Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Closer to a trial buy signal, Tuesday, September 1

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All my timers are in CASH.

My Greenfield Dividend portfolio holds limited positions at this time.  It is mostly cash due to prudent money management policies.  It will be the first portfolio to buy as soon as we obtain more stocks that are rated "long".




Despite the thawing that started to occur last week on August 26th, mid-day, the markets are not indicating that I should step in.  The cumulative tick pattern, shown above, indicates that more stocks are making 52-week lows than are making 52-week highs.  This is not a "rising tide" and is not a good stock buying environment.

Risk is high.

The bottom trace indicates buying (in general), but is not sufficient for a buy signal.  The fact that the white trace is above the red trace is constructive, and indicates that net-net the market is buying here, it does not mean that we cannot go south.  We can, and we most likely will retest last week's lows.

The LCR table is indicating that we are close to a buy signal:


The LCR rose Monday despite the drop in markets.  This means that there is buying with falling prices.

The solid amount of green on the right side of the table indicates that acceleration of stocks prices is upward on a day-over-day basis.  This is a good sign, and is necessary for a buy signal.

There will be no buying Tuesday.  I'm not interested in bottom fishing.  I need the following:

* 5d or longer LCR slope to turn positive
* continued green on the right side of the table.

You can see the "head fakes" on the left side of the table.  The red-green-red patterns as we step through the days means that we've seen much back/forth.

Again, risk is high.  I am not being aggressive here.

Strategy:

Sitting pat for Tuesday.  Lists are updated in the GGT Dropbox, so go review against your own criteria.  Many of the candidate stocks that are rated LONG look good here.

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As always, do your own diligence.  You are responsible for your actions and I am not.

Regards,

pgd