Monday, September 28, 2015

Transition To Cash, Friday, Sep 25 Close

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With the close of markets on Friday, September 25th, my models are confirming a transition back to a 100% cash target.

Click on the image to enlarge.

The movement of the left side of the table to all-negative slopes is indicative of retesting former bottoms and indicates that I need to move to the sidelines.  We could either have a higher low, an equal low, or a lower low, so it's not worth jumping in here to ride the next wave upward.

The fact that the longest slopes (88d and 143d) never transitioned to positive/green status, as shown on the left side of the table, is indicative that risk is high and that we should not be committing monies at this time, at least not in any great sums.

Cash is king in this uncertain market.

The right side of the table is been giving me some warning of the decline -- the red is indicating that the acceleration has been decreasing (deceleration has been increasing) and this means that as a whole, the basket of GGT stocks is under great pressure.

Friday *did* show that the 2d and 3d accelerations (slope of the slope) did turn positive.  Could be noise, could be a signal of the bottom (doubt it), so this coming week will be interesting.

My other primary indicator, the Cumulative Tick, is on the fence:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The top trace shows that 52-week new lows are still outpacing 52-week new highs; this is not a buyer's market at this time.  I want to buy strength, and this is not a strong market.

The middle trace shows that the bias upward on Friday for buying was met by strong, sustained selling from about 2;10 p/ET to 3:20 p/ET, then the markets coasted from there.  The interpretation is that the markets simply went into "risk off" mode prior to the weekend.

The bottom trace is the cumulative tick and it shows that we have a slight downward bias to the markets (net selling but not strong), and that we could move either direction (horizontal movement, tight moving average ribbons, white (instantaneous) trace close to the red (longest moving average) trace).

Caution is advised.

Strategy

A large number of stocks transitioned to "cash" with the updates this weekend so I'm unloading those Monday morning with a 1% trailing stop loss, GTC, effective after 9:45 a.m.

I'm unloading everything in my Bargains, Low Beta, and Leader's portfolios using the 1% TSL.  This is due to the confirmation of the move to 100% cash signal.

The Dividend portfolio will sell positions that are indicated CASH but will not move into positions until the LCR acceleration (slope of the slope) improves.  Hence, the Dividend portfolio will raise some cash through the sell of equities that trigger the TSL.

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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Bargains:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95793176
Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986
Greenfield Leaders: https://www.collective2.com/details/94921209
Greenfield Low Beta:  https://www.collective2.com/details/95702992

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd