sustained selling by algorithms as the market digested the minutes.  Interesting to me that the market starting sustained BUYING at exactly 1:00 p/ET and then SELLING at exactly 2:00 p/ET.  I re-iterate that the period between 11 a/ET and 2-ish is a dangerous period to buy (or sell) stocks.

The bottom trace is the money shot.  The cumulative tick war has been lost on a short-term basis, and now with the real-time CT line (bold white) below the solid red line all moving averages will start sloping downward.   I do not buy stocks when this is the situation, and I strongly urge you to reconsider entry to stocks for ANY time frame when this is the case.  The risk/reward simply is not there.

Leader's List

The list is getting thinner due to the recent market turndown.

The following stocks continue to exhibit strength despite the market conditions:

NCS
PATK
PLPM
STS
TTS
WBMD

Under no circumstances am I advocating that these stocks be bought.  These are "teaching stocks" -- you need to understand why these are leaders.

Click on the image to enlarge.

Frequent readers of this blog will see a common display on the left -- my "Greenfield" display.  I've written extensively about this and my most recent newsletter has details of the fields (near the back of the newsletter).  Get a free copy here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj 

The right side is new for readers, not-so-much for me.  The far right shows a leader's list and WEEKLY trend performance. The "-1d()" columns contain data from Tuesday, and the "Today()" column contains data from Wednesday.  Two "-1d()/Today()" pairs exist because I use confirming methods to look at the individual trend of the stock.

On the far right, I've circled a "Down/Up" indicator transition.  One exists for PLPM and the other for WBMD.  These stocks are just confirming, within the last week, that they are in an up trend on a weekly perspective.

You can see that on the left many stocks are in a downtrend on a day-over-day basis -- this is indicated by the red "Down".  The natural conclusion is that if this continues for these stocks that the weekly trend will be under attack -- this is the correct conclusion so it is prudent to stay away from these specific stocks.  Despite this observation, some of the leading stocks are working within this market.

As an example of this, PLPM is showing "Up" on a daily evaluation -- it is holding up well in this market on both a daily and weekly basis.  Here is what it looks like in a familiar candlestick chart:

Click on the image to enlarge

The two plots on the left are WEEKLY; the two plots on the right are DAILY.  The top two plots use the same method to look at trend (Method 1), and the bottom two plots use the same method but different from the top (Method 2).

You can see in the upper left that PLPM is transitioning to "Up" on a weekly basis.  You can see on the upper right (daily basis) that it has been moving upward for the past 3 days, and my trend indicator shows that it picked up on the daily trend change 5 days ago.

The bottom two plots (Method 2) both show that the weekly and daily "Up" trends are intact.

Again, I must caution, this is not a recommendation to enter PLPM or any of these stocks.  The market is in a downtrend.  The purpose here is to show you that my leading stocks are doing well in this climate and when I say "Leading" you have a good idea of what this means.

For those of you with itchy fingers, take a really close look at PATK.  The following multi-period quad chart is provided without commentary, for your review and learning:

Click on the image to enlarge

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Newsletter:

I received a couple of notes from folks asking when my next newsletter is going to be distributed.  Soon.  I intend to finish the most recent edition this weekend and will email to registered subscribers.  A combination of work, home-life, and focusing on streamlining/communicating market trends has prevented me from completing the most recent edition.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj 

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Twitter:

I've become more active on Twitter.  Find me at grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Saturday, May 14, 2016

Cumulative Tick Signals Bearish Move - Friday May 13 Close

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The Cumulative Tick indicator has made a short-term transition which indicates that I should not be buying stocks, at least in the short-term:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top trace shows the day-over-day behavior of 52-week New Highs (green) compared to 52-week New Lows (red).  Although red is below green, the difference (yellow) is quite low.  When this is the case stocks, as far as the NYSE is concerned, are dropping in prices and the sidelines/cash is a great position.

The middle trace shows algorithmic buying/selling.  When the trace moves upward we have buying, and when it is dropping we have selling.  It resets every day.  Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all saw significant drops in buying and a dominance in selling.  The bears clearly won the week.

The bottom trace is the cumulative tick (white) and various moving averages.  The longest moving average is the solid red line.  This has been "tuned" over the years and represents a good level to become cautious if the white line crosses from above.  Friday was the day, and hence, caution is advised on HOLDING positions, and certainly, I am not buying anything  (I may sell a few puts on contra ETFs though).

When the white trace is trading above the solid red trace, and the red trace is in an uptrend (pointing lower left to upper right), we are in an intermediate-termed uptrend.  When the white trace crosses from above the red trace will first move horizontal (like now), and if the white trace remains below the solid red trace, we will start to see more selling in the markets.

White-below-red is a short-term indicator but for Monday, it is very important to look at existing positions and unload any that are below entry points.  Lightening positions too would not be unwise.

It is quite possible that this is all a head-fake and that we will resume an orderly march upward in the broader markets.  If that is the case I will post something here -- I have an indicator that gives me a good view of when this starts to happen.

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As many of you know, this indicator is built on my Long-Cash Ratio.  Here is the table:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Next to the dates on the left side of the LCR table is a green (and now red) column of the raw Long-Cash Ratios.  Every stock in my GGT database has an assignment:  Long (okay to hold) or Cash (not okay to hold).  When I take the fraction Long/Cash I get the LCR value, which is presently 0.83, meaning that for every 830 stocks that are rated "Long", 1000 are rated "Cash".   More importantly, the number is falling, which means the number of stocks with a "cash" rating is growing on a day-over-day basis.

The left side of the table is a sea of red.  These are moving averages on multiple time frames, and what is important is that we see red, and have been seeing red for some time.  When this is the case a strong argument can be made that buying stocks is just plain stupid, unless you are an exceptional stock picker.  

The left side is telling me that "cash" is a position and it is a good one right now.

The right side is a bit more complicated -- it tells us how fast the LEFT side is changing, again on multiple time frames.  What I see on the right is somewhat of a mixed picture, but clearly, the emergence of the red on the RIGHT, in combination with the red on the LEFT, tells me that "the knife is falling and only fools try to catch it".

All this being said, when should we be looking to get back into buying positions?  The best time, at least from the perspective of my system, is when the LCR Table gives us the following presentation:

Click on the image to enlarge.

This shows the RIGHT side as a sea of green, and the LEFT side starting to transition from RED to GREEN.  We're not there.  Patience.  It always happens.  We simply need to wait for the setup.

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Strategy for Monday

Here are my non-option holdings:



All are holding up well in this climate.  All are at least 2.4% above the 21d EMA, and two closes below the 21d EMA would trigger an exit point for me.

I do not intend to purchase any new stocks that are considered GGT "long", despite the rating.

I have my "shopping lists" ready.  My Greenfield Leader's list has solid performers, but some of these are now under the 21d EMA so they are not entry candidates.  Stocks that continue to hold up well in this environment with the "best" fundamentals and relative strength are:

CENT
AMZN
STS
PATK
ERI
TLK
FB
COR
CORE
WBMD
HMSY
ORBK
SFBS
SIMO
ULTA

All this being said, there are a couple of notable stocks on this list:

COR:  This stock is attracting "quiet" money right now.  A close above 78,36 would be bullish and would trigger a stop loss level of 76.28 or so.  Certainly, a close above 79.42 would be extremely bullish, especially in this market climate.  Volatility is dropping but volume is moving upward, so keep an eye on this one.

SFBS:  Same as COR, more or less.  A close above 50.43 would trigger a stop loss level of 48.54.  A close above 51 would be extremely bullish.  Volatility is dropping while price tightens but volume remaining constant -- a tell-tale sign of accumulation.

More risky plays here are SIMO, FB, EFX, and FIZZ, but all show strong Large Effective Volume.

Again though, I do not intend to purchase any stocks on Monday.  Do your own diligence.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Short-term presentation is improving - as of close on May 10

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As expected, Tuesday's LCR table is showing that we may be hitting a local low and are due for a rise:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The left column shows the LCR, and if you look closely, it rose +5%.  Not a huge amount, but a positive change in a sea of red.

The left side of the table shows that on a day-over-day basis we are still dropping in terms of the number of stocks that are outperforming their historical, optimized averages.  N = 3054 so the number of measurements is significant.  The left side of the table indicates that I should be cautious.

The right side of the table shows one day of "green", e.g., the day-over-day change of the left side of the table is positive.  The right side says "get your shopping lists ready".  The left side says "we are too early to enter en masse".

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The NYSE Cumulative Tick chart is also short- and medium-term bullish:


Click on the image to enlarge.

I've covered this and the LCR table to a large extent in my newsletters, so please take the time to read those.  Here's the latest:   goo.gl/e75Ayj

There is nothing bearish about the CT chart, at least as of the close of markets on Tuesday.  These are all short-term bullish patterns.

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Three dividend stocks that are worthy of  consideration here are

CLX
DPS
EXR

All are pushing new 52-week highs.  All have decreasing volatility.  All have signs of big-boy institutional buying, even at these levels.  

I like CLX above 132.99 with an initial stop loss of two closes below 127.81.
I like DPS above 95.88 with an initial stop loss of 93.24
I like EXR above 94.13 with an initial stop loss of 91.10

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On the Leaders front, high on my radar are:

BANC
FB
UFPI

BANC is holding the 21d EMA very tightly.  A gap fill back to 19.87 and a subsequent breakout above 19.87 would be bullish.  This stock appears to be being accumulated by institutions.  Surprisingly, there is little overhead resistance above 20.00, and a close above 20 would likely turn it into support and then we could see a major move upwards.  There is some supply resistance at 20.64 and the new 52-week high is 20.85, adding a bit more of supply resistance.  Nevertheless, worth of watching.

FB continues to perform well, but volume is extremely low since the gap up on 4/28.  After dipping below the 21d EMA yesterday, it recovered nicely and finished strong.  Huge-huge-huge support at 117.51, so a natural stop loss could exist there.  A close below 116.57 would make me re-evaluate my long position -- for now I intend to hold and possibly add if it breaks out from here.  This is a new "bowtie" breakout of the 8d, 21d, and 34d EMAs.  A close above 120.79 on volume would be a huge signal to enter.

UFPI may allow an entry above 84.16, and if this occurs, two good support points are 83.90 and 82.60 (with additional support at the 50d MA at 82.17).  Pick your poison - well defined stop losses.  If UFPI can close above 87.34 there is virtually no overhead supply resistance so this could take off.  The stock appears to be accumulated using Effective Volume tools.  This is a new "bowtie" breakout of the 8d, 21d, and 34d EMAs.

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I'm on the sidelines for the most part.  I still continue to hold COR, CTWS, EFX, FB, FIVN, FIZZ, and a position in VXX, as well as a few puts in EBIX, IPHI, and VXX.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd