Thursday, December 24, 2015

Initial Buy Signal, December 23rd

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you except to communicate something concise with the system.  Note that after several years I've never emailed the entire list so you're safe.  Having your email helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.

My trusty LCR table continues to show signs of strength, specifically on the left side where we have the 5d slope of the Long-Cash Ratio transitioning to a positive value:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The right side of the table is a sea of green, indicating that acceleration to the upside for the entire database is picking up.  This is a necessary condition to get the left side to turn green.

The cumulative tick is showing strength too:



Click on the image to enlarge.

The number of stocks on the NYSE that are hitting new 52-week highs equaled the number that were hitting 52-week new lows, so we're moving in the right direction.

The middle plot shows 2 days of sustained buying in the markets -- the big boys leave big tracks.

The bottom plot shows that there was no weakness yesterday -- sustained buying has provided us a nice upward/right movement of the cumulative tick.

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Now, all of this being said, this is an early signal.  I intend to commit fully, but I also intend to put some stops in place -- about 3% below my entry.  I am going to commit fully because we are in prime buying area on this cycle:


Click on the image to enlarge.

We are below 1 standard deviation where the markets typically turn  upward -- some would call it "oversold" in terms of placement -- I simply call it a high probability location for price increases for the overall database.

Markets are prone to failure around light volume periods, so have a plan -- have protection.

I buy strength -- period.  I set my order to a BUY STOP that is 0.1% higher than the previous day's high, timed to be effective after 9:45 a/ET, good-til-canceled.  If it doesn't fill and the stock still looks good I will lower it the following day.

My perfect setup is multiple days of decreasing volatility and today's action rocketing upward, both in price and volume that takes out at least the volume of the previous 10 days.

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Shopping Lists

We are in prime shopping territory.  I have my lists ready, and they are comprised of quality stocks.  Some lists are better than others.

To view the lists (and individual stocks), you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to pduncan [ a t} v _ t (dot] e du, fixing the address of course, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I attended Virginia Tech many moons ago and it is my alumni address, so it should be easy to see how to fix the address -- simply use "vt.edu".  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left, as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users.

Subscribe to my twitter feed if you want intra-day observations:  grems8544

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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd


Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Closer to a buy signal, Dec 22 Close data

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From my perspective, yesterday was a healthy day.  I think we're seeing the start of the Santa Claus rally:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The Cumulative Tick chart above shows that buying kicked in yesterday.  This is only Day One, but it is constructive.  The middle plot, which shows algorithmic, sustained buying, was fairly steady all day.  The big boyz are taking year-end positions.

On the bottom plot the instantaneous (white) cumulative tick is above the moving averages and is pulling all of them upward.  Although we certainly can fail at this point, this too is constructive and is a necessary indicator for me.

I'm going through my watch lists.

Click on the image to enlarge.

My other primary indicator is the LCR table above.  We see green on the left side, and lots of green on the right side, so the right-side acceleration is starting to cause the left side to turn positive.  This too is a necessary conditions for the markets to improve.

As you can see though, the indicator can show that the market is prone to failure right here.  I am looking for continued buying, which will drive the 5d and 8d slope of the LCR EMAs (left side of the table) to turn positive (green).  This will indicate that the tide is starting to flow back in, lifting all boats, and triggering me to buy.

Again, get your shopping lists ready.

Shopping Lists

We are in prime shopping territory.  I have my lists ready, and they are comprised of quality stocks.  Some lists are better than others.

To view the lists (and individual stocks), you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to pduncan [ a t} v _ t (dot] e du, fixing the address of course, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I attended Virginia Tech many moons ago and it is my alumni address, so it should be easy to see how to fix the address -- simply use "vt.edu".  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left, as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users.

Subscribe to my twitter feed if you want intra-day observations:  grems8544

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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Optimistic W, LCR-Price Divergence, CT One Year Ago

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Monday's action on the indexes, which is often misleading, was a bullish "W":


Click on the image to enlarge.

For me this falls into the "too little too late" column, as the Long-Cash Ratio continued to fall, indicating a general weakening of stocks:

Click on the image to enlarge.

While there was some thawing on the right side (acceleration -- see the previous blog entry), and this is a requirement for a turn-around, it certainly was not strong enough to compel any buying on Tuesday.  Note that the left/middle part of the table is still a sea of red, so entering the markets here is not prudent.

The Cumulative Tick isn't showing any significant improvement either:


Click on the image to enlarge.

Again, refer to Monday's blog entry on more details.  The bottom plot is most telling -- a very tight range with no aggressive buying or selling -- something has got to (and will) give.  Nothing on this chart tells me to get into the markets here.

As a comparison, and to answer a question I received over night, here's the CT from one year ago, debunking the statement that we cannot have a strong cumulative tick going into the Christmas holiday season:


Click on the image to enlarge.

As you can see, the left side of the figure could be us today -- white below red on the lower plot, and new 52-week LOWS being made (upper plot on the left).  Then it turned around, with buying starting in earnest and the algos throughout the day showing strong, steady accumulation (middle plot).  Note that this is Xmas one year ago -- and clearly, we can have a strong market climate into Christmas.

I'd like to see some indications of this chart in today's chart -- we simply are not there.

I'm taking Tuesday off and continuing my last-minute shopping.

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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Monday, December 21, 2015

Weekend Update, December 18th Close

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you except to communicate something concise with the system.  Note that after several years I've never emailed the entire list so you're safe.  Having your email helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.

Still No Buy Signal

For those of you who receive my real-time alerts, you know I've been slowly unloading positions as my GGT system indicates a transition to CASH for the individual stocks.  Last week saw continued weakness, despite the indexes going high then going low.  Underlying this volatility were clear indications that the big boyz and girlz were not participating, and hence, I stayed to the side lines.

Cumulative Tick


Click on the image to open a larger version.

Refer to other blog entries for more detail but here's what I'm seeing:

  1. Top plot:  52-week New Highs (green) and 52-week New Lows (red).  Red above green is less than ideal; more stocks are hitting new lows than are hitting new highs.  We are not in an expanding market at the present time (indeed - it's contracting).  Risk grows when this is the case, but so do buying opportunities (that risk/reward thing exemplified).
  2. Middle plot:  algorithmic buying and selling.  Flat line means lack of broad participation by the algos, in either direction.  Thursday and Friday were both flat, and as you recall, we had a fairly significant sell-off both Thursday and Friday, at least as far as the indexes were concerned.  THIS WAS NOT A BROAD SELL-OFF; I liken it to a retail whipsaw.  Even with Friday's quadruple witching options expiration we simply did not have the algos selling the market.  Volume was quite high Friday, so don't listen to the talking heads that everybody is on Xmas break -- they are not (at least as far as last Friday was concerned).
  3. Bottom plot:  Cumulative Tick plus moving averages.  White below red and horizontal for the past two days.  Markets are not buying nor are they selling, despite the indexes.  If you are invested in the indexes I feel sorry for your pain (note that my wife's TSP account is index driven). This plot tells me we are about to break -- either we will start to see movement to the upper right (white crossing red from below, which is bullish), or we will break further south (white continuing to drag all the moving averages down to the lower right).  Historically, we never stay in this position more than a couple of days, so I'm expecting a move either way.
Cumulative Tick Takeaway:  Institutionals are sitting pat and did not participate in last week's buying and/or selling frenzy.  There's a lesson here.

Percent Longs in Database

There are about 3000 stocks in my database.  Each is assigned a status -- broadly -- as either a CASH recommendation or a LONG recommendation.  The recommendation is based on a serious of individual optimized parameters (price, volume) for each stock -- the market indices do not matter.  When grouped together, I get a view of the actual market, not the market that is advertised on CNBC or other financial markets.  This is my own indicator and I could care less about what is in the WSJ or what the talking heads are saying.

When the number of LONG-rated stocks is high, relative to the number in CASH, the market has less fuel to move upward.  This isn't to say that buying in this zone is bad -- it simply means that risks of a reversal are higher.  Conversely, when the number of LONG-rated stocks is lower, buying opportunities are greater.  

Note that when the number is low we can remain low, and note that when the number is high we can remain high.  Here's Friday's chart:


Click on the image to open a larger version.


I've colored the chart above to show higher-risk (light red) and lower-risk (light green) areas.  When the percent LONGS is in the light green area, like now, we have a larger pool of stocks to choose from.  This is where we are currently in the present climate.  The actual value is 25.9%, and as you can see, historically, we're entering an area that has supported a rally up into the light red area.  Buying early during this period -- ONCE I GET A BUY SIGNAL -- has typically been better than buying aggressively when we're in the light red area.

Percent Longs Takeaway:  when I get a buy signal, I'm going to move fairly aggressively into the markets to capture the relatively low number of percent longs.  We're at a good time overall, but we need a buy signal.  See the next section.

Long-Cash Ratio Table

Related to the Percent Long chart is the following table.  When I take the number of LONGS and divide by the number of CASH-rated stocks, I get the LONG-CASH Ratio (LCR).  When I apply a moving average to the LCR -- actually a large number of moving averages -- and look at the slope or day-over-day change in the moving averages, I get s feel for the rising prices and volume increases in the database of stocks.  This is also known as the velocity of the LCR.  When I take the slope of the velocity -- the day over day change of how the LCR is changing on a day-over-day basis -- I get the acceleration of the LCR.





Click on the image to open a larger version.

The table above tells me three primary things:

  1. Left column:  RED means that it is less than parity -- more stocks are rated CASH than are rated long.  If you look closely, we're seeing a LCR of 0.349.  For every 349 stocks that are rated LONG, 1000 are rated in CASH.  That means that the market is getting beaten up, that there is lots of fuel, and that it pays to watch for buying opportunities.
  2. Middle area: Slope of the LCR moving averages (velocity).  Red means a negative slope, and as you can see, this is from the shortest of time frames (2d) to the longest (143d).  The database is contracting, which means prices are on the collapse for the entire database.  This is a negative velocity and means DO NOT BUY THE PRESENT MARKET.  
  3. Right area:  Slope of the slope (or slope of velocity, or acceleration -- all mean the same thing).  The right side just turned all red, again on all time frames.  Acceleration is negative.  For those of you who studied physics, if we have negative velocity, it's impossible to change to a positive velocity if acceleration is negative.  Think about it.  If the water is flowing out of the bay the boat sinks and will continue to do so until the water starts to change direction.  Only then will the boat begin to rise, not before.
If you look closely you can see that the action on Monday (Dec 14), Tuesday, and Wednesday looked fairly optimistic from the acceleration point of view.  We started to see green on the right, and this led to green for the first couple of measured periods for velocity on Wednesday and Thursday.  Note that Friday's action reversed it all -- effectively a reset -- so now I'm looking for solid green on the right side, which will precede green in the middle of the table.

LCR Table Takeway:  No buying on Monday.  With everything red, go Christmas shopping.  You are not going to miss anything in the markets today.

Shopping Lists

All this being stated, we're in prime shopping territory.  I have my lists ready, and they are comprised of quality stocks.  Some lists are better than others.

To view the lists (and individual stocks), you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to pduncan [ a t} v _ t (dot] e du, fixing the address of course, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I attended Virginia Tech many moons ago and it is my alumni address, so it should be easy to see how to fix the address -- simply use "vt.edu".  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left, as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users.

Here are the cumulative group behaviors of the stocks in each of my shopping lists:

Active Buy List:



Click on the image to open a larger version.

The list is comprised of stocks that are "LONG" rated and that have a positive expectation of price appreciation.  The lower-left / upper-right (LLUR) group price action is desired.  The green above indicates that it is a favorable list of stocks.

If we get a buy signal this is my primary discretionary list of stocks to choose from.  I will move aggressively to buy every stock on this list if it still looks favorable.

Dividend Champions



Click on the image to open a larger version.

My Dividend Champions portfolio is experiencing considerable price pressure.  This being stated, they are quality stocks, and as you can see, when they dip they never stay "dipped" for any length of time.  Selection criteria is that the stocks must have constant to rising dividends, earnings, and revenues to make the list.  For most of the stocks in this list, they have been paying constant to accelerating dividends for at least 5 years, and some greater than 15 years.  Revenues and earnings are measured in terms of the present quarter compared to the previous quarter, as well as the present quarter compared to the same quarter one year ago.

Key here will be to hold the longer-term moving average on price as a group -- failure to do this will make picking the individual stocks more difficult (a rising tide lifts all boats).  Price appreciation is a secondary consideration of this portfolio -- this is a longer-termed portfolio whose goal is to provide dividend income first, then move on to price appreciation.

This is a "live" portfolio and you can subscribe to it at Collective2:

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986

The link has the good/bad/ugly performance since I started the live portfolio in June 2015.

I am raising cash in this portfolio.

Accelerating Dividends


Click on the image to open a larger version.

The Accelerating Dividends portfolio, like the Dividend Champion portfolio, is experiencing price pressure right now.  It has a significantly lower number of stocks available to it than the Dividend Champions portfolio, so it has greater price volatility.  This being said, the goal with this one is both income through dividends as well as price appreciation, and as you can see, price action has topped and the set of stocks is decreasing in value.

The selection criteria is the same as the Dividend Champions portfolio as a foundation (the Dividend Champions portfolio is the seed for this one), but one more set of criteria is applied -- the stock must be trading in the upper 25% of the 52-week price range.  If you want stocks to make new highs then start picking stocks that are close to making new highs....

I am raising cash in this portfolio.

Greenfield Leaders


Click on the image to open a larger version.

The Greenfield Leaders group is doing well, as you can see in the graphic above.  Historically, this portfolio does well, but presently, it is seeing some pressure.

If we get a buy signal I will move aggressively to fill this portfolio.

Greenfield Low Beta


Click on the image to open a larger version.

The Greenfield Low Beta portfolio is on the ropes in the present market climate.  The group behavior is showing lower lows and lower highs, which is bearish.    The portfolio is designed to provide lower volatility than the S&P 500 but have a higher potential gain, and in 2015, I've failed to achieve that goal.  The chart above shows why this is the case, at least over the past month or so.

I am raising cash in this portfolio and as you can see above, if we drop much lower, there is little support to keep prices high with the current list of available stocks.  While these are quality stocks, they do not necessarily pay a dividend, so incentive to hold drops.

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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd


Friday, December 18, 2015

Still no buy signal, but in buy territory

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.

Hopefully, if you stepped into the market this week you did so with only a few trial balloons or preferably, you looked at what I posted and saw that conditions are not correct for entry.

More of the same going into Friday's open.

The Cumulative Tick still appears weak and indecisive:


Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

We're not seeing any great buying phase or selling phase.  Tuesday and Wednesday did see some net buying as far as the algos were concerned, but not what I would consider a sustained, everybody is playing.  Thursday's action, despite the hammering on the indexes (which is why I don't watch the indexes except to say they really don't matter), wasn't a big blood bath -- you can see the very tight range of the cumulative tick, which simply indicates a balance in net buying and selling on a minute-by-minute basis.

Note that the white cumulative tick line is near the longer-term heavy red moving average.  When (and if) white crosses red from below we'll start seeing the slopes of all the moving averages start to tick up, giving me confidence to enter the market.

We're not there yet, and this morning's futures are negative.

Speaking of futures, here's the S&P 500 e-mini:


Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Top is the e-mini price and bottom is the volume.

You can see that the close of yesterday saw a broad sell-off, effectively erasing the gains of Wednesday and half of Tuesday.  Review this chart in context of the Cumulative Tick for some further insights.

What is probable is that we'll test Monday's lows, hence, I expect more volatility and a bias downward.  If we can do this in a controlled manner I think we'll be okay; if there is a lot of volatility, then it probably will be more of the same, especially as the market dries up next week.

Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

My Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table is not indicating that I should be buying stocks.  It's starting to show some signs of getting closer to a buy point, but yesterday's action didn't trigger a buy signal, and frankly, neither did the strong action on Tuesday.

The LCR table also shows that we are starting to see some acceleration to the up side, as shown in the right side of the table.  We need the 2d and 3d slope of the slopes to turn positive with today's action, and if that occurs, we'll most likely get a buy signal into the weekend.

I'll certainly post the status of the process over the weekend and we can see what I plan to do for Monday.  I have my shopping lists ready but as far as I'm concerned, NO BUYING ON FRIDAY.

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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd


Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Closer, but taking Wednesday Off

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Despite the (artificial) rises in the indices, we're not much closer to a buy signal.

This being said we did see some good indications in the LCR Table as well as the Cumulative Tick.

Refer to the previous two blog entries for context:



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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Monday, December 14, 2015

Data does not support end-of-day reversal

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.

Contrary to what we saw in the markets with the Industrials up +0.60%, the NAS up +0.38%, and the SPX up +0.48%, the underlying data doesn't support the reversal.


Click on the image to view a larger version.

If you're not familiar with the presentation, review yesterday's blog (as well as others).

If there was broad, across-the-board buying at the end of the day, we'd see the white line above start to cross the slower moving averages from below.  At best it showed minor stability -- it certainly isn't enough to support a move of several 100 points in the Dow.

You can also see in both the top trace as well as middle trace that (top) we continued to see new 52-week new lows (red line), and in the middle trace, that computer selling continued into the close.

Tuesday is not a buying day.

My LCR Table suggests the same behavior:

Click on the image to view a larger version.

This is almost a mirror image of what I posted in Monday's entry -- red red red.  There was a bit of slowing on the right hand -- a partial green area approached, but it wasn't across the board and certainly, with red everywhere for Monday, Tuesday is a kick-back day.

Strategy

This isn't to say that we can't have a reversal from here -- we certainly can and the (approaching) oversold data shows it.  The point is that unless we see some follow-through buying on Tuesday it could be more of the same.  Perhaps the Fed has baked in everything they need to bake into the markets, but perhaps there will be a surprise.

Smart money is not taking the bait.  I'm not either.

I need to see the white line of the cumulative tick start moving upward, cutting across the moving averages.

I need to see the LCR Table start to show a sea of green on the right side, which will eventually lead to green on the left side.  We're not there.

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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd


Not buying, but getting shopping lists ready

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.

 I received a note over the weekend asking what I'm planning to do for the next couple of days.  Without overthinking this too much, here is what I see:

The markets continue to show weakness, as we all are experiencing.  Probably the greatest indicator (other than our unrealized gains) is the Cumulative Tick indicator:


Click on the image to make larger.

The top plots show the new 52-week lows (red) and the new 52-week highs (green).  The net between each is yellow.  Bottom line:  continued decrease on a 52-week basis, with large numbers of stocks hitting their 52-week lows.   Conclusion?  Not a good buying environment.

The middle plot shows algorithmic buying and selling.  When the red trace is above the blue line, we have buying.  When it is below the blue line, it is selling.  The indicator is reset daily.   As you can see, Friday was a strong selling day as far as computer selling was concerned.  In fact, it lasted almost into the final bell, which again, is not a good buying environment.

The bottom plot is my Cumulative Tick plot, and the white is the instantaneous cumulative tick, and the red is a long moving average (about 3 days).  When white is below red we have sustained selling, and when all the slopes are pointing down (upper left to lower right), we have a greater indication of sustained selling.  Terrible buying environment right now -- in fact, don't participate in bottom fishing, because the tide is still flowing out.

What I'm looking for in the above plots are:

1) top plot:  green above red.  This means that more stocks are hitting new 52-week highs than those hitting 52-week lows.
2) bottom plot:  white above red AND all slopes are positive (pointing to the upper right).  This means that the markets are starting to get interested in buying stocks, so hitch your wagon at that time.

We are not there, so Monday isn't a buying day.  Period.

Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) Table

My LCR table is solidly indicating that there is no chance of buying stocks on Monday:

Click on the image to make larger.

The latest data shows red-red-red.  The left side refers to the slopes of numerous moving averages -- moving averages of the number of stocks transitioning from a "long" rating (using my system) to a "cash" rating.  When this multiple-timeframe analysis has all the slopes pointing downward, money is flowing out of stocks and they are getting cheaper.  When we see it across short and long time frames it tells you that it is a broad move to safety.

The left side of the table is red, and has been since around 12/4, which is when I issued a sell signal.

The right side of the table is the rate-of-change of the left side of the table.  For you math types, if the left side is velocity, the right side is acceleration.  Again, considerable red on the RIGHT side means that we are accelerating downward.  An analogy is that the car is in reverse and it is accelerating in reverse -- the number of stocks flipping to a CASH recommendation increases on a day-over-day basis.

I'm looking for green on the RIGHT side, and if it is sustained, it will make green on the LEFT side.  This is when I start buying -- when we start seeing emergence of green on the LEFT side.

We're not there, so Monday is a selling day or sit-pat day.

Percent Longs in Database

All this being stated, we're in prime buying territory, WHEN we get the LCR table and Cumulative Tick to confirm it's time to start buying.  Here's the chart:


Click on the image to make larger.

We are in "green" territory, which means historically, buying stocks when in this zone has been a better proposition than when buying in the red area.  Graphically, this chart shows the percentage of stocks in the database that have a "long" recommendation, and as you can see, the number is dropping, e.g., we are approaching oversold territory.  Most of you will recognize that this is a good place to be, as supply will be high and when the buyers do step in, they will be buying a local lows.

It's not enough to simply start buying when we're in the green area above.  We need the confirmation of the Cumulative Tick as well as the LCR table -- so again, it's time to pay attention, but Monday is not a buying day.

Getting my Shopping Lists Ready

For GGT subscribers of my Dropbox, you have access to the updated stock and ETF files and which stocks are rated "long" and which ones are rated "cash".  The file is updated nightly and obviously, it follows that you should not be in any stock that is rated "cash" and that long candidates are those that are most attractive.

Although I'm not buying on Monday, here's my shopping list for the week:


If we get a signal after the Fed does what it's going to do this week I'll update the list (in the file).

If you're interested in having access to the file simply send me a note to pduncan {a t] v t {dot  ] e du  (fixing the address, of course) with "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll send you an invite.  Also, PLEASE please please subscribe to this list using the link to the left on this web page -- it's the only way I can communicate with subscribers as Dropbox corporate does not make this very easy for large number of subscribers.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPDATE:

Another question came in while I was writing this concerning the overall performance of different stock portfolios that I have.

In addition to the three links above, here is the relative performance of the stocks in each of my tracked portfolios.  The way to use this information is to

1) subscribe to the Dropbox to get the nightly file
2) look at the individual group behaviors and pick the performance / volatility that you are comfortable with
3) ensure that if you are going to trade something, that it is rated "long" (as per the nightly stock file)
4) unload any position that moves to a "cash" recommendation

SOOOOOOOO, *** IF *** a buy signal were presented (and we do NOT have one right now), the following charts show the relative performance of the stocks in that specific portfolio.

Note that this includes both "long" rated and "cash" rated, so the performance is most likely conservative and volatility is most likely a bit less.

Caveat emptor and all of that.

Greenfield Accelerating Dividends



Click on the image to view a larger version.

Greenfield Active Watch List


Click on the image to view a larger version.

Greenfield Bargains



Click on the image to view a larger version.

Greenfield Dividend Champions


Click on the image to view a larger version.

Greenfield Leaders


Click on the image to view a larger version.

Greenfield Low Beta


Click on the image to view a larger version.

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As you can tell from above, the Greenfield Leaders and Greenfield Active Watch Lists are the best performing portfolios in this present climate, and this is WITHOUT a buy signal.

Again, buyer beware.  Take ownership for your actions.


Friday, December 4, 2015

Raising Cash Position


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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.

With the close of markets on Thursday, December 3rd, there has been a transition in the short-term timer, indicating that I should be increasing my cash position and not purchasing stocks at the present time:


With the short-term and intermediate-term timers in CASH, but the long-term timer still on the long side, it's okay to hold some positions but certainly, buying right now is not a good idea, nor is holding onto stocks that have a major loss at this point (they most likely will continue to drop).

The Long-Cash Ratio indicator shows that Wednesday showed a reversal in sentiment, and that Thursday was a follow-through on this negative view:


The right side of the table is solidly red, indicating that all moving averages were slowing in a negative manner.  The left side of the table confirmed this (in part) on Thursday, with the shorter time frames all moving into negative territory (pointed down).

This same picture was provided by my cumulative tick indicator:


(click on the image to enlarge)

With 52-week New Lows exceeding 52-week New Highs (top plot), sustained selling both days (middle plot), and now the instantaneous CT (white) pulling the averages to a negative slope (all pointing downward), this isn't the environment that I like to purchase stocks.

Many of my positions are doing fine, but some are clearly underwater:


(click on the image to enlarge)

Strategy:

1.  Unload the GGT positions that are transitioning to Cash.  The file indicating this information for December 3rd (only) can be found here.
2.  I've cancelled all pending purchases; waiting for the right side of the LCR table to turn green.
3.  Possibly unload positions that are underwater.  We'll see.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Long-term Timer Transitions LONG, November 3 Close

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.


Brief update here -- with the close of markets on Tuesday, November 3rd, my models have transitioned long on all measured time frames.  Target equity is 100%, subject to market ebb/flow.





We are short-term overbought here -- the number of stocks that are rated long is high, relative to recent history, so we can expect a pullback at any time:



Note that the solid red line corresponds to a level of 63,4% longs in the database; we are at 60.4%.  3 more percent -- or roughly 90 more stocks transitioning to a "New Long" status (net of "New Cash"), and we'll be there.  We're averaging about +1.4% per day net New Longs, so 2-3 days at this pace.

When we hit this level I'll not purchase any stocks until we get back to a lower value.  Ideally, we'll pull back to the "Green" zone.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Bargains:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95793176
Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Sunday, November 1, 2015

End-of-Month Update, October 31, 2015

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.  If you miss a signal this system will most likely produce sub-par results, which isn't my fault.

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Summary Movie



Cumulative Tick



Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Last week's action was positive in that we have resumed "buying" as far as the market is concerned, but it is negative with respect to the overall strength of the markets.  The top right area of the figure shows that red and greens were fairly matched, meaning that on Friday we saw the 52-week New Lows outpacing the 52-week New Highs.  This is a warning sign of a not-so-strong market.  Volume was higher Friday, so the war was being waged equally on the driving of the NYSE stocks to both new highs as well as new lows.  Not ideal, in my view.

The bottom part of the figure is positive -- upward slopes on all moving averages for the cumulative tick and this indicates a resumption of net buying pressure, which is good.  

Certainly, there is no reason not to be long in the market, but if you're sitting on a bucket of cash, now is probably not the time to jump into the markets with both feet.  Here's justification of that statement:

Percent Longs


Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

The percent longs chart plots the percentage of stocks rated in some form of "long", using my GGT methodology, that are in the database.  The database is comprised of about 3000 stocks, and as you can see from the chart above, about 55% of them are "long".  The actual number is 55.3% as of the close on Friday (October 30th).  Historically, when stocks have hit the 55% level, the number of reversal days (where the market goes down to at least 46.2% longs in a series of steps downward) goes upward, indicating that we're in overbought territory right now.  If you look closely you can see that we're bouncing around a bit here -- the market is struggling to move higher.

This chart simply tells me that risk is higher -- it's okay to add stocks to a portfolio, but adding huge positions from large percentage levels of cash should probably be thought through.  This is because the chart shows you that the best place to buy stocks is when the percent longs is in the green zone -- specifically below 46.2%, and chances of moving higher increase dramatically if the value is below 34.3%.

For you statistical folks, the separation between the 46.2% and the 34.3% is one standard deviation (~11.9%)  so it follows that buying stocks below 22.4% would be a good idea.  Conversely, when the percent longs rises above 71.9% (today's numbers), unloading positions that have not been profitable would be a good call.

Long-Cash Ratio Table


Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

The LCR table, which shows the slopes of multiple moving averages of the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR), as well as the slope of the slopes, is shown above.  We're slowing -- and here's why:

On the left you can see that we hit a peak of the LCR of 1.331 on 10/28 -- 1331 stocks were long for every 1000 that were in cash.  We've fallen back the last two days with fairly small changes downward -- realize that more stocks in the database are failing in price behavior, hence why a cash ranking is climbing (long in the numerator, cash in the denominator, and if cash numbers go upward, then the value decreases).  

The Slope of the LCR EMAs shows that on the 2d, 3d, and 5d ranges that the slopes are negative.  The 8d is almost ready to flip over to red (negative), and if it does, we'll have another caution signals (like on 10/27).   The rest of the table is green but the numbers are smaller on Friday than on Thursday -- slowing.

On the right side of the table you see far more red -- this is the slope of the slope, and over on the right side, red always precedes red on the left (why?).  The numbers are less relevant on the right, but the color is important -- more red on the right will lead to red on the left.  We need more green on the right or else the table will be telling me to raise cash....

Long-term Timer Transitions LONG


Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

On a positive note, the longer-termed 5d/65d price MAs crossed from below, creating a BUY signal on a long-term basis.  We're weak here -- because we're in overbought territory -- but if we pull back slightly yet keep this signal long, it will be good for our portfolios as I'll be able to invest all the way to 100%.    We'll see.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Strategy

I'm adding positions in my customary way -- I buy strength above the previous day's high.  For those of you who subscribe to my portfolios at C2, you're getting a good idea of how GGT is doing.  The Dividend Portfolio there is 100% invested and is doing well.  Everything else is improving but still underwater -- but I stay with the plan.  For you subscribing to my text messages of trades and breakouts, you see my trades (buys and sells) as they are placed, so you see the good, the bad, and the oh my, what is he doing?

I have most of my monies in my Dividend portfolio strategy, as it seems more stable than any of my other portfolios.

Not making excuses here, but this has been a rougher-than-expected market for me.  I'd be interested to hear how others are doing -- my Dividend portfolio is up 2.3% since June and 6.6% in October.  Every trade is listed at C2 -- the link is below.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Bargains:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95793176
Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Weekend Update Video - Oct 18 2015

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.  If you miss a signal this system will most likely produce sub-par results, which isn't my fault.

Here's an updated video for your review:




This is the first one I've linked into my blog, so if you have trouble viewing, please post a comment below with what challenges you're having.

Regards,

Paul

Monday, September 28, 2015

Transition To Cash, Friday, Sep 25 Close

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.  If you miss a signal this system will most likely produce sub-par results, which isn't my fault.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With the close of markets on Friday, September 25th, my models are confirming a transition back to a 100% cash target.

Click on the image to enlarge.

The movement of the left side of the table to all-negative slopes is indicative of retesting former bottoms and indicates that I need to move to the sidelines.  We could either have a higher low, an equal low, or a lower low, so it's not worth jumping in here to ride the next wave upward.

The fact that the longest slopes (88d and 143d) never transitioned to positive/green status, as shown on the left side of the table, is indicative that risk is high and that we should not be committing monies at this time, at least not in any great sums.

Cash is king in this uncertain market.

The right side of the table is been giving me some warning of the decline -- the red is indicating that the acceleration has been decreasing (deceleration has been increasing) and this means that as a whole, the basket of GGT stocks is under great pressure.

Friday *did* show that the 2d and 3d accelerations (slope of the slope) did turn positive.  Could be noise, could be a signal of the bottom (doubt it), so this coming week will be interesting.

My other primary indicator, the Cumulative Tick, is on the fence:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The top trace shows that 52-week new lows are still outpacing 52-week new highs; this is not a buyer's market at this time.  I want to buy strength, and this is not a strong market.

The middle trace shows that the bias upward on Friday for buying was met by strong, sustained selling from about 2;10 p/ET to 3:20 p/ET, then the markets coasted from there.  The interpretation is that the markets simply went into "risk off" mode prior to the weekend.

The bottom trace is the cumulative tick and it shows that we have a slight downward bias to the markets (net selling but not strong), and that we could move either direction (horizontal movement, tight moving average ribbons, white (instantaneous) trace close to the red (longest moving average) trace).

Caution is advised.

Strategy

A large number of stocks transitioned to "cash" with the updates this weekend so I'm unloading those Monday morning with a 1% trailing stop loss, GTC, effective after 9:45 a.m.

I'm unloading everything in my Bargains, Low Beta, and Leader's portfolios using the 1% TSL.  This is due to the confirmation of the move to 100% cash signal.

The Dividend portfolio will sell positions that are indicated CASH but will not move into positions until the LCR acceleration (slope of the slope) improves.  Hence, the Dividend portfolio will raise some cash through the sell of equities that trigger the TSL.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Bargains:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95793176
Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd



Sunday, September 13, 2015

(Weak) Short-term Entry Signal, Sep 11th Close

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.  If you miss a signal this system will most likely produce sub-par results, which isn't my fault.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A few readers sent personal questions asking the same thing -- do we have a signal to enter?  The short answer:  yes.  Target equity for stocks that are working is 33% equity, balance in cash.  The only exception is the Dividend portfolio, which is striving to become 100% invested.

All this being said, the entry signal is a weak one at best.  What is making it weak are two indicators, one which is internal to the GGT method and one that I frequently publish.

Weak Indicator #1:  Cumulative Tick


Click on the image to open in a larger view.  Right click (if you can) to open in a new tab or browser.

My old friend, the Cumulative Tick, is flashing warnings everywhere.  From the top:

1) Red over green.  The 52-week New Lows are outpacing the 52-week New Highs.  Incredibly difficult to buy this market, or float a ship, when the bathtub is being drained.  Serious caution is advised.

2) The buying/selling algos are favoring selling into strength.  Admittedly, it's not strong either way, but it isn't confirming that the algos are buying.  I like to see algos buy, especially from 3 p/ET to 4 p/ET, which is when they are most active.

3) The instantaneous Cumulative Tick (white) is below the moving averages.  Yes, it's moving up, and doing so within intraday higher lows, but it's nothing to write home to grandma about.  Seriously, this is not a great presentation, so as in 1) above, serious caution is advised.

Weak Indicator #2:  GGT Recommendations with and without Volume

I've not talked about this one much but I've been running it since 2008.  For those of you familiar with the GGT recommendation system, you know the following:

1)   The only way we get to a "New Long" recommendation from any of the cash recommendations is to have BOTH price action and volume
2)   (Important)  The only way we get to a "New Cash" recommendation is to have price action drop below the optimized historical levels.  Volume doesn't matter.

Even though volume doesn't matter in a "New Cash", I still watch volume.  I keep track of two indicators -- one that has the net "how many stocks are transitioning to some form of cash status without any volume control", and "how many stocks are transitioning to some form of cash status WITH volume that is higher than the historical optimized threshhold?

The latter point is significant -- if we have a down day with higher volume than the historical optimized level then the stock is being sold, often by BIG BOYZ.  The take away is simple -- when the end-of-day price is negative, relative to the open, more stocks are showing an increase in volume.  A comparable situation is that stocks are dropping in price and their 20-day moving average is being squashed by the daily sell volume.

Caution is advised.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This isn't to say that if your horizon is longer that you shouldn't be jumping in here.  I am moving long with my Dividend portfolio and am trying to get into the mix as fast as I can.  My primary objective is to have stocks that are generating dividends, and price appreciation (or depreciation) is secondary.  Finding quality stocks with a "Long" rating isn't as easy as you may think.

This being stated, all the "good" performing stocks are updated in the dropbox folder.  Please review these to get a sense of what is working right now and what is not.  If you are not a member of my dropbox folder, then ask.  To become a member, send an email to pduncan [ a t } v t {dot ] e d u  (fixing the address, of course), and in the subject put "Dropbox" and I'll add you to TWO groups -- my Yahoo group, as well as the Dropbox group.  I need you in the Yahoo group because it's the only way I can communicate with the Dropbox users.  If you do not accept the invitation to both I will kick you out of the list as I need you to be in both in order to effectively communicate.  It's that simple, and now you have my (only) ground rules.


~~~~~~~~~~~~

Strategy

In the Dropbox folder, pay specific attention to the Leaders and BigFootprints stocks.  The former are quality stocks that are seriously outperforming the market right now and BigFootprints are being bought by institutionals over the last 5d, 10d, 15d, and 20d time frames.

I'm seriously thinking of buying some of the BigFootprint stocks if they continue to move higher.

My Dividend portfolio, which is available for free for a limited time and is a low monthly subscription (really, it is a low cost relative to others of the same quality), is doing well right now.  The links to the C2 portfolios are below.

I'm going to take the Bargains, Leaders, and Low Beta portfolios to 33% as stocks allow.

I only buy strength.

I only buy GGT "long"-rated stocks.  A listing of these stocks is provided in the nightly GGT stock file, under the "Dashboard" tab.

In buying strength, I place a BUY STOP that is 1.001 x the HIGH of the previous day.  This is 0.1% above the previous day's high.  The order is only valid after 9:45 a/ET, in order to permit the book on the exchanges to clear.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Bargains:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95793176
Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd



Wednesday, September 9, 2015

No Long Signal (yet), Sep 8 Close

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Please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Nobody gets your email except me, and I promise that I won't email you.  It helps me see the number of folks reading this as well as ensuring you get the signals on a timely basis.  If you miss a signal this system will most likely produce sub-par results, which isn't my fault.

Tuesday's action, despite being very positive overall, did not flip my timers to the long side. The hold out is that there is no "trend" -- the daily action moves us around but we need another strong day or two in a consistent direction to get a buy signal.

So, I'm not a big buyer today (Wednesday).  I've placed a few orders but overall, I'm not jumping in.  I'd like to see more sustained movement upwards.

Right click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

The LCR table continues to show strength.  If you look closely you can see that all of the slopes (left side of the table, bottom row) are "more positive", so strength today will cause more "green".  The right side of the table continues to show acceleration to the upside.

There is still risk here, and the reluctance of my models to move long is indicative of this fact:


Right click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

I've covered the Cumulative Tick chart enough that you probably know the presentation.  If not, read back a few entries.  You can see at the top that we're close on an equal number of 52-week new highs and new lows, which is good.  I like to see 52 week new highs dominate, so we're getting closer to a lower risk environment.

The instantaneous cumulative tick (white) is quite positive in presentation -- this needs to continue the trajectory that is shown.  If this occurs there will be no doubt about entering the market -- everybody will be buying (and they can't hide).

Strategy

I'm continuing to enter some positions in my Dividend portfolio. Pickings are slim right now, but the list is in the stock file that I post in the Dropbox folder.   I'm not entering positions in the other portfolios, but am keeping the lists active.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Bargains:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95793176
Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd