Thursday, December 19, 2013

New Long Signal for Thursday, December 19th

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With the close of markets last evening my timer systems are indicating a "new long" condition for stocks:



The challenge that I have here, which makes this a weak signal, is that we did not get a "full confirmation" from the intermediate timer system, which means that although yesterday appeared strong, it really wasn't as strong as in the past (relative to other times the timer has switched).

For this reason I'm cautious, and will only be looking at stocks that are breaking out on higher volume, as measured intraday.

None of the Effective Volume (EV) Divergence (www.effectivevolume.com) stocks pass my screening for potentials to the upside, but as many of you know, my screening time frames are much longer than those used by Pascal, the administrator of that site. This being said, the following stocks have good price/EV behavior over multiple time frames and are all in some form of GGT-long status:

ITT
EBS
OMCL
EVR
FNGN
UA
BWS
GMED
GNTX
HOMB
PEGA
WETF
AMTD
CLB
DORM
TW
ADVS
EJ
HEI
HIMX
PACW
PBH
PVTB
AYI
HTHT
HURN
SFUN
WX
HZNP
SAVE
AFFX
PRFT
GIII
PII
HF
IGTE
NUS
DDD
LIOX
MA
PCLN
WDR
MANH
SWIR
VFC
WIT
CONN
GA
JAH

Better EV stocks, with respect to timing, are at the top of the list.

Regards,

pgd

Friday, November 8, 2013

GGT Intermediate Timer Signals Move to Cash 11-8-2013

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All,

With the close of markets last night on November 7th my intermediate timer has signaled a transition to CASH.  I'm unloading all positions that are underwater and that have reverted to a "New Cash" basis.  My holdings after these are cut free are:

DDD (+19%)
FSS (+6%)
GEL (-2%)
HZO (+11%)
ILMN (+13%)
PDFS (+30%)
SAVE (+3%)
USAT (-6%)
XRS (+21%)

GEL and USAT operate under different rules and I'm precluded from selling them until they transition to a GGT "New Cash" status.

This overall signal has been marginally profitable -- with today's sell I should be up only +0.98% with the closed positions.  Of course the remaining holdings will boost the final values, and if I closed everything today we'd be up about 9% on this last signal in total.

I'm raising cash to limit the damage, and you should consider doing the same.

Remember, do your own diligence, and remember that you are responsible for your actions -- I am not.

Regards,

Paul

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Back long into the markets on 10/15/2013

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A quick note to say that I'm moving back into the markets.

My long candidates can be found here.  All of these stocks meet my "green screen" criteria; ask if you have questions:


Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Note that this is a partial list and is limited by screen capture/display.

All of these stocks are also "GGT Long, Affirmed Long, or New Long" in recommendations.

My strategy will be to buy stocks that are breaking out above yesterday's highs and that also show strong intra-day volume.

Happy hunting.

Regards,

pgd

Monday, October 7, 2013

Moving to Cash Effective Tuesday, October 8th

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Good evening all,

My Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) timing system has indicated a move to cash. Since my crystal ball is as good as yours, I'll be liquidating weaker positions on Tuesday, October 8th and will effectively be manually-managing what is left.

My LCR table is here: right-click on the table to open in a new window or tab:




The Elder timer section is on the left and you can see that it flashed a warning on 10/3, appeared to resolve itself on 10/4 in preparation of a deal in Washington, and today was quite poor.

The LCR slope indicators have been negative since Thursday last week, and even Friday's action appeared to be window dressing. With three consecutive days of falling LCR values on all measured time scales, the signal is clear that we should move to the sidelines.

The overall timer over the last month is here:




For those of you who are not familiar with my system, the performance has been relatively steady over the past (almost) 5 years:




So, to the sidelines I go, at least until I get a reversal in signal.

Stocks that are on my watch list are included in the following file:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3pcau45upfnjlkz/13OCT04-CombinedLeaders.txt

All of these stocks have favorable EV characteristics, as well as meeting my "green screen" (see previous posts).

Post your questions if you have any.

Regards,

pgd

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Early signal to enter - 13JUL01

Good morning all,

With the close of markets on Monday, July 1st, I have a conditional entry signal for the long side. Conditional entries arise when not everything is confirming, but the primary timer system indicates that we should move long. This is the case.

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) system is my primary timer. This system ranks, on a daily basis, over 3000 stocks in terms of their performance relative to adaptive moving averages. The system has been in play since September 2008 and is an intermediate to long-term timer system. 

Here is the most recent LCR table:


Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Of significance here is that we've had three consecutive days of buying stocks, causing the slope of the LCR line to turn positive on a 2d, 3d, 5d, and 8d basis. Although the normal signal is to buy when the slope turns the 5d and 8d positive (e.g., this past Friday), this was the ONLY timer to indicate long this past Friday, and I feared another whipsaw. Monday's action was a bit of follow-through, and a number of internal indicators that I employ also started turning long (-ish), although this isn't a resounding "jump in with both feet". 

Let me re-iterate that -- not everything is moving long on the same day. We have a gradual thawing, but nothing to get too excited about.

The timer status table, which indicates a short-term, medium-term, and long-term timer state is below:


The short-term timer fired a few days ago when the thawing started to occur. I rarely follow this timer as it's too short for my liking.

The intermediate-term timer is just (conditionally) moving to the long side. The "mixed" state indicates that not everything that comprises this time is indicating long -- and indicating some caution. 

The long-term timer still indicates that we are in a bullish period.

I've updated my thrust list (see earlier thread) and the best stocks, relative to an EV-weighting methodology that I've developed, are located at the top. Nevertheless, ALL these stocks meet my "green screen" criteria and are candidates for longer-termed holdings.

As with all my musings, you are responsible for your own actions and I am not. Please take ownership for your decisions.

Regards,

pgd

Friday, June 21, 2013

Gotta Love Whipsaws -- Confirmed Move Back to Cash June 20

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With the close of markets on June 20th, my models have whipsawed completely back to the cash side.  I knew this signal was suspect, but as I indicated in my previous entry, I'm compelled to take every signal.

The damage has been quite light overall.  My underlying methodology when a new signal is generated is to do the following:

1) Update all candidates in terms of my "green screen".  I've presented the details elsewhere in this blog on what I look for -- I simply remove any stock that is not indicating "green" in my TradeStation scan and add new ones that meet this criteria.

2) I take this new list of "leaders" and I use a proprietary method of ranking 5d, 10d, 15d, and 20d Effective Volume.  I want EV to be indicating new buying in the stock, so 5d > 10d > 15d > 20d with all values positive.  This gives me a list from the best EV candidates to the "worse", although "worse" hasn't been proven as these are all good stocks from my list.

3) I ensure the stock is a GGT "Long"-rated stock:  New Long, Aff. Long, or Long.  Rare exceptions will allow me to review a CASH-indicated stock.

4) I buy on strength.  I typically place a BUY STOP order for the previous day's high price + 0.1%.  So if the stock was $20 high as of yesterday, I place a BUY STOP for $20.02.  If it was $150.00, the BUY STOP is $150.15.  The duration is for the next trading day only.  If the stop never triggers yet the stock is good as far as GGT is concerned I lower the BUY STOP and the process repeats, as long as my macro indicators are still showing an expanding market.

The last point is where we are now.  My macro indicators, namely the LCR (Long-Cash Ratio), have all moved negative in momentum.  I'm not buying stocks, I have no pending orders, and I'm exiting my holdings as GGT indicates.

Damage has been quite slight using this method.  I still have substantial gains in some of my positions, keeping the accounts above break even.  Nevertheless, I'm seeing the tides change, so I expect to be moving to Contra ETFs very soon.

Regards,

Paul

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Model Signals Conditional Long Entry

Good day all,

A number of you have sent private notes asking how I'm doing and if I still post. The quick answer is that 1) yes, I'm quite well, and 2) there hasn't been much to post about, so my time is filled with other activities. Just so you are aware, aside from my day job, I've been actively seeking my birth parents (I'm adopted), and I've recently found their family lines using DNA and am working to narrow the field down to a few individuals, and 2) I'm in the process of selling my company and this is taking a considerable amount of attention. I continue to update GGT on a daily basis, post the files in the Dropbox, and keep abreast of the signals generated from my model. I've all but shut out all external noise from the talking heads, and I think my trading/investing is better for it.

With the close of markets today (June 18), my primary timers are indicating a conditional long entry. "Conditional" status is simply because not every timer is confirming the signal, but my primary one has fired and it is often more right than wrong, so here I am.

Here's the GGT Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table:


Right click on the image to open it in a different tab or window.

The LCR has had two days of advancing into positive territory, and the transition of the 5d and 8d signals is generally a positive move, indicating that as a whole, the database is starting to see prices and volume move upward. This is a reliable signal in general, but in this state of QE-infinity all bets are off. Nevertheless, I've taken the most favorable stocks from this list and have entered conditional orders for Wednesday, and if they fill, they fill.

Here's my list: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gm1pmdowe3fwhf4/13Jun18-CombinedLeaders.txt 

These are sorted most favorable EV pattern descending, so BEAV sits on the top spot and it goes down from there. These are all "Green" stocks, meaning that they meet my tight screening criteria (covered elsewhere in this forum), and as you can see, the list is small as of right now because we've been in the throws of a consolidation.

I have no idea if this is a valid signal. With performance history as my guide, I'm taking this signal. Here's the performance of the timer since 11/2008:


These stats are compiled using the GGT index, which is mostly duplicated by investing in the IWM or VTI ETFs. I tend to invest in stocks with much higher beta than IWM or VTI, so my performance generally is better.

For those of you who subscribe to the Real Time Thrust Monitor at the Effective Volume site (www.effectivevolume.com), I've uploaded this latest list and you can get intra-day breakouts as they occur.


As always, do your diligence, and take ownership for your actions. 

Regards,

pgd

Monday, April 29, 2013

Update for Monday, 29 April

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The new combined leader list can be found here.  As usual, the list is sorted with the best Effective Volume stocks at the top, going into Monday, April 29th, and descending down to the worse timing.  All these stocks pass a rigorous screening and my view is that they are all worthy of investment.

My holding period is several days to weeks, and in some cases, months.  I make no representations as to trading these stocks on a short term basis -- I do not perform analysis on this time frame and my timer systems are not tuned to short time frames.  In other words, your on your own.

For those of you who know how I screen, here is the "green table" (as it's become known).  Not all the stocks in the combined leader's list is here due to screen capture limitations, but the best for timing entry are presented:


As with all my blog images, right-click on the picture to open in a new tab or window so you can scan the details.

Column descriptions are to be found here.

As a group, e.g., a mini-index, the behavior is solid but range-bound:


This suggests that we are losing our ability to make new highs, and although I'm still on a long signal overall, expecting all these stocks to continue to climb would be rather foolish.  We *can* expect the individual stocks to outperform as well as underperform the chart above, and this is why timing with Effective Volume is important.

Regards,

pgd

Thursday, April 25, 2013

13APR24-Timer Indicates "New Long" into the Markets

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With the close of markets on Wednesday, April 24th, my GGT timer has confirmed a move into the markets on the long side.  Shorting stocks or trading contra ETFs should be avoided if your time horizon for holding is typically longer than a couple of weeks.


As you can see, we're prone to whipsawing right now so the level of commitment into equities is subjective.  I am only placing orders for GGT securities which are "long" rated, and have a strong preference for GGT securities which are showing a cash-strength of +4 and/or favorable effective volume (www.effectivevolume.com) and/or are flashing a "New Long" status.

Daily updates of stocks on my list, along with their recommendations, are available if you send me an email to pduncan [at] VT [dot] edu, editing the syntax as necessary, and place the word "Dropbox" in the subject field with nothing else in the subject.

For those of you who are familiar, there are a number of leading stocks who should be on your watchlist.  My scan of this universe produces the following table:


Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window to make larger.

To save you time in typing, the list of stocks above, sorted most favorable EV at the top descending, is as follows:


BIOL
VCLK
BOFI
CPTS
LOPE
NXST
CBM
EPL
SSI
KR
PRXL
STC
CTCM
CONN
MMP
KMX
MPW
SIRI
ACOR
FOR
SBGI
CZZ
HF
JRN
VMED
PIKE
PGTI
SIRO
ASTX
SFLY
SIG
EVC
HOTT
NLS
FLO
AB
CERS
COG
HCI
BX
GMCR
JOEZ
BEAV
PUK
HIMX
LEDR
SMI
TCX
WTT

Of course I urge you do perform your own diligence and to take responsibility for your own decisions.  I am not responsible for anything you do with this list of stocks.  Note that I have orders placed with many of these stocks.

Whether is this a short-term, failure-prone signal or not is left for the folks with crystal balls.  I take every signal, and I use GGT's methods to get into and also jump out of stocks.  

Happy hunting.

Regards,

pgd


Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Whipsaw - Moving Back to Cash

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I'm on travel so I will be brief.

My GGT model has indicated a whipsaw with the 4/11 signal to move long, effectively reversing any move to the long side. I continue to raise cash and ignore all "New Long" signals that are occurring in equities.  Now is not the time to be opportunistic, as the tide is clearly turning despite earnings season.

Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd



Thursday, April 11, 2013

GGT Model Signals Long 4/11


I'm on travel so this will be brief.

My GGT model has signaled that I should move long.  Stocks that are breaking out will be fair candidates, as well as GGT stocks signalling "New Long".  A listing of the latest stock database can be shared via Dropbox if you send a message to pduncan [a-t] vt.edu, replacing the [a-t] with the @ symbol and no spaces, and make the subject of the message "Dropbox".

The GGT long-term timer is long, and has been for some time.  The short-term timer and intermediate-termed timer just transitioned long with the close of markets on 4/10, so here we go into earnings season.

Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd



Tuesday, March 19, 2013

March 18 - Short Term Timer Transitions to Cash, Stay the Course (for Now)

With the close of markets on Monday, March 18th, my GGT short-term timer has transitioned to cash. Investing in the ETF VXF or IWM would have yielded about 1.1% gains since the signal transitioned long, if you close at or better than the closing price of March 18th.



This *could be* a good entry time if the markets reverse and continue their climb. Watch the MF indicator at the Effective Volume site (www.effectivevolume.com) and stay on the correct side of that recommendation. With my intermediate-term and long-term timers still solidly bullish, pullbacks in quality stocks should be examined closely for favorable EV patterns.

To this latter point, the link HERE is of the most recent leader's list and is sorted best EV patterns descending on a 5d, 10d, 15d, and 20d lookback timeframe. My focus is the top of the list.

Note that this list changes daily with respect to order and MINOR changes to composition are weekly. This is a very solid, relatively-static list, with major updates and close examination on the weekend.

Due to my pending travel schedule I'll try to post an update using Friday's close but then it will be static for the period 3/23 - 3/30.

Regards,

Paul

Monday, March 11, 2013

All Timers Long, Futures Pointing Down, Possibly Good Opportunity for Entering

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Futures are pointing downward this morning, and all my timers are LONG (short-term, intermediate term, long term). This could be a good buying opportunity.

The following stocks are from my Leader's List for the week and are valid Elder Entry Candidates. They have not been screened for EV (http:/www.effectivevolume.com), so do your own diligence on these:


As with all my images, right click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

An Elder candidate on my list meets the following criteria:

1) the 13d EMA of price is in an up slope condition (positive short-term day-over-day growth)
2) the 34d EMA of price is in an up slope condition (positive long-term day-over-day growth)
3) The 2d Force Index (google it) is NEGATIVE, indicating a short-term pullback in a long-term uptrend
4) The 13d Force Index is POSITIVE, indicating demand over a longer period for the equity

These 4 conditions set up the trigger.

If the price takes out the previous high, enter the equity a few pennies above the high. I typically add 0.05% or 0.1% to the high as my threshold. This is a conservative entry method, and it allows you to trigger entry if the stock continues moving upward.

A more aggressive approach is to use the previous close. More prone to failure in my opinion, but it also gets you in at a better price.

In either condition, if the BUY STOP does not trigger at your established level on the given day, simply readjust your order so that the new price is the entry on the next day. MAKE SURE the other conditions still apply (items 1-4 above).

Note that I own CVI, DXPE, OCN, and SPF from the previous list.

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My Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) Slope Model continues to show bullishness on all fronts:


Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Note that the LCR continues to grow, indicating stocks are participating in this new leg upward, and that the left side of the table is showing more green. These are positive slopes, so on multiple time frames we are seeing stocks participate in price, volume, AND price rate of change performance. This is healthy.

On the left side of the table we have a sea of green. This tells me that we are seeing continued acceleration upward in stock participation, e.g., more stocks are joining the party day-over-day than are leaving, and everybody loves a party.

All signals are prone to reversal, but for now, all my indicators continue to point to the long side. I'm buying the pullbacks in accordance with the Elder entry method described above.

Here's my timer status:



EV stocks that I have a particular interest in today if they continue their accumulation by the large players are as shown:






These three stocks are from my leader's list and all meet my criteria for possible entry.

As always, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd


Thursday, March 7, 2013

Intermediate-termed Timer Transitions Long -- All Timers Long

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As I indicated yesterday, the intermediate-termed timer was holding a "mixed" status with the short-term and long-term timers indicating "long".

All timers are now "long".

This is a mature market, so ensure you are buying quality stocks.  A list of quality stocks can be found here, and has been updated as of March 5th.

My strategy for entering positions is as follows:

I'm watching intra-day for stocks on the provided list of quality stocks to have higher prices on higher volume, intra-day.  I use an algorithm that I copied from Mike Scott to predict whether the intra-day volume will be higher at end of day, and if prices are up and the value of the predicted volume is at least 150% above the 20d MA, then I'll most likely move long in that position.  Hence, move long on volume and price breakouts.

Performance of my timer system has been good overall.  Market conditions change, so whether the performance will continue is anyone's guess.  Since 11/21/08, using the GGT index (which looks like the VXF or IWM in general) has returned over 18% per year compounded.  I'm big on limiting drawdown, so the worse case trade using the index has been -2.4%.  Of course, if you invest in stocks with a higher beta than IWM or VXF, adjust accordingly.



Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Happy hunting.

Regards,

pgd


Wednesday, March 6, 2013

New Short-Term Buy Entry Signal - Effective March 6th

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With the close of markets on Tuesday, March 5th, the Long-Cash Ratio model I employ, which looks at a database of over 3000 stocks and individually assigns a "long" or "cash" rating, has moved to a short-term "buy" signal. Entry on the long side into stocks is enabled when we have unanimously have several days (or weeks) of decreasing slopes on multiple moving averages of the LCR, then we get a reversal on the 2d, 3d, 5d, and most importantly, 8d:


Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

On the far left side of the table you see the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR). It closed at 1.167, meaning that we have nearly a 1:1 ratio of stocks that are performing above their historical out-performance thresholds relative to those that are under-performing these thresholds. In the slopes area, Monday saw the 2d MA move barely positive, and then on Tuesday we had the 2d, 3d, 5d, and 8d moving positive.

Providing some confidence is the sea of green on the right side of the table. This is the slope of the slopes, e.g. acceleration, and as you can see, on most measured time frames the markets have been reversing their downward movement and stocks are pulling upwards above their thresholds, moving into "long" status. 

The 8d threshold is not without whipsaws -- look back at 2/19 and you can see that we failed in that signal and subsequently moved lower. It certainly could happen here -- your crystal ball is as good as mine.

Consequently, my timer systems are moving back into the long side of the picture:


Note that the long-term timer has remained long for the duration and has kept me in the markets for the most part. The short-term timer just transitioned long for the first time in two weeks -- but note that this is quite sensitive and could whipsaw. My Elder intermediate timer still is on the fence -- the markets have not resumed their move upward in an aggressive fashion across the board (indexes are driven upward, broad stock performance still is moving slower relative to the indexes) hence the model is saying "move long, but do so smartly".


This last table is an analysis that I did concerning the movement of LCR transitions. On the day of a transition use the left-most vertical column to select the row (or rows) of applicable moving averages that were already long prior to the day. Since Monday produced a 2d transition to the long side in the LCR table shown at the top of this blog entry, we're restricted to just the top row. Now, with the action of Tuesday which caused the 3d, 5d, and 8d to transition, select the columns under 3dt, 5dt, and 8dt and read off the range of values. 

Historically, when the 2d has been already long, and the 3d, 5d, and 8d move long on the next day, we have between a 47% chance and 76% chance of long entries working out. This used the GGT price index -- not actual stocks -- so mileage may vary.

Stocks that are good candidates today are (best Effective Volume setup at top descending to bottom):

SPF
AOS
SIRO
SMP
EVR
VRTU
AB
SEIC
CYNO
HES
MTW
CVI
DK
AHS
BLC
BOFI
TISI
VMED
CLMT
MTZ
PIKE
SAM
TRN
DXPE
HVT
LGND

I'm long in a number of names: CVI, DK, DRN, DUST, DXJ, GEL, PIR, SCO, USAT, and WGO.

Regards,

pgd