Tuesday, May 31, 2016

May 28th Weekend Review

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My latest newsletter is at this link:  https://goo.gl/i2kXXf 

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Outlook: new up trend, weak volume
Short-term:  Bullish
Intermediate-term:  Bullish
Long-term:  Bullish

Overall:  we are in an uptrend, although I would not be surprised at a slight pullback and dip.
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LCR Table

Click on the image to enlarge.

Friday marks the 3rd day of a new uptrend.  If you look at the image above, and look at previous blogs where I have provided "the ideal setup", you see that the positive movement of the 8d slope (it has a heavy dark set of lines around it on the table above) has been green for the past 3 days.

We are in good shape for remaining "long" as long as the green keeps increasing on the middle/left side of the table.

Cumulative Tick

Click on the image to enlarge.

Thursday and Friday saw weak but continued buying on the NYSE.  I've covered the plot above extensively in this blog and my newsletters -- suffice to say everything here is bullish.

Strategy

I'm presently holding the following across 3 TradeStation accounts:


All stock positions are above their 21d EMA so are "safe" for Monday's action.

I may Buy-to-Close (BTC) the INTU PUT if my Open P/L goes above 80%, just to capture the premium.  In general this applies to any of the PUT positions, since we are more than two weeks out from expiration.

As far as new purchases are concerned, I am looking to enter new positions in stocks with both volume and price breakout action.  I have linked automated alerts to my Twitter account -- grems8544 -- and if you notify your phone or email on my tweet you'll see the alert roughly at the same time I do.  Use this as a proxy for my cell phone/email notification service which is presently filled.  Here's what it looks like for a Price-Volume Break Out:

This was the alert sent out just before the close on Friday.  Here is how to break this down:

  • UBSH -- the symbol of the equity of interest
  • !BO -- the alert strategy name, in this case, Price-Volume BreakOut
  • 27.32 >= PrevHi 27.08 -- I require that today's price be greater than the previous close.
  • 0.14MM shares -- the stock is projected to trade at least 140,000 shares.  If this occurs late in the day, then there is a great chance of it being true.  If it occurs early in the morning, it needs to be watched.  This uses a complex algorithm to project the day's volume based on the early volume action. 
  • / 106% is the amount of projected volume above the highest volume level, of the previous 10 down days (not previous 10 days, they have to be DOWN days).  We want buying volume to be larger than the greatest short-term selling volume.
  • 5/27/2016 4:00:08 PM -- the signal occurred at the close (rare, but it does happen -- obviously).
My typical approach is to enter a smaller, say 10 or 20% position when the signal fires, and if the stock gains and looks constructive on a chart, then I add to it.

As far as selling, this rule uses the 2x21d close as well as GGT "Sell" (aka "Cash") methods.

This next display shows the leaders from last week who fired alerts, just so you can see history:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The days are most recent (left) to oldest (right).  If you choose to backtest this method, use an entry price that is 1.001 x the previous day's high for entry, which would have been the alert price.  If a "1" appears then the volume was larger than any previous 10 down-day volumes.

I will also be buying from a different strategy, and may/may not alert you to all my purchases.  Some of this is manual, some of it automatic.  I have no issues with you seeing my automated trades and alerts.


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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Regards,




Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Significant Up Day - May 24th Close

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Outlook: short-term improving, prone to failure

Short-term:  Continued "up" progress.  Completed Day 3, depending on how you count.
Intermediate-term:  New Up Trend
Long-term:  Uptrend intact but not accelerating upward

The weekly trends are down OR MIXED up/down in all the major indices.  The NAS and Russell 2000 *just* went to mixed mode.

The daily trends are all newly up.

When the longer-termed trends are opposing (or at least not fully confirming) the daily trends, being fully invested in the markets simply is risky.  New entries are prone to failure.

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Newsletter sent out to subscribers.  The latest version is at this link:  https://goo.gl/i2kXXf 

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

I discuss this table in detail in my latest newsletter.

Click on the image to enlarge.

From left to right, this is what I see:
  1. The LCR has moved +22% upwards on a day-over-day comparison.  This is the 195th strongest up day in almost 2000 observations, placing it in the upper 10% of all up days.  Given where it occurs (after a significant down period), I'm paying attention to the long side of the market.
  2. The 2d, 3d, and 5d slopes are positive and pointing upwards.  The 8d almost made it -- and as many of you are aware, this is my trigger for broad entry into the markets.  I saw this coming with the number of alerts that were sent out yesterday and started acquiring positions throughout the day.
  3. On the right, we have had 3 solid days of upward acceleration.  The right side looks really good.
Although we certainly can fail from here, I am buying positions from my Leaders list.  My dividend portfolio is getting leading stocks that pay a dividend.

Strategy

I intend to deploy capital.  I sold a few puts yesterday, as well as entering a few stock positions:


The stocks that I sold puts fired price/volume alerts so I expect that they will move up, away from my strikes.

I provide a completely updated list of Leaders in the daily GGT stock file, which is in the shared Dropbox folder.  Instructions to join (it is free) are in the newsletter as well as at the end of this entry.

The following Leaders fired price and volume alerts during the trading day on Tuesday:

FIZZ
ORBK

The following Greenfield stocks, which also includes those that pay a dividend and are part of my dividend portfolio, also fired price and volume alerts.

CEVA
CHKP
CTXS
EBSB
MKTX
PPBI
PRI
REXR
SPGI
VEEV
WAL

Not all pay a dividend so do your own diligence please.

Group behavior of my Greenfield Leaders list is noteworthy and continues to outperform the S&P500:

Click on the image to enlarge.

From top to bottom, this is what you are looking at:
  1. The top pane shows the S&P 500 (green) and the group behavior of the Leaders list (blue).  The S&P 500 has fallen about -2% or so over the past month; the Leaders list, in hindsight, as grown a large amount.
  2. The middle pane shows the daily price series of the Leaders list.  The green line is the 21d EMA, the yellow line the 50d EMA, and the red line the 200d EMA.
  3. The bottom pane shows volume and the 50d MA on volume.
As Mark Minervini says "If you want alpha in your portfolio, then you had best buy alpha."  I believe that my Leaders list represents alpha.

I will continue to add to my portfolios today using price and projected volume alerts.

I note that we are at a critical failure point -- we are early in a newly emerging trend.  The stocks I am invested in and am considering could easily move against me, so it is important that I review my holdings and potential new purchases every evening.  You should consider doing the same thing -- turning points can be dangerous to our portfolios.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Continued Long-Side Progress - May 23 Close

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Outlook: short-term improving, prone to failure

Short-term:  bottoming characteristics are visible
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

The weekly trends are down in all the major indices.

The daily trends are mixed.

When the longer-termed trends are opposing the daily trends, being fully invested in the markets simply is risky.  New entries are prone to failure.

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Cumulative Tick

Buying continued on the NYSE on Monday:

Click on the image to enlarge.

We are back above the solid red line, indicating that buying has dominated the past couple of days.  Taken in isolation, with more 52-week highs (green) than 52-week lows (red, top trace), we should be considering the long side of the market.

Long-Cash Ratio Table

The LCR Table continues to improve and we are closer to an entry signal:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The left/middle shows that the slope of the shortest measured period is positive.  This is a move in the right direction.

The right side shows that we have had two full days of the market slowing the descent -- this too is indicative of bottoming action.

While it is too early to call a short-term bottom, the current behavior is good and opens the door to enter positions on strength.

To recap the "ideal" setup, I am looking for the following LCR Table presentation:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Note that the 8d slope, on the left, is just transitioning positive (the move from red to green).  Historically, this has been a good entry signal, especially with the right side all green (acceleration to the upside).  We are not there yet, but it would be prudent to get shopping lists ready.

Strategy

Given that we are prone to failure at turning points, I'm launching a few trial balloons with tight stops.  I will require that these positions move higher on projected volume before I enter.

These are Greenfield Leader stocks.

All of these stocks are in a weekly uptrend and are in some form of "GGT Long" status:

TLK
WBMD
ORBK
GLOB
FIZZ
MITK
TTS
ENZ
FIVN
PLPM
TRUP

My entry points are as described in my newsletter.  Not only must the stock take out the entry buy-stop, but it must do it on projected volume.  This volume-price requirement will significantly reduce risk.

My end-of-day stops are as follows:

*TLK will be in trouble below 54.55
*WBMD has a stop of 63.30
*ORBK 25.17
*GLOB 36.49
*FIZZ 51.13
*MITK 8.57
*TTS 17.39
ENZ 6.10
FIVN 9.40
PLPM 4.12
TRUP  14.53

* indicates stocks with extremely favorable Effective Volume characteristics.

As always, none of these stocks should be considered recommendations to buy.  I am presenting my work for your continued research and diligence.

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Newsletter

I have finished the most recent copy of the newsletter and will send out today (Tuesday).  I simply need to proofread.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition (early May) is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Monday, May 23, 2016

The Earliest of Early Signals to Enter Long

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Outlook: short-term improving

Short-term:  bottoming characteristics are visible
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

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Cumulative Tick

Click on the image to enlarge.

Previous blog entries, as well as my latest newsletter(s), discuss the Cumulative Tick presentation.  Here is our current state:

1) the number of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows are more/less equal.  This is to be expected as we move south, and although Friday was a "strong(er)" day, we are at the bottom of the range so I would expect that these two metrics would be at parity.  This indicator needs to improve with the number of 52-week new highs (green) significantly outpacing 52-week new lows (red).

2) The markets started buying right out of the starting blocks on Friday and sustained buying all day.  The rate was constant and cumulative.  This is a good sign (middle plot)

3) The instantaneous cumulative tick (white) has pulled above all moving averages and is above the slowest one (solid red line).  This is significant and the indicator has been tuned over years of use.  When we cross the red line from below we have met a significant criteria -- now we need the markets to follow through and maintain the upward trajectory.  If we continue to meander horizontally it will not be good for buying stocks; we need continued strength.

I will post a Cumulative Tick update via Investfeed or Twitter if I see something significant.  For now, note that we have the short-term makings of a recovery, but of course, your crystal ball is as good as mine.  We are very, very early in this, and I expect the short-term recovery will fail again before it advances.

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

Click on the image to enlarge.

Long-term readers will take a glance at the table and know we are not in a buying position for Monday, May 23rd.

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) is constructed by individually ranking over 3000 stocks in terms of historical outperformance and assigning a "long" or "cash" moniker to each.  Take the ratio of the two values (long divided by cash), apply moving averages, and look at the slope of the moving averages and you get a sense of how the table functions.  The left/center shows slope; the right/center shows "slope of the slope", or rate of change.

The far right shows a new indicator for publication -- simply a composite to get an idea of price trend, slope trend, and overall table trend.

  • The far LEFT shows the raw LCR.  It moved up +5% from Thursday's value and is now at 0.629.  For every 1000 stocks in the database, only 629 are long.  This is a snapshot in time and does not tell us which direction we are going, but it does help us understand where we are.
  • The left/middle is the slope area, and it is a sea of red.  All the slopes are pointing downward, which is indicative of falling stock prices across the board.  I do not advocate buying stocks when I see this type of presentation, except for Leaders.
  • The right/middle is the slope-of-the-slope area, and Friday was an up day, relative to Thursday.  This is the first step of a bottom being formed, and seeing it across all measured time frames is good.  We need more of this in order to turn the LEFT side of the table green.
The new presentation on the far right simply shows that we have positive movement in price trend AND some improvement in slope and the overall table.  We are not out of the woods yet.  I have highlighted recent periods in the past where this same presentation has failed ( "F" ), so beware.  

I believe that entering stocks right now, except for leading stocks, would be a mistake, at least on a short-term basis.  If your holding period is longer then I do believe it is time to get shopping lists ready.

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Percent Longs

Click on the image to enlarge.

This table is another view of the LCR, but shows the percentage of stocks that are "long" rated.  On the far right we are "in the green", so we are in a historically favorable area for buying, as far as statistics are concerned.  The number of observations is nearly 2000 so the indicator is significant.

Note that we are on the LEFT side of entering the green zone -- we need to make a turn and play around in this area before we get a rapid and sustained movement to the upside.  We are early and this is why I do not advocate buying stocks right now.  Nevertheless, we typically move higher once the turn starts, so I watch this indicator closely.

----> In the end, of the three figures, the LCR Table is the most powerful predictor for knowing when to enter the markets.


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All this being stated, there are stocks that I am watching for possible continued movement to the upside, independent of the broader market.  Remember, leaders LEAD:

ORBK
PLPM
WBMD

AOS
BR
OC
EBS
FRC
SYK

BSBR
CORE
FIVN
TRUP
PRMW

GPN
ISRG
SYK
CBSH
ORI

Here is the group performance, relative to the S&P500:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The upward-pointing blue line shows that this batch of stocks is worthy of further consideration in this market.  Whether they continue their upward march is anybody's guess -- it is important to have stop criteria in place if you invest counter-trend.

As always, none of these stocks should be considered recommendations to buy.  I am presenting my work for your continued research and diligence.

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Newsletter:

I intend to finish the most recent edition later today (Monday) and will email to registered subscribers.

I will be going into some depth on what makes a "Leader" and how I select them.  You'll probably want to register for the letter -- just sayin'.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Friday, May 20, 2016

Ignore the Bounce and Start a 3-day Weekend

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Outlook: (unchanged from Thursday)

Short-term:  markets are in a downtrend
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

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Cumulative Tick


Click on the image to enlarge

1) New 52-week lows DOMINATED new 52-week highs --> Do not buy stocks in this climate.
2) The overarching theme on the Cumulative Tick chart is that more stocks are being sold over a 1 day, 2 day, and into a 3 day period.  Until we see the white line above the red line, I'm on the sidelines for my intermediate and long-term stock selections.

Starting my 3-day weekend early.


Stocks that go out through my text alerting service are all Greenfield stocks but I do not advocate any purchases on an extended basis.  We have not established a floor.

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Newsletter:

I intend to finish the most recent edition this weekend and will email to registered subscribers.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj

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Twitter:

I've become more active on Twitter.  Find me at grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Pay Attention to the Leaders

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Outlook:

Short-term:  markets are in a downtrend
Intermediate-term:  downtrend
Long-term:  Uptrend, but weakening

Long-Cash Ratio:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The very left shows a falling LCR:  more stocks are eroding in price than are gaining.  This is the "falling knife".

The middle/left shows a sea of red.  Every moving average, each with a unique measurement timeframe, is pointing downward.  Do not buy stocks, on a day-over-day basis, when this is happening.

The right side shows some green but it is not across the board.  The falling moving averages (middle/left) are starting to "slow" in their rates of descent, which is a necessary step to identifying a turning point.  We are not there as of Wednesday's close, so Thursday is an easy day:  no stock buying.

Cumulative Tick:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top shows that the number of stocks making new 52-week highs (green) is nearly equivalent to those making new 52-week lows.  Not a good buying climate.

The middle trace shows the impact of the FOMC minutes -- coasting/flat for the majority of the day, then sustained selling by algorithms as the market digested the minutes.  Interesting to me that the market starting sustained BUYING at exactly 1:00 p/ET and then SELLING at exactly 2:00 p/ET.  I re-iterate that the period between 11 a/ET and 2-ish is a dangerous period to buy (or sell) stocks.

The bottom trace is the money shot.  The cumulative tick war has been lost on a short-term basis, and now with the real-time CT line (bold white) below the solid red line all moving averages will start sloping downward.   I do not buy stocks when this is the situation, and I strongly urge you to reconsider entry to stocks for ANY time frame when this is the case.  The risk/reward simply is not there.

Leader's List

The list is getting thinner due to the recent market turndown.

The following stocks continue to exhibit strength despite the market conditions:

NCS
PATK
PLPM
STS
TTS
WBMD

Under no circumstances am I advocating that these stocks be bought.  These are "teaching stocks" -- you need to understand why these are leaders.

Click on the image to enlarge.

Frequent readers of this blog will see a common display on the left -- my "Greenfield" display.  I've written extensively about this and my most recent newsletter has details of the fields (near the back of the newsletter).  Get a free copy here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj 

The right side is new for readers, not-so-much for me.  The far right shows a leader's list and WEEKLY trend performance. The "-1d()" columns contain data from Tuesday, and the "Today()" column contains data from Wednesday.  Two "-1d()/Today()" pairs exist because I use confirming methods to look at the individual trend of the stock.

On the far right, I've circled a "Down/Up" indicator transition.  One exists for PLPM and the other for WBMD.  These stocks are just confirming, within the last week, that they are in an up trend on a weekly perspective.

You can see that on the left many stocks are in a downtrend on a day-over-day basis -- this is indicated by the red "Down".  The natural conclusion is that if this continues for these stocks that the weekly trend will be under attack -- this is the correct conclusion so it is prudent to stay away from these specific stocks.  Despite this observation, some of the leading stocks are working within this market.

As an example of this, PLPM is showing "Up" on a daily evaluation -- it is holding up well in this market on both a daily and weekly basis.  Here is what it looks like in a familiar candlestick chart:

Click on the image to enlarge

The two plots on the left are WEEKLY; the two plots on the right are DAILY.  The top two plots use the same method to look at trend (Method 1), and the bottom two plots use the same method but different from the top (Method 2).

You can see in the upper left that PLPM is transitioning to "Up" on a weekly basis.  You can see on the upper right (daily basis) that it has been moving upward for the past 3 days, and my trend indicator shows that it picked up on the daily trend change 5 days ago.

The bottom two plots (Method 2) both show that the weekly and daily "Up" trends are intact.

Again, I must caution, this is not a recommendation to enter PLPM or any of these stocks.  The market is in a downtrend.  The purpose here is to show you that my leading stocks are doing well in this climate and when I say "Leading" you have a good idea of what this means.

For those of you with itchy fingers, take a really close look at PATK.  The following multi-period quad chart is provided without commentary, for your review and learning:

Click on the image to enlarge

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Newsletter:

I received a couple of notes from folks asking when my next newsletter is going to be distributed.  Soon.  I intend to finish the most recent edition this weekend and will email to registered subscribers.  A combination of work, home-life, and focusing on streamlining/communicating market trends has prevented me from completing the most recent edition.

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

As stated above, the most recent edition is here:  goo.gl/e75Ayj 

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Twitter:

I've become more active on Twitter.  Find me at grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Saturday, May 14, 2016

Cumulative Tick Signals Bearish Move - Friday May 13 Close

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The Cumulative Tick indicator has made a short-term transition which indicates that I should not be buying stocks, at least in the short-term:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top trace shows the day-over-day behavior of 52-week New Highs (green) compared to 52-week New Lows (red).  Although red is below green, the difference (yellow) is quite low.  When this is the case stocks, as far as the NYSE is concerned, are dropping in prices and the sidelines/cash is a great position.

The middle trace shows algorithmic buying/selling.  When the trace moves upward we have buying, and when it is dropping we have selling.  It resets every day.  Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all saw significant drops in buying and a dominance in selling.  The bears clearly won the week.

The bottom trace is the cumulative tick (white) and various moving averages.  The longest moving average is the solid red line.  This has been "tuned" over the years and represents a good level to become cautious if the white line crosses from above.  Friday was the day, and hence, caution is advised on HOLDING positions, and certainly, I am not buying anything  (I may sell a few puts on contra ETFs though).

When the white trace is trading above the solid red trace, and the red trace is in an uptrend (pointing lower left to upper right), we are in an intermediate-termed uptrend.  When the white trace crosses from above the red trace will first move horizontal (like now), and if the white trace remains below the solid red trace, we will start to see more selling in the markets.

White-below-red is a short-term indicator but for Monday, it is very important to look at existing positions and unload any that are below entry points.  Lightening positions too would not be unwise.

It is quite possible that this is all a head-fake and that we will resume an orderly march upward in the broader markets.  If that is the case I will post something here -- I have an indicator that gives me a good view of when this starts to happen.

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As many of you know, this indicator is built on my Long-Cash Ratio.  Here is the table:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Next to the dates on the left side of the LCR table is a green (and now red) column of the raw Long-Cash Ratios.  Every stock in my GGT database has an assignment:  Long (okay to hold) or Cash (not okay to hold).  When I take the fraction Long/Cash I get the LCR value, which is presently 0.83, meaning that for every 830 stocks that are rated "Long", 1000 are rated "Cash".   More importantly, the number is falling, which means the number of stocks with a "cash" rating is growing on a day-over-day basis.

The left side of the table is a sea of red.  These are moving averages on multiple time frames, and what is important is that we see red, and have been seeing red for some time.  When this is the case a strong argument can be made that buying stocks is just plain stupid, unless you are an exceptional stock picker.  

The left side is telling me that "cash" is a position and it is a good one right now.

The right side is a bit more complicated -- it tells us how fast the LEFT side is changing, again on multiple time frames.  What I see on the right is somewhat of a mixed picture, but clearly, the emergence of the red on the RIGHT, in combination with the red on the LEFT, tells me that "the knife is falling and only fools try to catch it".

All this being said, when should we be looking to get back into buying positions?  The best time, at least from the perspective of my system, is when the LCR Table gives us the following presentation:

Click on the image to enlarge.

This shows the RIGHT side as a sea of green, and the LEFT side starting to transition from RED to GREEN.  We're not there.  Patience.  It always happens.  We simply need to wait for the setup.

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Strategy for Monday

Here are my non-option holdings:



All are holding up well in this climate.  All are at least 2.4% above the 21d EMA, and two closes below the 21d EMA would trigger an exit point for me.

I do not intend to purchase any new stocks that are considered GGT "long", despite the rating.

I have my "shopping lists" ready.  My Greenfield Leader's list has solid performers, but some of these are now under the 21d EMA so they are not entry candidates.  Stocks that continue to hold up well in this environment with the "best" fundamentals and relative strength are:

CENT
AMZN
STS
PATK
ERI
TLK
FB
COR
CORE
WBMD
HMSY
ORBK
SFBS
SIMO
ULTA

All this being said, there are a couple of notable stocks on this list:

COR:  This stock is attracting "quiet" money right now.  A close above 78,36 would be bullish and would trigger a stop loss level of 76.28 or so.  Certainly, a close above 79.42 would be extremely bullish, especially in this market climate.  Volatility is dropping but volume is moving upward, so keep an eye on this one.

SFBS:  Same as COR, more or less.  A close above 50.43 would trigger a stop loss level of 48.54.  A close above 51 would be extremely bullish.  Volatility is dropping while price tightens but volume remaining constant -- a tell-tale sign of accumulation.

More risky plays here are SIMO, FB, EFX, and FIZZ, but all show strong Large Effective Volume.

Again though, I do not intend to purchase any stocks on Monday.  Do your own diligence.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Short-term presentation is improving - as of close on May 10

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As expected, Tuesday's LCR table is showing that we may be hitting a local low and are due for a rise:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The left column shows the LCR, and if you look closely, it rose +5%.  Not a huge amount, but a positive change in a sea of red.

The left side of the table shows that on a day-over-day basis we are still dropping in terms of the number of stocks that are outperforming their historical, optimized averages.  N = 3054 so the number of measurements is significant.  The left side of the table indicates that I should be cautious.

The right side of the table shows one day of "green", e.g., the day-over-day change of the left side of the table is positive.  The right side says "get your shopping lists ready".  The left side says "we are too early to enter en masse".

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The NYSE Cumulative Tick chart is also short- and medium-term bullish:


Click on the image to enlarge.

I've covered this and the LCR table to a large extent in my newsletters, so please take the time to read those.  Here's the latest:   goo.gl/e75Ayj

There is nothing bearish about the CT chart, at least as of the close of markets on Tuesday.  These are all short-term bullish patterns.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Three dividend stocks that are worthy of  consideration here are

CLX
DPS
EXR

All are pushing new 52-week highs.  All have decreasing volatility.  All have signs of big-boy institutional buying, even at these levels.  

I like CLX above 132.99 with an initial stop loss of two closes below 127.81.
I like DPS above 95.88 with an initial stop loss of 93.24
I like EXR above 94.13 with an initial stop loss of 91.10

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On the Leaders front, high on my radar are:

BANC
FB
UFPI

BANC is holding the 21d EMA very tightly.  A gap fill back to 19.87 and a subsequent breakout above 19.87 would be bullish.  This stock appears to be being accumulated by institutions.  Surprisingly, there is little overhead resistance above 20.00, and a close above 20 would likely turn it into support and then we could see a major move upwards.  There is some supply resistance at 20.64 and the new 52-week high is 20.85, adding a bit more of supply resistance.  Nevertheless, worth of watching.

FB continues to perform well, but volume is extremely low since the gap up on 4/28.  After dipping below the 21d EMA yesterday, it recovered nicely and finished strong.  Huge-huge-huge support at 117.51, so a natural stop loss could exist there.  A close below 116.57 would make me re-evaluate my long position -- for now I intend to hold and possibly add if it breaks out from here.  This is a new "bowtie" breakout of the 8d, 21d, and 34d EMAs.  A close above 120.79 on volume would be a huge signal to enter.

UFPI may allow an entry above 84.16, and if this occurs, two good support points are 83.90 and 82.60 (with additional support at the 50d MA at 82.17).  Pick your poison - well defined stop losses.  If UFPI can close above 87.34 there is virtually no overhead supply resistance so this could take off.  The stock appears to be accumulated using Effective Volume tools.  This is a new "bowtie" breakout of the 8d, 21d, and 34d EMAs.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm on the sidelines for the most part.  I still continue to hold COR, CTWS, EFX, FB, FIVN, FIZZ, and a position in VXX, as well as a few puts in EBIX, IPHI, and VXX.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

A few leading stocks are noteworthy; mostly on the sidelines

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Futures are up as I write so we may see a bounce today.  My time frames are a bit longer than a single day so I am not overly influenced one way or another with simple day-to-day action.

One of the biggest challenges I see is that the broader ETFs are rolling over into "cash" as tracked by GGT:

Click on the image to enlarge.

These signals are more/less on an intermediate time frame, e.g., 3-6 weeks in length, so when I see a transition I pay attention.  At a macro level market sentiment is shifting one way or another.

Because these are not all transitioning en masse I am not completely bearish on the markets, so I intend to continue to hold my winning positions.

~~~~~~~~~~

The cumulative tick chart is (at least for now) resuming it's upward march.  Note that this is a short-term chart:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Top trace:  more 52-week new highs than low, so we are still uptrending in the market.

Middle trace:  we fought back yesterday to more/less our starting point.  Not exciting one way or another -- buyers had the upper hand, but not convincingly, for most of the day.

Bottom trace:  solid red line is still trending upward, so we are in an advancing market.  White trace is starting to diverge away from the solid red line, which is good and supportive of expanding markets.

Conclusion:  okay to enter strong stocks with clear exit points established.  Do not over commit but this could be a good entry area for positions.  Overall, we are still in the woods and risk is quite high.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The LCR Table paints a very cautionary view of entry into the markets:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Of significance is that the Long-Cash Ratio, which measures the number of stocks that are outperforming their 52-week optimized uptrends relative to those that are underperforming, continues to indicate that we're moving DOWN, e.g., more stocks are moving to the dark side.  Put another way, the tide is flowing out.

It is more difficult to pick winning stocks when the tide is flowing out.  A rising tide lifts all boats and all of that ...

Taken in isolation, the LCR table says DO NOT ENTER stocks at this time.  The left side is red.  The right side is mixed.  The right side is generally very sensitive, so the fact that the right side is red is a big warning flag.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My "GGT Longs" Leaders List is still performing well in this market

AXGN
BANC
COR
DWA
EBIX
ERI
FB
FIZZ
LGND
PLPM
SCLN
ULTA
WBMD

Click on the image to enlarge.

Top trace:  Group performance relative to S&P 500.

Middle:  Group price performance

Bottom:  Group volume performance.

Note that I'm seeing constructive behavior in the following stocks:

LGND
FB
FIZZ
EBIX

For LGND, a close below 114.53 would be bearish.  Continued strength could be worthy of entry.

For FB, a close below 116.57 would be bearish.  This is a powerful stock.  Disclosure:  I own FB.

For FIZZ, a close below 47.91 would show a failed breakout.  I entered this stock this past Friday, and I told all of you about it last week!

For EBIX, two closes below 46.47 (the 21d EMA) would be bearish.

For all of these, I would only enter on strength:

LGND: above 123.07
FB: above 120.40
FIZZ:  above 52.31
EBIX:  above 49.37

Try to combine with volume too, as price alone is not necessarily sufficient in this market.

These entry values adjust daily.  I cover the methodology in my newsletters; the last published newsletter is here:   goo.gl/e75Ayj

I'm on the sidelines for the most part.  I still continue to hold COR, CTWS, EFX, FB, FIVN, FIZZ, and a position in VXX, as well as a few puts in EBIX, IPHI, and VXX.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Friday, May 6, 2016

Strategy and Maintaining My Shopping List

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Leaders are holding up well despite the pullback.  Here's the updated list:

COR
DWA
EBIX
FB
FIZZ
HTHT
LGND
LMAT
LYTS
PAM
POST
SCLN
SFBS
SIMO
SPKE
STS
TLK
UFPI
ULTA
WBMD

The following stocks are still part of the list but are updating at TradeStation, so I don't know (as of this writing), whether they pass the Greenfield criteria:

AEIS
BANC
CENT
ERI
FPRX
PLPM

I intend to avoid the following stocks due to pending earnings release:

EBIX reports on Monday.
SCLN reports on Tuesday
HTHT reports on Wednesday
PAM reports on Thursday

I also reject the following stocks for immediate entry because they already would trigger my exit criteria:

LGND, -2% below the 21d EMA
HTHT, -1.6% below the 21d EMA
TLK, -1.3% below the 21d EMA
WBMD, huge selloff/reversal on Thursday, and is now below the 21d EMA
SIMO, -0.4% below the 21d EMA

Here's the view of the list from my Greenfield Radar presentation:


Click on the image to enlarge.

Detailed field descriptors are provided elsewhere in this blog as well as in my most recent newsletter.

From a group relative strength perspective, they are outperforming the S&P500:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The upward movement of the upper plot, in the upper right corner tells you that the group is moving higher, relative to the S&P 500.  The group price plot is the lower bar presentation and you see that prices are holding steady (meaning that the S&P 500 is falling).

If these stocks are not on your radar then I have no idea what else would be considered "quality" stocks.  These are clearly the best of the best.

In yesterday's blog entry, I mentioned that FB, FIZZ, and BANC were quietly being accumulated, and I gave entry levels for each.  Both FIZZ and BANC fired triggers to enter, although the volume on each was lower than I like.  Give serious thought to the strength that these stocks are exhibiting.

My stop loss for BANC remains a close below $19.87, and for FIZZ, two closes below 45.55.  FB is a bit more tricky, but a close below 116.57 looks prudent as an exit flag.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stategy

All this being said, the broader market model is suggesting extreme caution.  To wit:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The LCR table, which I have discussed at length in my latest newsletters, is now fully "red" on the left.  Stocks are falling in price on all measured periods, and until we get some indication of the group hitting a bottom then movement en masse into the market is ill-advised.

My timer table is not saying to exit the markets completely, but certainly, it is recommending that I raise cash to at least 67% of my portfolio:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The short- and intermediate-termed timers are solidly in CASH, meaning we are short-term bearish, and the long-term timer still says we are okay for holding those stocks that we have gain.  No "full" sell signals until the table turns completely red, so we simply are not there yet.

The Cumulative Tick picture is still "long" but on the thinnest of margins:


Click on the image to enlarge.

Again, I cover this presentation in every newsletter so if you are not familiar, then download the latest and get yourself up to speed, as this is a primary indicator for me.

The top trace shows some improvement in the number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows, so this is good.

The middle trace shows a sustained, but short sell-off that happened mid-day and from which we really never recovered.

The bottom trace shows the real-time market, and simply put, the closeness of the white trace, which is the cumulative tick, and the solid red line, which is a moving average that has historically been a good "do not cross" level, is troubling.  This being stated, this is also the opportune time to consider buying stocks, PROVIDED THE LCR TABLE confirms.

It isn't, so I would not get trigger happy on releasing a bunch of long orders.  That's just me though -- do what you think is best.

This final presentation is not one that I post often because it relies on your understanding of the LCR, slope, and what all of that means:


Click on the image to enlarge.

If you are new to GGT or my methods, this will probably read like Greek to you.  Simply bear with me.

The chart above shows the slope of the 8d exponential moving average of the long-cash ratio (LCR).  You saw the LCR presentation above, and if you look at that table, you'll see a solid black box around the 8d slope column.  That data is the chart above.

In the chart above, I've circled the LAST TWO DAYS of the 8d EMA slope value.  They are nearly on top of each other.  They are also hitting local 2-year lows, meaning, we probably are not going much lower.  THIS means that we're due for a bounce, and it is THIS SPECIFIC BOUNCE that often presents a good buying opportunity.  Whether it will be a sustained bounce or dead-cat is unknown.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine.

I doubt today (Friday) will be the broader move up.  I do expect it in the short-term though, and as soon as the 8d ema moves above the horizontal black line we'll have another broad entry signal.  Until then, I intend to stick with the Leader's list only, and then only those stocks that are showing accumulation.

So, aside from watching (closely) FB, FIZZ, and BANC, I'm on the sidelines.  I still continue to hold COR, CTWS, EFX, FIVN, and a position in VIX, as well as a few puts in EBIX, IPHI, and VXX.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/e75Ayj

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Thursday, May 5, 2016

Leaders Rotating; LCR Table Shows Increasing Bearishness

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I've updated the Greenfield Leader's list to the following:

Recently reported:
BAK
PLPM
WBMD
SPKE
FIZZ
BANC
STS
FB
SIMO
COR
AEIS

Reporting today:
DWA
ERI
FPRX
POST

Reporting next week:
EBIX
SSNI
SCLN
HTHT

Reporting in a couple of weeks:
TUMI
ULTA

Notable deletions from my published list this past weekend are:
RUBI
BFR
OSUR
VLRS
PATK
ATSG
TLK
CKEC

***** I'm watching the following stocks for breakouts:

PLPM
WBMD
ULTA
SPKE
FIZZ
BANC
STS
FB
COR
AEIS

These next three are being quietly accumulated and the purchase is leaving large footprints:
FIZZ (above 48.01)
FB (natural stop loss at 116.82; a price/volume breakout above 119.57 would be a good signal)
BANC (natural stop loss at 19.87; a price/volume breakout above 20.64 would be good)

I will enter a 25% position in any of these today if they aggressively move upward.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From a broader market perspective, we are under significant pressure and conservative guidance is to raise cash to only be exposed 33% or so.  I am under that level so am looking intently at the Leader's list to add to positions.

The LCR Table, which I cover extensively in my newsletter, is quite bearish:


Click on the image to view a larger version.

There is nothing in this presentation that says "buy".

The cumulative tick chart is showing increasing issues with a growth of stocks hitting 52-week new LOWS.  This is a bearish indication:


Click on the image to view a larger version.

The CT chart is still short-term bullish, as the solid red line in the bottom plot is uptrending.  This being stated, the emergence of a larger number of 52-week new lows is new since late January / early February and needs to be watched.  If the red line in the upper plot continues to get closer to the green line, or heaven forbid, rises above the green line, then the market is correcting and we should move to the sidelines.  Additionally, if the solid white line moves below the red line then we will be in a short-term sidelines signal.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/e75Ayj

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.  

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Markets Up, but LCR Diverges Downward - May 2 Close

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The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/e75Ayj

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Although price is what we put in our bank accounts and we typically welcome a movement upward in price, Monday's action has "caution" written all over it.  Let us start with the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table:

Click on the image to view a larger image.

The LCR table is explained in my latest newsletter so download it at the link above to review.

Prices on the main indexes moved up yesterday, as did my GGT index.  Despite this, stocks continued to slip below their optimized moving averages, causing them to move from a "long" status to a "cash" status.  This is reflected in the LCR value that you see above, to the far left.  The LCR fell another -3% to land at a final value of 2.294.  This is a 3-day move down, and I don't care what the major indexes are doing.

The left side of the table shows continued downward movement of the moving averages applied to the LCR.  The 2d through the 34d are pointing downward, so on a short-term and intermediate-term perspective more stocks are moving to a "cash" status than not.  Recall that "cash" means that prices are falling below adaptive, optimized moving averages, and as a result, the stocks have triggered a signal to exit any long positions.

The right side shows just how weak the movement was yesterday.  This is a table of values that shows how much the left side has changed, and what is more telling, only the shorter time frames saw any positive change.  To have any confidence in a buying opportunity I need to see green on the right -- we are not there.

Takeaway:  Continue to unload those positions that are underwater.  Trail a stop -- details of how to accomplish this are fully explained in my newsletter.  No new buying.

Timer Table

The following shows the status of my timers:


The short of the table is that it is telling me to be cautious.  We are whipsawing back and forth on the intermediate timer, which means we are right at thresholds.  Correspondingly, I favor no more than 33% invested as a target right now.

Cumulative Tick

The CT presentation is longer-term bullish but is taking a whacking today:

Click on the image to open a larger version.

The top traces show that we continue to hit new 52-week highs, relative to hitting new 52-week lows (red).  This is longer-termed bullish.

The middle trace resets daily and shows me sustained, algorithmic buying.  We started the sell-off at the open this morning and it continues as I write.  Today is not a buying day.

The bottom trace shows the ongoing cumulative tick and basically, the solid, uptrending red line is positive for entry to stocks.  As long as the white line, which is the instantaneous CT, remains above the red it will stay pointing upward.  If the white line crosses the longer red moving average line from above it will start pointing downward and this is a signal to me to not purchase stocks.

Strategy

I am watching a number of stocks for possible entry:

DWA
EBIX
COR
PLPM
SCLN
FIZZ
BANC
FB
ERI
RUBI
ULTA
AXGN
SIMO
FPRX
WBMD
TUMI
POST
QIHU
CKEC

Note that many of these report earnings this week so I will wait to enter those if we do get an entry signal.  All of these stocks are GGT "long" rated, at least for now (grin).

An entry signal looks like the following excerpt from my LCR table:


When the 8d slope of my LCR table turns positive this *generally* has signaled a good time to enter.  Of course, stock selection matters too, and the list provided above changes daily.

I will post an entry signal when it occurs here, as well as a post to Twitter (grems8544) and to FB.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd