Thursday, July 5, 2012

Update for Thursday, July 5th -- Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Timers LONG

Last Friday northern Virginia experienced a severe weather event that knocked power out at my home from Friday to late July 3rd. I'm back on line, and as luck would have it, GGT detected a simultaneous entry into the markets with Friday's close that I didn't discover until later on the 3rd. I don't chase signals, so I intend to wait for a pullback to enter at this time.

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With Friday's close (6/29), both the 4d LCR (short-term timer) and the Elder (intermediate) timers moved long. GGT is up 1.66% since this time if you entered at the open Monday (I obviously did not since I could not run my analysis), so this may be a haircut that I simply have to endure. Note that the long-term 13/65 day timer is still in cash, which is holding my portfolio mostly in cash. We are still days away from a "all-clear" signal to enter the markets en masse, although it certainly is possible that selected stocks should be played to the long side.

A number of stocks look interesting to me at the present time:

ALXN
CATM
CHDN
CPHD
DDD
ECHO
GPX
HCII
INWK
ISRG
MIC
SEM

Another list that I'm looking at screening in terms of EV is this:

AKRX
AME
ARSD
AUXL
CHDN
CSTR
CXPO
CYNO
DLR
DRH
LDL
LKQ
MIC
MWIV
SWI
SYPR
TGH
TITN

There may be some overlap between the two lists, as they are derived by different criteria. Certainly not a recommendation to buy; do your diligence. What is most important here is that these have favorable fundamentals and technically, have good set ups. 

The broader ETFs are slow to the party, with IWC, SSO, TNA, and SPXL being the only ones with a "long" type of status. Note that the short/contra ETFs clearly signalled their exit with Friday's action. You can review these ETFs in the Dropbox file folder that many of you receive.

My plan for today is to watch for good stocks offering good entry points and to enter between 0.5% and 2.0% risk positions in the candidates. If I do not have MAE data available, I intend to use 2 * ATR(20) as my MAE / stop level from my entry. I'm not loading up here, due to the long-term timer being still in CASH, but I'm interested in getting some initial positions in play.

Here are the charts:










Regards,


pgd