Sunday, February 19, 2017

Putting the GGT *Files* on Ice, Effective Feb 21st

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Good evening all,

After considerable thought and going back-and-forth I have decided to put the GGT Stock files, as published to the Dropbox share folder that many of you have graciously downloaded, on hold for the foreseeable future.  The rationale has nothing to do with GGT -- I use the system with one of my accounts, but it has everything to do with the cost of the data service, which is up for renewal on the 24th of February.

Through a convoluted "how did I get here" process I use the database created by HGSI -- High Growth Stock Investor ( http://www.highgrowthstock.com/ ) as the data source for generating the nightly stock file updates.  I also use the same database with my EdgeRater software ( http://www.edgerater.com/ ).  The Metastock export function of HGSI generates the necessary files that I use for GGT, or Edgerater accesses the database directly.  Advantages to using HGSI over Yahoo are numerous:

  • Price Accuracy
  • Volume Accuracy
  • Data does not "move", e.g., it is not corrected later
The downside of HGSI/Metastock is that I'm looking at $700 for a renewal.  For a program as powerful as HGSI but one that I use a fraction of the power, this is a sunk cost that I feel is not easily recoverable.

So, if you want to use GGT methods you'll have to rely on my TradeStation ELD.  If you are not a TradeStation user I can't help you, as I've not written the software for any other trading platform.

Contact me directly if you want to continue to use GGT within TradeStation.  You'll need to maintain a Dropbox folder, as I publish coefficients to files that TradeStation will need to correctly calculate the buy/sell/hold recommendations.

Sorry for this, but I can do what I need to do within TradeStation and not have to rely on HGSI.  The file system will update with Friday's file (2/17) and I'll leave it there for a few weeks; then it will be cleaned out.

Thanks,

Paul

Friday, February 10, 2017

General Update as of Friday, February 10th, 2017

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General Update as of Friday, February 10th, 2017

I have another blog running with daily entries as I post, in real-time, my performance with my optimized Connors' strategies.  I simply do not have enough bandwidth to support this blog (Trading the Greek Gods) while I'm still getting that blog and process of data entry stabilized.  It's one thing to trade a strategy and record the transactions; it's another thing to make sure errors are minimized when the public is reviewing and following your strategy.

Posts here will be infrequent while my attention is on the other blog.

The Connors Forward Test blog page is https://fwdtest.blogspot.com/

You'll need to subscribe to that blog once you land on that page.  It is best if you subscribe from a computer browser rather than mobile browser, but both will work.

Thanks for your support!

Paul

Friday, January 27, 2017

I've been on Hiatus; Getting back in the Saddle

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Thanks all for the notes of interest on the blog, signals, and my lack of writing.

As many of you know, November/December/January have been very busy months for my family.  My older son recently competed in the Junior Diving World Championships in Kazan, Russia, and that took me there for a couple of weeks.  My wife's travel schedule in December, shortly after my return from Russia, further complicated available time, and then of course, the holidays were what they were.

I'm getting back into the swing of things and will be holding an online meeting on Saturday, January 28th, from 10:30 until (probably) around 1 pm ET.  

I will be discussing some of my findings of Connor's strategies, specifically from his work that he did in 2009 from "High Probability ETF Trading".  I have brought the strategies forward and have tested them, with extensive modifications to moving averages and thresholds, and will be presenting those findings.  While not earth-shattering, I'll present information on how to use 4 of the tested strategies in combination to obtain 5% - 19% annualized with better than 70% chance of the trade working for you.

I have set up a GoToMeeting link.  Here is the conference line:

https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/753850757

You can also dial in using your phone. 
United States: +1 (267) 507-0007 
Access Code: 753-850-757 

Tomorrow's meeting will start at 10:30 a.m. ET, to give a few folks in other time zones the ability to not have to roll out of bed too early.

The GoTo Meeting session will be limited to the first 25 people who log in, as that is the size of my account.

I will have a streaming connection running today (Friday) that you can check your hardware setup.  Click the link after 12:00 p.m. ET Friday and check that your computer is working.  I will display a TradeStation screen or something equivalent.  You should hear music in the background and you can say something if you want -- if I'm in the room I'll hear it.

See you Saturday.

