Monday, October 7, 2013

Moving to Cash Effective Tuesday, October 8th

Good evening all,

My Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) timing system has indicated a move to cash. Since my crystal ball is as good as yours, I'll be liquidating weaker positions on Tuesday, October 8th and will effectively be manually-managing what is left.

My LCR table is here: right-click on the table to open in a new window or tab:

The Elder timer section is on the left and you can see that it flashed a warning on 10/3, appeared to resolve itself on 10/4 in preparation of a deal in Washington, and today was quite poor.

The LCR slope indicators have been negative since Thursday last week, and even Friday's action appeared to be window dressing. With three consecutive days of falling LCR values on all measured time scales, the signal is clear that we should move to the sidelines.

The overall timer over the last month is here:

For those of you who are not familiar with my system, the performance has been relatively steady over the past (almost) 5 years:

So, to the sidelines I go, at least until I get a reversal in signal.

Stocks that are on my watch list are included in the following file:

All of these stocks have favorable EV characteristics, as well as meeting my "green screen" (see previous posts).

Post your questions if you have any.