Monday, November 7, 2016

Not taking the bounce today (Monday, Nov 7)

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The news over the weekend has created a large jump upward in futures, indicating that we will rocket upwards today.

Perhaps.

I am nearly 100% in cash right now, and intend to stay there.  I do not intend to buy any CC's or NPs, even though we are at a possible turning point.

The following figure shows that we have some repair to go through before I will start buying:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top row of plots are daily 52-week new highs (green), 52-week new lows (red), and their net (yellow).  Any time red is over green is a bad sign for buying, as more stocks are hitting lows than highs.

I like to put my money to work in expanding markets, not contracting.

The middle row of plots are daily indications of algorithmic buying.  The number resets daily.  When the red line is above the blue line, more than 500 stocks per minute are ending on an up-tick, meaning that supply is getting more scarce, driving prices upward.  You see the converse above -- supply is becoming more plentiful, driving prices downward.  When we see the afternoons selling off and effectively moving negative, then more people (and algos) are unloading so that they do not have to carry their trades over night.  Now, there is obviously a buyer on the other side of these trades, but the presentation shows that the tick is DOWN after the trade, which means there were more bottom fishers waiting and prices were lower.

When I see the trace heading lower I simply refrain from buying en masse.

The bottom plot is the cumulative tick, and it is a running accumulator that stretches back to 2011 and it shows minute-over-minute net of buying and selling.  When the white trace, which is the real-time CT, is below all of the lines (like now), it means that not only is selling dominating, it is doing so consistently, day-over-day.  The solid red line that you see also shows a negative slope, and historically, this is my threshold.  If that line is pointing down I do not enter the markets on a broad scale.

While I have a few trial balloons waiting to enter the market in my Greenfield Dividends portfolio, for the most part I nearly 100% in cash.

If the presentation or my stance changes in a notable manner I will post an update here.

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Make sure you vote Tuesday if you have not.  As a veteran, we signed a pledge to give our lives so that you have that right.  The least you can do is take the time to exercise that right in accordance with your beliefs.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd



Sunday, October 30, 2016

Newsletter Posted - Research into Connors High Probability Trading Strategies

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I have written a lengthy newsletter that is available for download:  http://goo.gl/4yscUA

This newsletter is focused on laying the foundation of analyzing the work of Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez, whom produced a guide in 2009 entitled "High Probability ETF Trading:  7 Professional Strategies to Improve Your ETF Trading".  This is part 1 of a multi-series.

Here is my summary from the newsletter:

This newsletter has focused on work conducted by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez of Connors Research, LLC.  The team has provided a number of high probability strategies that they claim are tradeable and that make money.  While this is true in some context, there are a number of omissions in their presentation:

  • There is no treatment of stop losses.
  • There is no treatment of profit targets.
  • There is no treatment of position sizing / money management.
  • There is no treatment of using all 7 strategies simultaneously, which obviously relies on having available cash when signals present themselves.
  • The impact of commissions.

Given these omissions, it is difficult to deploy their system “out of the book” without undertaking considerable risk.

To address this, EdgeRater and TradeStation offer tools that can be used to dig deeper and establish rules to help guide filling in the gaps that were omitted by Connors/Alvarez.  Whether any of the strategies are able to be traded is to be seen, but the foundational components of the EdgeRater and TradeStation tools have been described in context of Connors’/Alvarez’s work through the end of 2008.

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Feedback is appreciated and solicited -- contact info is in the Newsletter.  Of course, you can leave a comment here too.

Regards,

pgd


Monday, October 24, 2016

Buying Continues - Getting the Shopping Lists Ready

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Cumulative Tick



Click on the image to enlarge.

For those of you who follow the cumulative tick (CT), you saw it steadily improve last week, possibly presenting a short-term change in trend.  Refer to the figure that I've posted.

The top plot shows the number of new highs (NH) and new lows (NL) that are occurring on the NYSE.  Tuesday through Friday saw NHs being generated, indicating that prices were moving upward.  Only Monday of last week saw more NL than NH, which was more/less negated throughout the remainder of the week.  From last Monday's perspective, caution was/is certainly advised.

The middle plot shows relatively strong buying early in the trading days on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as a weak Thursday and Friday.  The algorithmic buying trends are upward, so we need to pay attention to a possible short-term turn in the markets.

The bottom plot is the CT.  The white trace is the real-time, 1-minute trace, and everything else is a moving average.  When the white trace is above all the other traces, which occurred this past Friday October 21st, we should take note.  

Note taken.

Long-Cash Ratio

The GGT Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table is starting to turn positive, but we are not there yet:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The left side of the LCR figure shows that we have a very low ratio of stocks that are rated long to those that are rated cash (hence the L-C Ratio).  Anything below 1.0 means that cash-rated stocks dominate, and anything above 1.0 means that long-rated stocks dominate.

Whereas the raw LCR number on the left is a snapshot in time, the left-portion of the red-dominated table shows various moving averages of the LCR.  Important here is that down-markets are denoted by red, and up-markets are denoted by green.