Regards,

Paul



Monday, November 7, 2016

Not taking the bounce today (Monday, Nov 7)

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The news over the weekend has created a large jump upward in futures, indicating that we will rocket upwards today.

Perhaps.

I am nearly 100% in cash right now, and intend to stay there.  I do not intend to buy any CC's or NPs, even though we are at a possible turning point.

The following figure shows that we have some repair to go through before I will start buying:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top row of plots are daily 52-week new highs (green), 52-week new lows (red), and their net (yellow).  Any time red is over green is a bad sign for buying, as more stocks are hitting lows than highs.

I like to put my money to work in expanding markets, not contracting.

The middle row of plots are daily indications of algorithmic buying.  The number resets daily.  When the red line is above the blue line, more than 500 stocks per minute are ending on an up-tick, meaning that supply is getting more scarce, driving prices upward.  You see the converse above -- supply is becoming more plentiful, driving prices downward.  When we see the afternoons selling off and effectively moving negative, then more people (and algos) are unloading so that they do not have to carry their trades over night.  Now, there is obviously a buyer on the other side of these trades, but the presentation shows that the tick is DOWN after the trade, which means there were more bottom fishers waiting and prices were lower.

When I see the trace heading lower I simply refrain from buying en masse.

The bottom plot is the cumulative tick, and it is a running accumulator that stretches back to 2011 and it shows minute-over-minute net of buying and selling.  When the white trace, which is the real-time CT, is below all of the lines (like now), it means that not only is selling dominating, it is doing so consistently, day-over-day.  The solid red line that you see also shows a negative slope, and historically, this is my threshold.  If that line is pointing down I do not enter the markets on a broad scale.

While I have a few trial balloons waiting to enter the market in my Greenfield Dividends portfolio, for the most part I nearly 100% in cash.

If the presentation or my stance changes in a notable manner I will post an update here.

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Make sure you vote Tuesday if you have not.  As a veteran, we signed a pledge to give our lives so that you have that right.  The least you can do is take the time to exercise that right in accordance with your beliefs.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd



Sunday, October 30, 2016

Newsletter Posted - Research into Connors High Probability Trading Strategies

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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I have written a lengthy newsletter that is available for download:  http://goo.gl/4yscUA

This newsletter is focused on laying the foundation of analyzing the work of Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez, whom produced a guide in 2009 entitled "High Probability ETF Trading:  7 Professional Strategies to Improve Your ETF Trading".  This is part 1 of a multi-series.

Here is my summary from the newsletter:

This newsletter has focused on work conducted by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez of Connors Research, LLC.  The team has provided a number of high probability strategies that they claim are tradeable and that make money.  While this is true in some context, there are a number of omissions in their presentation:

  • There is no treatment of stop losses.
  • There is no treatment of profit targets.
  • There is no treatment of position sizing / money management.
  • There is no treatment of using all 7 strategies simultaneously, which obviously relies on having available cash when signals present themselves.
  • The impact of commissions.

Given these omissions, it is difficult to deploy their system “out of the book” without undertaking considerable risk.

To address this, EdgeRater and TradeStation offer tools that can be used to dig deeper and establish rules to help guide filling in the gaps that were omitted by Connors/Alvarez.  Whether any of the strategies are able to be traded is to be seen, but the foundational components of the EdgeRater and TradeStation tools have been described in context of Connors’/Alvarez’s work through the end of 2008.

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Feedback is appreciated and solicited -- contact info is in the Newsletter.  Of course, you can leave a comment here too.

Regards,

pgd


Monday, October 24, 2016

Buying Continues - Getting the Shopping Lists Ready

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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Cumulative Tick



Click on the image to enlarge.

For those of you who follow the cumulative tick (CT), you saw it steadily improve last week, possibly presenting a short-term change in trend.  Refer to the figure that I've posted.

The top plot shows the number of new highs (NH) and new lows (NL) that are occurring on the NYSE.  Tuesday through Friday saw NHs being generated, indicating that prices were moving upward.  Only Monday of last week saw more NL than NH, which was more/less negated throughout the remainder of the week.  From last Monday's perspective, caution was/is certainly advised.

The middle plot shows relatively strong buying early in the trading days on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as a weak Thursday and Friday.  The algorithmic buying trends are upward, so we need to pay attention to a possible short-term turn in the markets.

The bottom plot is the CT.  The white trace is the real-time, 1-minute trace, and everything else is a moving average.  When the white trace is above all the other traces, which occurred this past Friday October 21st, we should take note.  

Note taken.

Long-Cash Ratio

The GGT Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table is starting to turn positive, but we are not there yet:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The left side of the LCR figure shows that we have a very low ratio of stocks that are rated long to those that are rated cash (hence the L-C Ratio).  Anything below 1.0 means that cash-rated stocks dominate, and anything above 1.0 means that long-rated stocks dominate.

Whereas the raw LCR number on the left is a snapshot in time, the left-portion of the red-dominated table shows various moving averages of the LCR.  Important here is that down-markets are denoted by red, and up-markets are denoted by green.

The fact that we only have the 2d and 3d moving averages with a slope that is positive (green) indicates we are REALLY EARLY in any possible move to the upside.  More importantly, if you look back to the presentation in September, you see that these signals have been weak and have typically failed.  It has been hard to be a trend follower the past month.  Nevertheless, your crystal ball is as good as mine, and I have to be ready for the next possible move upward.

Here is what I'm looking for in the LCR table:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The key to the table above is the transition of the 8d LCR slope to green.  I've put a solid black line around it, as it tends to be the confirmation day for the markets moving upward.  Note that the right side of the table is a sea of green, which indicates that the day-over-day change of the slope (also known as acceleration) is positive.  We have more/less that same thing going on now with the present setup.

Greenfield Dividends

My Greenfield Dividends portfolio at Collective2 ( https://collective2.com/details/94780986 ) continues to do well, relative to the S&P 500.  Rules changed just after the January 2016 drop in markets and have been in place since February 1st, 2016.  Here's the performance plot since February:

Click on the image to enlarge.



The account has a significant amount of cash right now and is attempting to re-join the markets, but is having a difficult time finding improving stocks.  Subscribers of this portfolio receive automated emails of new orders and can follow the trades as they wish.  There will be a flurry of orders pending as markets turn, but once capital is deployed, the account falls into more of a maintenance mode with a few signals generated nightly as conditions dictate.  The more horizontal the markets, the more orders that are generated.  

Basic entry rules are these:
  1. The candidate stock must pay a dividend that is steady to increasing.
  2. The candidate stock must have accelerating revenues AND earnings relative to the same quarter a year ago as well as on a TTM basis.
  3. The candidate stock must be GGT rated as "New Long", "Affirmed Long", or be in a weekly/daily setup that supports movement to the upside on the day that the order is placed.  This shows both price and volume increases (stock is in demand relative to a set of optimized moving averages and rates of change).
  4. The candidate stock must be above the 21d exponential moving average (EMA).
  5. The candidate stock must not have earnings being announced on the day of entry.
My goal with this portfolio is capital appreciation as well as capturing dividends.  It is my intent to hold these stocks as long as possible.  I just unloaded AO Smith, which I held since May 2016.  Note that AOS went up a significant amount in this time, but not all stocks are as stellar as AOS.  The current holdings in this portfolio are as presented -- and some of these stocks have re-entry orders pending for Monday, October 24th.  Note that CZZ is on a tear and my system identified it early as it was taking off:


Click on the image to enlarge.

NTRI will report earnings this week, as will JBT and AM, so they will be reduced to core positions just prior to earnings release.  This methodology captures gains (or small losses) and ensures that exposure is reduced to possible bad news.

Strategy

My list of quality stocks, both dividend and non-dividend, is producing the following group performance:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top plot shows the group performance relative to the S&P500 for the past month and *if* I had purchased the entire list of stocks with equal weighting, performance would be as shown.  The price plot in the middle shows the group price and the 21d EMA, 50d MA, and the 200d MA.  Clearly, these stocks are all in an uptrend.  

Capturing this performance is not realistic for me.  I do not have a strategy nor enough money in my portfolios to buy 47 different positions so this is a blue-sky approach.  Maintenance of this number of positions also becomes a challenge in managing time.  Nevertheless, if you want an equity curve that moves from the lower left to the upper right then -- wait for it -- you have to buy stocks that are moving from the lower left to the upper right.

My list shows those.  

Subscribers to my Dropbox folder have access to this list for free.

Stocks from this list that:
  1. Pay dividends
  2. Are GGT buy candidates or
  3. Are in a weekly/daily uptrend 
  4. Are above their 21d EMA
  5. Have accelerating earnings and revenues
are:

AM, DLNG, and PZZA.  Note that AM announces earnings on Wednesday, so do your homework.  These are not recommendations to buy -- you MUST review these stocks in detail.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a stock worthy of further consideration.  This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Please do not use my stock files for your own professional (paid) gain.  

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  

Regards,

pgd




Thursday, September 29, 2016

End of Month-Quarter Window Dressing?

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

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This past weekend I gave a presentation where I stated it was time to get our shopping lists together.

Of course, as frequently occurs with Friday signals, Monday was a terrible day, effectively reversing the signal on a day-over-day basis:

Click on the image to enlarge.

If you look closely, you can see that the end-of-day (EOD) data for Monday, September 26th, showed that my LCR indicator had completely reset (left side of table, entire row is red-red-red).  This is a signal (to me) that this is not a "confirmation" of the uptrend nor is it an opportunity to enter the markets.  In fact, it literally raised the red flag.  The majority of my stock orders for Monday did NOT trigger and expired at the end of the normal trading day.  This is by design, and is why I only purchase strength.

On the other hand, this past Tuesday and Wednesday, with a focus on Wednesday, have seen significant stability and increase in volume AND prices in the market.  I know this because the only way the LCR table turns "more green" is if more stocks are classified "LONG", and in my system, they need both price and volume increases to achieve this.

This change in buying pressure can be seen with another tool I use, the Cumulative Tick:


Click on the image to enlarge.

If you are not familiar with the Cumulative Tick you should be.  Read the page here.

I've covered the presentation above numerous times in previous blogs.  Top plot:  52week daily high/lows.  Interpretation:  new highs outpacing new lows.  This is good.  This is an overall buying climate.

Middle plot:  Strength of buying and selling.  Trending upwards means sustained buying on a tick-over-tick or minute-over-minute basis.  You can see for yourself that the midpoint of the past two days has been strong.

Bottom plot.  the white trace is the instantaneous cumulative tick.  Moving upward is good, and moving upward above all the other moving averages (in color) is even better.  Whether we sustain the upwards movement is anybody's guess -- your crystal ball is as good as mine.

This is a buying climate, and I have a large number of orders placed for today (9/29).

Strategy

Simple.  I start with Greenfield stocks (read the presentation and listen to the presentation here).

For the Greenfield Dividends portfolio ( https://goo.gl/pKn45X ) I sort the list into Dividend paying stocks.  In general, these stocks are Dividend Challengers, Contenders, and Champions as defined by David Fish (google him).

The stock must be above it's 21d EMA.

Any stock that is rated GGT "New Long" or "Affirmed Long" is slated for purchase if it is not in the portfolio, and re-purchase if it is already in the portfolio.  

My entry price for a BUY STOP is 1.001 x yesterday's high.  The order is a day-order only.  If it does not fill it expires at the end of the day and goes to the expired orders place in the clouds.

I will also slate for purchase any stock meeting a new uptrend criteria that I have developed.  You will see this referred to as my "BT Strategy".  I've not released the strategy for public consumption, but you will see the trades in the Greenfield Dividends portfolio.

The Dropbox file contains a list, updated through September 28th, of all stocks in my universe meeting the Greenfield criteria.  You need to be a member of my Dropbox in order to see that list.  I will not be putting links on this web any more because I cannot track who is downloading and using the data for their paid services (you know who you are).  Disclosure:  IF YOU DOWNLOAD A FILE FROM MY DROPBOX, I SEE THAT YOU DID SO.  Don't be worried about this unless you have something to be worried about.

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My stock alerting service is fully functional and is available at https://twitter.com/grems8544.  Follow me and "Turn on Mobile Notifications" from within Twitter to get notified every time a breakout or pocket pivot is detected on a stock worthy of further consideration.  This service is free and those that are subscribed tell me they really enjoy the notifications and their review of the quality of the stocks is quite positive.  

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Please do not use my stock files for your own professional (paid) gain.  

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  

Regards,

pgd