Thursday, March 7, 2013

Intermediate-termed Timer Transitions Long -- All Timers Long

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As I indicated yesterday, the intermediate-termed timer was holding a "mixed" status with the short-term and long-term timers indicating "long".

All timers are now "long".

This is a mature market, so ensure you are buying quality stocks.  A list of quality stocks can be found here, and has been updated as of March 5th.

My strategy for entering positions is as follows:

I'm watching intra-day for stocks on the provided list of quality stocks to have higher prices on higher volume, intra-day.  I use an algorithm that I copied from Mike Scott to predict whether the intra-day volume will be higher at end of day, and if prices are up and the value of the predicted volume is at least 150% above the 20d MA, then I'll most likely move long in that position.  Hence, move long on volume and price breakouts.

Performance of my timer system has been good overall.  Market conditions change, so whether the performance will continue is anyone's guess.  Since 11/21/08, using the GGT index (which looks like the VXF or IWM in general) has returned over 18% per year compounded.  I'm big on limiting drawdown, so the worse case trade using the index has been -2.4%.  Of course, if you invest in stocks with a higher beta than IWM or VXF, adjust accordingly.



Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Happy hunting.

Regards,

pgd