The fact that we only have the 2d and 3d moving averages with a slope that is positive (green) indicates we are REALLY EARLY in any possible move to the upside.  More importantly, if you look back to the presentation in September, you see that these signals have been weak and have typically failed.  It has been hard to be a trend follower the past month.  Nevertheless, your crystal ball is as good as mine, and I have to be ready for the next possible move upward.

Here is what I'm looking for in the LCR table:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The key to the table above is the transition of the 8d LCR slope to green.  I've put a solid black line around it, as it tends to be the confirmation day for the markets moving upward.  Note that the right side of the table is a sea of green, which indicates that the day-over-day change of the slope (also known as acceleration) is positive.  We have more/less that same thing going on now with the present setup.

Greenfield Dividends

My Greenfield Dividends portfolio at Collective2 ( https://collective2.com/details/94780986 ) continues to do well, relative to the S&P 500.  Rules changed just after the January 2016 drop in markets and have been in place since February 1st, 2016.  Here's the performance plot since February:

Click on the image to enlarge.



The account has a significant amount of cash right now and is attempting to re-join the markets, but is having a difficult time finding improving stocks.  Subscribers of this portfolio receive automated emails of new orders and can follow the trades as they wish.  There will be a flurry of orders pending as markets turn, but once capital is deployed, the account falls into more of a maintenance mode with a few signals generated nightly as conditions dictate.  The more horizontal the markets, the more orders that are generated.  

Basic entry rules are these:
  1. The candidate stock must pay a dividend that is steady to increasing.
  2. The candidate stock must have accelerating revenues AND earnings relative to the same quarter a year ago as well as on a TTM basis.
  3. The candidate stock must be GGT rated as "New Long", "Affirmed Long", or be in a weekly/daily setup that supports movement to the upside on the day that the order is placed.  This shows both price and volume increases (stock is in demand relative to a set of optimized moving averages and rates of change).
  4. The candidate stock must be above the 21d exponential moving average (EMA).
  5. The candidate stock must not have earnings being announced on the day of entry.
My goal with this portfolio is capital appreciation as well as capturing dividends.  It is my intent to hold these stocks as long as possible.  I just unloaded AO Smith, which I held since May 2016.  Note that AOS went up a significant amount in this time, but not all stocks are as stellar as AOS.  The current holdings in this portfolio are as presented -- and some of these stocks have re-entry orders pending for Monday, October 24th.  Note that CZZ is on a tear and my system identified it early as it was taking off:


Click on the image to enlarge.

NTRI will report earnings this week, as will JBT and AM, so they will be reduced to core positions just prior to earnings release.  This methodology captures gains (or small losses) and ensures that exposure is reduced to possible bad news.

Strategy

My list of quality stocks, both dividend and non-dividend, is producing the following group performance:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top plot shows the group performance relative to the S&P500 for the past month and *if* I had purchased the entire list of stocks with equal weighting, performance would be as shown.  The price plot in the middle shows the group price and the 21d EMA, 50d MA, and the 200d MA.  Clearly, these stocks are all in an uptrend.  

Capturing this performance is not realistic for me.  I do not have a strategy nor enough money in my portfolios to buy 47 different positions so this is a blue-sky approach.  Maintenance of this number of positions also becomes a challenge in managing time.  Nevertheless, if you want an equity curve that moves from the lower left to the upper right then -- wait for it -- you have to buy stocks that are moving from the lower left to the upper right.

My list shows those.  

Subscribers to my Dropbox folder have access to this list for free.

Stocks from this list that:
  1. Pay dividends
  2. Are GGT buy candidates or
  3. Are in a weekly/daily uptrend 
  4. Are above their 21d EMA
  5. Have accelerating earnings and revenues
are:

AM, DLNG, and PZZA.  Note that AM announces earnings on Wednesday, so do your homework.  These are not recommendations to buy -- you MUST review these stocks in detail.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a stock worthy of further consideration.  This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Please do not use my stock files for your own professional (paid) gain.  

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  

Regards,

pgd




Thursday, September 29, 2016

End of Month-Quarter Window Dressing?

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This past weekend I gave a presentation where I stated it was time to get our shopping lists together.

Of course, as frequently occurs with Friday signals, Monday was a terrible day, effectively reversing the signal on a day-over-day basis:

Click on the image to enlarge.

If you look closely, you can see that the end-of-day (EOD) data for Monday, September 26th, showed that my LCR indicator had completely reset (left side of table, entire row is red-red-red).  This is a signal (to me) that this is not a "confirmation" of the uptrend nor is it an opportunity to enter the markets.  In fact, it literally raised the red flag.  The majority of my stock orders for Monday did NOT trigger and expired at the end of the normal trading day.  This is by design, and is why I only purchase strength.

On the other hand, this past Tuesday and Wednesday, with a focus on Wednesday, have seen significant stability and increase in volume AND prices in the market.  I know this because the only way the LCR table turns "more green" is if more stocks are classified "LONG", and in my system, they need both price and volume increases to achieve this.

This change in buying pressure can be seen with another tool I use, the Cumulative Tick:


Click on the image to enlarge.

If you are not familiar with the Cumulative Tick you should be.  Read the page here.

I've covered the presentation above numerous times in previous blogs.  Top plot:  52week daily high/lows.  Interpretation:  new highs outpacing new lows.  This is good.  This is an overall buying climate.

Middle plot:  Strength of buying and selling.  Trending upwards means sustained buying on a tick-over-tick or minute-over-minute basis.  You can see for yourself that the midpoint of the past two days has been strong.

Bottom plot.  the white trace is the instantaneous cumulative tick.  Moving upward is good, and moving upward above all the other moving averages (in color) is even better.  Whether we sustain the upwards movement is anybody's guess -- your crystal ball is as good as mine.

This is a buying climate, and I have a large number of orders placed for today (9/29).

Strategy

Simple.  I start with Greenfield stocks (read the presentation and listen to the presentation here).

For the Greenfield Dividends portfolio ( https://goo.gl/pKn45X ) I sort the list into Dividend paying stocks.  In general, these stocks are Dividend Challengers, Contenders, and Champions as defined by David Fish (google him).

The stock must be above it's 21d EMA.

Any stock that is rated GGT "New Long" or "Affirmed Long" is slated for purchase if it is not in the portfolio, and re-purchase if it is already in the portfolio.  

My entry price for a BUY STOP is 1.001 x yesterday's high.  The order is a day-order only.  If it does not fill it expires at the end of the day and goes to the expired orders place in the clouds.

I will also slate for purchase any stock meeting a new uptrend criteria that I have developed.  You will see this referred to as my "BT Strategy".  I've not released the strategy for public consumption, but you will see the trades in the Greenfield Dividends portfolio.

The Dropbox file contains a list, updated through September 28th, of all stocks in my universe meeting the Greenfield criteria.  You need to be a member of my Dropbox in order to see that list.  I will not be putting links on this web any more because I cannot track who is downloading and using the data for their paid services (you know who you are).  Disclosure:  IF YOU DOWNLOAD A FILE FROM MY DROPBOX, I SEE THAT YOU DID SO.  Don't be worried about this unless you have something to be worried about.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a stock worthy of further consideration.  This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Please do not use my stock files for your own professional (paid) gain.  

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  

Regards,

pgd

Monday, September 26, 2016

Short-term re-entry signal and recorded video link

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

We had a face-to-face investment group meeting this past weekend with the AAII Computer Investing Special Interest Group (CI-SIG).  Don't let the name throw you -- this meeting was focused on the three main points:

1) a new short-term entry signal has developed so get your shopping list ready.
2) learn how I find stocks with increasing earnings and revenue growth
3) learn some preliminary results regarding the 21d EMA Buy/Sell rules (favorable)

The PDF to the presentation is here:  https://goo.gl/rVIBXg

The presentation was recorded and can be viewed here: https://goo.gl/NxsHLs    The video is too large to embed in this blog, so you will have to use the link to view.

I welcome comments and feedback -- I spend a great deal of time preparing for these presentations and I want to ensure they are relevant for the participants.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a stock worthy of further consideration.  This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  

Regards,

pgd



Wednesday, September 7, 2016

New Entry Signal - September 7 Trading Day

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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Market Overview - New short-term entry signal

Long-Term Timer:  Long
Intermediate-Term Timer: Long
Short-Term Timer: New Long

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Long-Cash Ratio

The LCR measures the number of stocks that are rising in both price and volume ("long") and those that are falling in price and/or volume ("cash").  When I apply various moving averages to this number, I get a sense of the rate that this is happening.  Specifically, looking at the slopes of these moving averages -- or their rates of change -- gives me insight.

A sweet spot for jumping into the markets exists when we go from a  negative slope to a positive slope on the 8-day moving average for the LCR:

Click on the image to enlarge.

I've circled where we have just crossed into this zone, so "the pump is primed", so to speak.  The action from here is to get shopping lists ready and if stocks continue to break out, enter base positions on those stocks.

All this being said, I think it important to note that this signal could be weak.  We are presently in the 43rd day of a short-term up trend on the Q's, according to Wishing Wealth Blog (http://wishingwealthblog.com/).  I've a considerable amount of respect for Dr. Wish, and as far as market timers go, his timers are as good as any.  43 days in any short-term timer is to be considered "long in the tooth".

Strategy

I would like to see continued follow-through on the buying.  Nevertheless, my buying rules remain intact and unchanged:
  1. Start with a quality list of stocks.  I have my own definition of this -- ask if you are interested.
  2. Pick stocks that are GGT "long" rated.  If you are using the TradeStation tool I've developed, then ensure they say "Buy" for the most recent day.
  3. Set an entry price that is 1.01 * the previous day's high.  Use a BUY STOP, Day-Order only (expires when the market closes).
  4. Rinse and repeat.
As stated in my previous blog, my Greenfield Dividend strategy is performing well.  You can follow the trades for free for 30 days at https://collective2.com/details/94780986.  After some adjustments to the rules due to the January massacre, February onward is acceptable and is beating the S&P 500.  See my previous blog entry.

Three stocks that are from my Leader's list and are signalling entry for Wednesday are:

EXEL, GTT, XIN

These stocks are not dividend payers but are showing extremely good price and volume action here.

Conversely, if you are holding ATSG and VCRA, you may want to review those positions, as a sell signal just fired with Tuesday's action.

I'm really paying attention to these symbols today:

EBIX
JBT
MKTX
SCVL
PZZA
DW
CZZ
AMAT
THO
GK
CTRE
SPKE
EVA

They are not perfect, but they all have very good traits and are worthy of my money if they continue moving higher.  These all pay dividends.  I hold several of these.

Note that SCVL is rated "cash" or "Avoid".  Despite this status, it is within a day or two of changing status.

If you subscribe to my Twitter alerts (free!  See below.) you'll see if these continue higher on volume, as the system will automagically tweet when it detects this is occurring.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a stock worthy of further consideration.  This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The equities I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Sunday, September 4, 2016

Labor Day Weekend Update

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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After a brief hiatus I am back in the saddle again.  It has been a whirlwind summer.  Before I get to the markets portion let me offer something that Kari and I are both very proud of:  both of our boys competed at USA Diving Nationals, and my oldest son (Greg) is now ranked #2 in the country on both the 1m and 3m springboards and my youngest son (Sam) is 13th and 20th respectively.

Furthermore, Greg qualified for the World Championships in Kazan, Russia in late November.

Here are a couple of pictures I took during their competition; click on any of the images to enlarge:

Greg:


Greg:


Sam:


Sam:


Oh, to be a teenager again.  Suffice to say I was *never*, even as the physical training coordinator for our Navy base, in the shape that these boys are in.  Simply amazing, and diving is an amazing sport.

So, onto the markets...

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Market Overview - Difficult Time for the General Market

Long-Term Timer:  Long
Intermediate-Term Timer: Cash
Short-Term Timer: Cash, Improving to Long (but not there yet)

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Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) Table



Click the image to enlarge.

The LCR directly measures the number of stocks that are rated "long" versus those that are rated "cash".

A "long"-rated stock is outperforming in BOTH price AND volume (price is moving up, as is volume).

A "cash"-rated stocks is underperforming in price and perhaps volume and is not being accumulated.

When I apply various moving averages to this day-over-day measurement, I get a sense of stocks being accumulated and stocks being sold.  The "slope" -- or rate of change of the number of stocks that are being accumulated will go up as more and more stocks are being accumulated, and it will drop as they are being sold.

It really is that simple.  The magic is in determining how to rate a stock "long" and how to rate a stock "cash".

Takeaway:  the left side of the table shows a sea of red.  On most of the measured time frames the slope is DOWN (red), meaning, this is a really difficult time to buy stocks.  The analogy is that the tide is flowing out.

I have provided the LCR state back to July so you can see how this market has been weakening, ever-so-slowly, over time.  Sure there are periods of strength, but there is no sustained reversal to the upside.

The "strong" movement of markets this past Friday only resulted in a +4% change in the LCR -- not a very strong move at all.  Overall, nothing to get excited about.

I am waiting to see the 8d column -- shown in the black box -- to turn green.  That will be a "full up" signal to get in on this leg.  Until then, caution my friends.  If you choose to enter the markets here, you'd better be really good at picking stocks that are not correlated with the overall markets.  I have many positions working, but they were purchased some time ago and are somewhat ignoring the market gyrations.

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Cumulative Tick


Click the image to enlarge.

The cumulative tick (CT) figure shows intra-day buying and selling.  I have put three different components on the figure:

1) top:  52-week new highs (green), 52-week new lows (red), and their difference (yellow)
2) middle:  daily filter on the strength of buying (moves upward) or selling (moves downward).  This is presently set to 500 stocks PER MIN filter setting, meaning, it takes 500 stocks per minute all moving upward to get 1 little tick upward. 
3) bottom:  the cumulative tick (white), and various moving averages (colored).

Regarding 1):  we want to buy stocks when the broad market has stocks making new 52-week highs, at least significantly greater than 52-week lows.  Friday was very strong -- but if you look back over the week, you saw many stocks having problems.  Takeaway:  we are still in a buyer's market and there is demand for stocks

Regarding 2):  extremely strong buying at the market open on Friday due to the jobs report.  It was steady throughout the day (from the bottom white trace) BUT it was not huge like after the opening.  Takeaway:  a good sign.

Regarding 3):  Complete reversal of the CT.  This is good, and necessary for moving back to the upside, but a reversal of the CT is only one component.  A good sign is buying into the close (look at the white trace), so we ended on a positive note.  Positive, but not fully sufficient.

Takeaway:  The CT reversal is good, but as you saw in the LCR presentation, we have had many since the beginning of August so we need a sustained follow through.  

Patience grasshopper, patience.

Strategy

I have two portfolios at Collective2, one is a dividend portfolio, the other is the leaders portfolio.  Performance in the dividend portfolio has been great (a general demand for stocks that pay dividends) and performance in the leaders has not been great.  We're not seeing large breakouts in leading stocks hence the Leaders portfolio is 

If you are interested in subscribing to the Greenfield Dividends portfolio and following the trades, you can do so by clicking the following link:


The first 30 days are risk-free so you can kick the tires and trade with me, if you choose.

After a rocky start in January 2016 (with the Greenfield Dividends portfolio), performance since then has been acceptable.  After January's debacle I tweaked the money management rules and applied them in February and onward, and am pleased with the results since:

February:  +4.5% gain, S&P 500 was flat at -0.1%
March:  +2.1% gain, S&P 500 was up 5.5%
April:  -1.4% loss, S&P 500 was up +0.9%
May: -1.1% loss, S&P 500 was up +1.4%
June:  +2.4% gain, S&P 500 was flat at +0.2%
July:  +4.5% gain, S&P 500 was +3.6%
August:  +3.3% gain, S&P 500 was flat at 0.0%

I have almost erased the mistake I made in January, having recovered almost all of the 15%...   Here is the performance chart since February 2, 2016:

Click the image to enlarge.

There were two major tweaks:

1) lowering exposure to earnings release (ER).  This requires defining a base or core position size, which is approximately 2.5% of my account value.  I place an order to reduce the size of the position to the core just before the close of markets, just prior to ER.
2) letting the portfolio time itself.  This is an active management rule but it works if the stocks are not correlated with the broader indexes and timer signals.  If the stocks you are holding, as a group, are breaking down, then its time to raise cash - it doesn't matter what the overall market is doing.  Conversely, if they continue to perform well, while the market drops, continue to hold, despite the timers, etc.

Both of these are working well through two ER cycles.  Of course, going forward is unknown -- your crystal ball is as good as mine.

My goal is to beat the S&P by a significant amount by the end of the January 2017 month.  This date is simply the date that I changed management rules for the account.

Takeaway:  I continue to manage the Greenfield Dividend strategy at C2, and also mirror it within my own portfolio.  I continue to buy stocks that meet the Greenfield Dividend strategy screening criteria, but as of late, am simply re-investing into currently held positions as fewer and fewer stocks have passed screening (with the exception of this past Friday -- numerous stocks look like candidates).

For the record, this is what is currently being held in the account, as well as the most recent GGT recommendation and my present thinking:

Symbol GGT Recommendation Comments
AMAT Hold
AOS Buy
CINF Hold
CMN Hold
CZZ Buy
DW Hold
EBIX Hold
FRC Hold
GPN Buy
MELI Buy
MKTX Buy
MSCI Buy
MTN Hold
NTES Buy
NXRT Hold
OC Hold
POOL Hold Fails 2x21d EMA test and order to sell has been placed
RMP Hold
TD Buy
THO Hold
TTC Hold
UFPI Hold
XIN Hold Under price pressure; closely watching for sell signal
Of course, none of this is a recommendation that you should buy any of these stocks.  Do your diligence please.

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My other strategies (Greenfield Leaders, selling VXX puts, BT) are still valid.  As mentioned above, the Greenfield Leaders strategy is moving all over the place.  The money management plan and rules stabilized and were put in place May 1, with the following results since then:

I know, nothing to write home about, but a few months does not make or break a strategy.  Backtesting this method is very, very good but certainly, there were periods where the strategy and the markets were not in sync.  I continue despite the underperformance.

Regarding the selling of VXX puts -- there has not been any signals to enter this strategy.  Volatility is incredibly low, and the markets keep grinding higher.  I have a large amount of cash simply waiting to deploy once the markets turn -- but may deploy that capital with other stocks if this recent attempted breakout this past Friday holds.  

The BT strategy is a new strategy which gets me completely away from GGT signals.  It has nothing to do with the market overall and marches to its own drummer.  If the stocks in the portfolio are doing well, then it will continue to hold.  If the stocks in the portfolio are falling, then it will exit.  Again, both of these rules are independent of the S&P 500.  I'm holding 6 stocks in this portfolio right now, and will pick up a final 7th position on Tuesday if it breaks out to the high side.  Stay tuned.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a stock worthy of further consideration.  This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The equities I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd



Friday, July 22, 2016

VXX is signalling a reversal

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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Market Overview - Fully Long, but "long" in the tooth too.

Long-Term Timer:  Long
Intermediate-Term Timer: Long
Short-Term Timer: Long, Under Pressure

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

The left side of the table is indicating that we are fully long on all time frames but the right side is showing weakness:


Click on the image to enlarge.

On the far left, a LCR value of 2.423 indicates that we are extremely overbought and that a reversal is possible.  Sure, we can continue to move upwards (the markets climb a wall of worry and we are in earnings season), but the high values indicate a certain level of caution.

The right side shows red on some time frames, green on others.  This is a mixed message, but with red creeping in, and more importantly, the "hit" we took on Tuesday with everything showing red, indicates that we should be more cautious.  Buying stocks now that are correlated with the S&P 500 (or the GGT index, which looks mostly like the NAS or R2K right now) could be a losing strategy.

If you're not in the market at the present time, I would keep your powder dry with respect to stocks.

VXX Naked Put Strategy

A number of my readers attended our local AAII meeting this past Saturday and Alan Ellman, of the Blue Collar Investor, was the presenter.  I was unable to attend, but note that I am a subscriber to his service and like his approach.

Alan teaches investing with options, and the approach is sound.  It is a conservative approach, and he uses Covered Calls (CC) as well as writing Naked Puts (NP) as a focal point.  I focus on naked puts as this generally uses less capital, and it ties in closer with certain transitions within my GGT strategy.

We are nearing one of those transitions.  Whether we are there today (Friday) remains to be seen -- futures are up as I write but not very strongly.

The VXX is an ETF that moves with volatility of the markets.  I prefer it to other ETFs for CC/NP writing, but also fully buy into the view of writing NPs on quality stocks that are at a local minimum in the markets but are in an uptrend.

VXX is NOT in an uptrend, but is signalling that it is hitting bottom.  I doubt today will be the day to enter, but I could see entering a position in VXX quite soon if the short-term topping formation in the markets continues.


Click on the image to enlarge.

The left two panels show a daily analysis of VXX, and the right two panels show a 78-minute analysis, which is 1/5 of the daily trading interval.  I watch the 78 minute, daily, weekly, and monthly charts for many of my stocks.

The top left shows a "new uptrend" using one of my two trend-identification methods.   I have noted this as "NU".  You can see that the line is below the daily bar, and this is new as of Thursday's action, which is why it appeared on my radar scan last evening.

The bottom left has not confirmed this and indicates that VXX is still in a downtrend.  Note that any strength in the VXX above Thursday's high will trigger the signal to a "NU"; the trend analysis is a "ratchet" in that it can only move lower until it doesn't, which then causes a new uptrend to occur.

With Friday's futures pointing higher I do not think the VXX is moving upward, but of course, your crystal ball is as good as mine.

On the right side, you see that on the 78-minute bar time frame, we have a NU for VXX using two independent trending methods.  This is a necessary requirement for the left side to move higher -- and consequently, this too is why VXX appeared on my radars last night.

All I need is the confirming "NU" on the lower left window to tell me that an initial trial balloon in VXX could be a good choice.

VXX is one of the most liquid ETFs on the market.  VXX 160819P11, which is the August 19th put option with a strike of $11 (current price of the VXX is $11.34) presently has an open interest in excess of 60,000 contracts and a spread of $0.03.  Liquidity and spread are important if you need to exit a contract.  It is also important when it comes time to enter the contract.

If the VXX moves up from here, writing a naked put (NP) on this contract will pay about $73 for a single contract.  Here's the risk profile:


Click on the image to enlarge.

This graph is indicating that a single contract in VXX 160819P11 will pay $73 if the price remains above the strike price of $11 by the August 19th expiration.  This includes my round-trip commissions.  Below $11 the amount that the contract pays is less, and a break-even occurs at $10.27 (not shown but that is where the blue line intersects the $0 line).  Below $11 on August 19th the contract will most likely be assigned and you'll have to buy the VXX at whatever price it is below $11, resulting in the reduction in profits.

Let's suppose that the VXX moves up from here by August 19th.  Because I am selling the contract, I would collect $74 today ($75 credit less $1 write commission as of today).  This would be a credit to my account. If assigned @ 11.00 my total return would be 7.12% = (75-1-1)  / (1100-75).  Your commission structure may be different so your round-trip commissions could be higher/lower per contract. 

Hence, as long as VXX moves upwards from $11 I could collect the full premium.

Here is the summary:


Click on the image to enlarge.

Of course, if we continue to climb the wall of worry then VXX will continue to drop and if it drops below $10.27 on or before August 19th, we are at our break-even point.  

I note that the implied volatility (IV) is presently 72.95% with the average implied volatility at 71.32%, so we have IV rising above historical and I expect VXX premiums to increase.  This is desired as this means I collect more for writing the contract.

There is a strike in VXX at $10.50.  Here are those numbers:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The table shows that if we lower the strike to $10.50 in VXX, same expiration, then we drop about 2.4% in possible maximum profit to 4.69% and we lower our break-even level to $10.03.  This is a very good return so this could be a further consideration.  Note that this contract (VXX 160819P10.5) is currently trading at $0.49.

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In the end, I will not pull the trigger on writing a NP on VXX today unless I see the daily trend (lower left in the quad chart above) also move to a "NU" signal.  We are close, but I need the markets to indicate that volatility for stocks in general is moving upward.  We have the start of this, but it is not confirmed.

Certainly, the Weekly trend charts (not shown) are still quite bearish and have some time before they move to a NU.  VXX has to rise above 14.91 AND 13.17 in order to get both weekly charts to move to a confirmation of a market downtrend/VXX uptrend.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a Greenfield Leader stock.  Here is a portion of my Twitter feed from yesterday:



This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  These would be stocks that would be ideal for a CC or NP strategy, provided that the market cycle confirms (it presently does not so be careful).

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The equities I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Thursday, July 7, 2016

New Short-Term Buy Signal

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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Market Overview - New Short-Term Buy Signal

Long-Term Timer:  Long, finished the day stronger
Intermediate-Term Timer: Cash
Short-Term Timer: Cash

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

We have a transition in the LCR Table:

Click on the image to enlarge.

While not overly "strong", a transition is a transition and I'm taking the signal.  The right side of the table looks relatively strong off the bottom, but clearly, Tuesday's action was volatile and weak and it detracts from the upward movement.

This being said, the transition indicated on the left side of the table is clear and is a confirmed short-term entry signal.

Strategy

Standard rules apply:

  1. Buy strength; do not buy weakness.  I buy stocks that are moving higher, not lower.  You do whatever you want but this method works best for me over the longer haul.  Please do not write me to tell me the method leaves money on the table -- I does not and I'll challenge you to prove otherwise.  Come prepared if you engage me on this because I have years of data to prove otherwise.
  2. Buy stocks above their 21d exponential moving average.  No exceptions, since dropping below the 21d EMA for 2 consecutive days will trigger a sell signal.
  3. Buy stocks that are in an uptrend on the monthly, weekly, and daily time frames.  While some exceptions are allowed, the exceptions do not apply this early in a short-term signal.
  4. Buy stocks that are rated "Buy" or "New Long" or "Affirmed Long" using my GGT measurement criteria.  Free of charge to subscribe, but you need to request access.  See below.
  5. Buy stocks that have rising revenues and earnings, measured on multiple time frames.  These are my "Greenfield" stocks and I provide the listings in my Dropbox folder that I share.
Dropbox lists are updated as of 9:00 a/ET, July 7.

From a money management perspective, I am targeting 100% invested in the Greenfield Dividend portfolio.  However, there are not enough stocks in the list to get me to that point.

For the Greenfield Leaders portfolio, I am targeting 65% or so invested.  There may be enough stocks on the list today if we have a good day.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here (if I have listed any) are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Wednesday, July 6, 2016

No Change from Tuesday, July 5 - No New Buy Signal

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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Market Overview - No Change from Friday, July 1st

Long-Term Timer:  Long, weaker than start
Intermediate-Term Timer:
Short-Term Timer:

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

Click on the image to enlarge.

We made no progress on Tuesday; in fact, we lost a bit of ground.  An ideal buying signal looks like this:

Click on the image to enlarge.

When the left side 8d transitions to "green" it generally is a good time to start buying stocks.  You can see the "sea of green" on the right, and this shows overall acceleration.  This loosely correlates with IBD's "confirmation day" or "follow-through day".

Compare the ideal picture to where we are now -- less than ideal.  I did not buy any positions on Tuesday.

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Strategy

A note came in overnight asking why I buy strength -- "... there is better value in buying quality on the dips".

This may be true, but timing is important.  

My experience is contrary to the questioning statement -- buying a stock that is moving higher has historically worked better for me compared to purchasing a stock that is "undervalued".  When you buy a stock that is moving higher in price the market is recognizing that the stock is worth more than it was in recent history.  It is in demand (especially if volume is higher).  The "Darvas Box" concept buys these types of breakouts, and although I do not follow this methodology, the "buy strength" concepts that are used in the approach are proven.

So, you'll see me buy stocks that are at least 1.001 x (previous-day's-high) as my entry.

I've placed a number of day orders for strong dividend stocks in both the Collective2 Greenfield Dividends portfolio as well as my personal portfolio.  Futures are weaker as I write so I am not overly optimistic that these orders will fill today.  If we have a strong day those positions may fill, bringing my invested level upwards.  Here's the group performance of the list:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top plot shows the group performance (blue) relative to the SP500.

Subscribers to my Dropbox can get the list of Dividend stock candidates for today by looking for the file that is called "16JUL05-DividendOrderListFor16JUL06.txt"

The sequence to select stocks goes something like this:
  1. I start by looking at my holdings and those stocks that are signalling "Buy" and that are in an uptrend on multiple periods are added first.
  2. I look at the most recent (internally generated) scan for new "Buy" candidates that pay dividends.  These must meet my "Greenfield" criteria, which I've described numerous times elsewhere in this blog and my newsletters.
  3. I look at the "Dividend Champions" list from David Fish (Google it).  These stocks meet a unique set of criteria, and they only fail one step of my Greenfield criteria (specifically that they have not moved more than 50% in the past year).  David's list of dividend stocks is a stellar list and if you invest in dividend-paying stocks you have to use his list as a starting point.
Again, all my holdings are quality stocks that have shown a great resiliency to this market, so I'm not overly concerned about the exposure.  As a comparison, the markets were down about a percent on July 5th but the C2 portfolio rose slightly, as did my personal holdings (which more/less mirror the C2 portfolio).

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here (if I have listed any) are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Post Olympic Trials, Life Returns to Normal, Close to an Entry Signal

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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Personal note:  Life is slowly returning to normal.  My older son successfully competed at Olympic Team Trials and although he did not qualify, the experience for both him and our family was amazing.  The athletes we send to the Olympics are truly amazing, and I think our son has a great shot at qualifying for the team in Tokyo in 2020.  Of all the pictures that I took, this one is the most special:



Click on the image to enlarge.

This picture was captured at the start of the 3m Springboard Olympic Team Trials competition on 6/20. Greg is standing on the base of the 3m diving board. There are probably 300-400 people in the stands, and they are all waiting for the start of the event. He is first up in the competition - no other divers have dove -- and is standing there with his eyes closed. I've not asked him what he was thinking and I will not -- although very public, this is his private time. I can only imagine what is going through his mind.

Read more here.  
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Market Overview

Long-Term Timer:  Long
Intermediate-Term Timer:  Cash
Short-Term Timer:  Cash

Despite the run-up last week from oversold levels due to Brexit, we are still relatively early and bearish in the overall market tone.  The following table provides a historical view of a recommended cash vs. fully-invested level as a function of market performance:



As you can see, we are at 67% in cash right now, and have been there for about a month.  The fact that the long-term timer is still showing "Long" is a positive sign, but even the internals for that signal are quite weak.  If we do not get a major turn this week I could see all of the indicators hitting the lower bound and telling us that extreme caution is advised.

Whether you pick 33% invested or 50% invested is up to you.  What matters most is the next chart:

Long-Cash Ratio

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table is near a buy signal:


Click on the image to enlarge.

On the left side of the table, in the "slopes of LCR EMAs" portion, you can see that the 2d, 3d, and 5d slopes are positive (pointing upward) but the 8d is still negative (but less negative day-over-day).  As many of you know, when the 8d transitions to green/positive I attempt to move long in the markets using quality stocks.  We may see that today.

On the right side of the table you can see that we have had solid acceleration (slope of the slope is acceleration) to the upside, as indicated by the green.  Friday saw a weak pullback in terms of acceleration on the shortest of time frames -- this is due largely to the weekend holiday.  Continued green on the right will be good to see expansion (more green) on the left.

Cumulative Tick

The CT is also indicating positive behavior, but also shows Friday's weakness:



Click on the image to enlarge.

I have covered this chart numerous times in previous blog entries -- suffice to say that Tu-We-Th saw extremely good buying action, and Friday was more/less neutral, as expected.

Percent Longs

Another valuable indicator of mine is the number of stocks that are "long"-rated that are in my database:


Click on the image to enlarge.

As you can see, we are in the "green" area, which means (historically) that on a longer-termed basis we tend to move up from here rather than down.  Yes, we certainly may move down but on average, history favors more stocks appreciating in terms of price and doing so with increased volume.  The move from the local low (below the solid green line) indicates a reversal from oversold levels and is normal.

The take-away for you is that buying stocks when in the "green" area has historically worked out over a longer-period, e.g., 3-6 weeks or so (somewhat follows the Intermediate Timer signal but they are not related).

Buy Candidates

Subscribers to my Dropbox folder have access to the various leader lists that I develop. Instructions on how to subscribe are below.

Two very important lists, which are my primary buying lists, are shown in the following charts:



Click on the image to enlarge.

The stocks that comprise the Dividend Leaders list are, well, dividend payers that are leading stocks.  As you can see on the far left, my GGT system has the top 4 with new entry signals and the rest are recommended as a "hold".  All are performing extremely well in terms of price action, revenue growth, and EPS growth.  As dividend payers these are some of the best performers in terms of capital appreciation that you will find in the market today.

The other list is a non-dividend payer leader list:



Click on the image to enlarge.

The stocks in this list also follow the same behavior as the previous list, but these do not pay a dividend.  Again, note that there are several that are recommended as "buy", so more on that below.

Note that the recent performance of this list of stocks is stellar:



Click on the image to enlarge.

Note that in the figure the top blue line is relative performance to the $SPX over the past 30 days, which is shown in the top pane as the light green line.

The stocks are all holding the 21d EMA (green line in the 2nd pane Price Window), even in the recent downtrend, so they are literally "leaders".  I do not screen on this criteria -- it simply is a characteristic of a leader.  Of course they all hold the 50d MA (yellow), and I don't even know why I plot the 200 (red), as nothing ever hits that level.

Both of these lists are in a full uptrend on a monthly, weekly, and daily horizon, again measured using a set of proprietary indicators that I've developed.  I believe that these stocks are some of the best performers in terms of price, revenue growth, and earnings growth that you can find.

Of course, actual mileage for you may be different, so do your own diligence.  I simply am providing the lists that are on my TradeStation Radar and will alert me if they take off.

Strategy

1) I only buy stocks that are moving higher in price.  Very little exception here.
2) I only buy stocks that are indicated as a "Buy" using the GGT_Rec_rx.x.x indicator shown in the tables above.  This means I do not buy "hold", or heaven forbid, "sell" or "avoid" recommended stocks.  Very little exception here, except for the next criteria:
3) Stocks that are moving higher in price AND in volume get my attention and I'll buy a 25% position in those stocks.  The earlier this occurs in the day, but after 9:45 a/ET or so, the better.

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Greenfield Dividends Portfolio @ Collective 2

You can subscribe to my daily trades at Collective2:

https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986

Luckily, past performance isn't indicative of future performance and June was up 2.1%.  I've stabilized the strategy for this portfolio and have a full trading plan, which is available to subscribers.  Earlier months have underperformed the market due to a number of reasons but simply stated, a combination of being under-invested as well as being invested in high-beta stocks caused portfolio volatility.  As current subscribers know, the mechanics of the portfolio have changed dramatically from January, which was a terrible month and is keeping me underwater for the year.  While your crystal ball is as good as mine going forward, this is a real portfolio that I have real money in (about $40K), so I feel the same pain as well as joy as you do.  Performance numbers do not include dividend payments.

This portfolio will strive to maintain a 65% (or higher) level of equity.  It will re-purchase positions on a day-over-day basis, so entry levels are typically 20% or 25% of a full position.  Having 4-5 purchases of the same stock is not uncommon.  Buying and selling is conducted as described in my newsletter and other blog entries here.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here (if I have listed any) are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd