Monday, June 13, 2016

Short-Term Trend Fading - Protecting Profits

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Life has taken over and the newsletter is on the back burner.  My family and I are headed to Indianapolis near the end of this week to cheer my oldest son on at Olympic Trials, starting on the 20th, so there is little chance of it being updated before the end of the month.

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Market Overview

Short-term:  downtrend intact
Intermediate:  has already transitioned to cash signal; downtrend prevalent
Long:  uptrend intact


With the short- and intermediate-termed trends weakening this is not a good time to buy stocks en masse.  I intend to only buy those stocks that are breaking out on volume.

LCR Table

Underlying the weakness is a two-day sell-off in stocks:

Click on the table to enlarge.

This table has been discussed at length in previous blogs and in my newsletter so refer to past entries for details.  Suffice to say, the right side shows solid weakness, and this is starting to creep into the left side, which some of you will recognize as bad news on a short-term basis.

Whether we have a buying opportunity is anybody's guess.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine.

Astute followers of the blog will recognize that the left side is almost to a transition stage -- if Monday, June 13th is a down day AND stocks (internally) sell off in their rating (increase of "cash" rated stocks relative to "long" rated), then we will have a short-term confirmation of the downtrend.

Cumulative Tick

I'm watching the CT closely:

Click on the image to enlarge.

There was not much progress for the week, so Friday's selling action was significant.  The instantaneous CT (white) is just above the longest moving average (red), and if it crosses the red from above, we could have the start of a downtrend across all measured time frames.  This being stated, the end-of-month window dressing for funds and pending earnings season will most likely temper any major drop.

If the CT crosses red from above I will post via Twitter at Grems8544.

Holdings

Most of my holdings are doing well:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top plot area is a composite of my holdings (blue) and the S&P 500 ($SPX), as of the last 30 days.  The $SPX is up less than 2 % and the holdings list is around +7%.  My actual mileage is a bit less because a few stocks were unloaded over the past week.

The middle plot area shows daily prices as well as the 21d EMA, 50d MA, and the 200d MA.  All are in an uptrend and all are doing well.  No broad sell signals for my portfolio until I cannot maintain a level above the 21d EMA (in composite).

The area below the daily prices is slope of the 21d EMA, smoothed to a 4d level.  It is positive (good), and it has a value of 2.4-ish.  On a daily basis this is a 0.3% growth so the longer-term expectation is positive growth this this existing portfolio.

The bottom plot shows that volume is drying up with this recent downturn.  I'm not overly worried about the pullback, but it will be isolated to specific stocks.  For *my* portfolio, I still feel in good shape.

Leader's List Performance

Looking forward for the week, the  relative performance of the Leader's List is as follows:

Click on the list to enlarge.

Uptrends are intact.  For the symbol list of stocks that comprise the Leader's List, you must subscribe to my Dropbox folder.  Instructions below.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here (if I have listed any) are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd