Bearish Price/Strength and Price/LCR Divergence

.
Summary

• Rising prices but falling strength index does not point to a healthy bull market.  This is our current situation.
• Because of rising prices, we see that the slope of the 55d EMA on price has turned up.  This is necessary for a bull run to resume, but note, all the EMAs below the 55d are still pointing downward.  This effectively will continue to kill the bull if these do not reverse.
•  The LCR continues to fall despite the increase in prices, giving us another bearish divergence.  The synchronization of the LCR and the strength index presents a bearish bias to the market, futures up nearly 1% as I write this notwithstanding.
• I'm going to let the divergences work themselves out before I commit substantial monies to the market.

===============

Let's start with the dashboard:

As with all my images, right-click on the pictures to open in a different tab or window.

The GGT price index rose +0.43% on Wednesday on volume that was -11% below the 50d MA.  Rising prices on lower volume does not make for a raging bull, but -11% is within the standard deviation of being normal, so read into this what you may.  I don't think it is a great sign.

The pricing EMAs are intact, with only the 8d < 13d.  This means that the decline that we have experienced (nearly 10% in GGT prices) is still not enough to cause these EMAs to invert, which overall is bullish.

Wednesday saw a bit of recovery in the pricing slopes, with the 55d pricing slope turning upward.  Hence, although we are still pointing down on the 8d, 13d, 21d, and 34d, this drop over the last week or so has not been severe enough to persist when we have an up day.  I take this as a crack in the bear ice and we need to be ready to play the markets to the upside, should the indicators point us that way.

Despite the increase in prices, the underlying strength of the database fell -5.9% on Wednesday, which means that we have a divergence, and in this case, a bearish one.  Strength is a function of a number of things -- prices, volume, and rates of change -- whereas price is simply that.  A falling strength means that the underlying number of stocks in the database is not supportive of the increase in price, volume, and/or rate of change, and this generally is not a good thing.  Either 1) GGT prices must fall to align themselves with the falling strength, or 2) strength must improve in order to support the increase in prices.  Only time will tell.  This is a bad sign though, because the strength index is broad and deep, whereas price is simply broad.

Note that the strength index is at 0.249, which is the lowest value it has been at since July 2010.  This does suggest that we could see upside movement, as a number of stocks have "reset".

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) fell an additional -9% on Wednesday, aligning with the fall in the strength index, but giving us a bearish divergence against the rising price index.  The final value of 0.585 indicates that we have 1076 stocks that have some form of LONG status and 1838 stocks with some form of CASH status.  Put another way, 37% of the database is LONG.  The bearish divergence between the LCR and price cannot be sustained, much like the price/strength divergence.  Either we will see 1) GGT prices fall to align themselves with the falling LCR, or 2) the LCR must reverse and move upward to support the increase in price.  The fact that LCR and strength are working in synchronization tells me that we have a sustained bearish bias in the markets, futures being up nearly 1% notwithstanding.

Overall, the bias is downward, but with the GM IPO today, the govern't need to save face in view of the GM IPO (if the GM IPO fails Joe-Taxpayer will NEVER allow the government to bail out any company going forward, giving the market no reason to move up because a safety net will have been removed).  Hence, today is a sucker's rally, as there is too much news to play.  I will be content to sit on the sidelines and watch. I need these divergences to work themselves out before I commit substantial cash to the market.

================

Short-Term LCR Change Timer

The timer is now in it's 6th day of being in CASH.  The GGT index has fallen nearly -9.3% in this time, so I suppose that this is a good timer to watch.  I plan to stay the course for my short-term investments.

================

Intermediate-Term Elder Force Index Timer

This timer has been in CASH for the past 4 days, with two days confirming out of this 4, and is telling us that it is NOT prudent to play positions for the intermediate-term.  Hence, I'm not playing positions.

Nevertheless, I run an internal portfolio of Elder candidates that are showing strength in light of existing market conditions.  Here's the list of candidates going into Thursday's action:

PETS
AHS
FALC
STRA
AIB

Note that AIB is early, as the slope of the 34d EMA is negative but will cross into positive territory if the stock moves up.  Note that with all the noise about Europe and the PIIGS, you may want to avoid this equity.

===================

Top 25

We've had a major rotation in the Top 25 since last Wednesday.  Here's the new list:


ABV
AZO
BBL
BIDU
CKH
CLW
CMG
DRQ
FCX
FFIV
FOSL
GYMB
IBM
LNN
MIDD
NFLX
NOV
NVO
PCLN
PH
PXD
RL
UFS
UNP
WLL

I launched this portfolio a couple of weeks ago (probably not a great time to launch a new concept), and we have fallen -2.7% since that time.  Note that CLW and MIDD are new additions to the Top 100 source list, as they were New Longs or Affirmed Longs within the last week and have maintained this status.  All other stocks have moved up in the leader's list, which I find interesting.  Under the rules of this test portfolio I will purchase equal-weighted positions with available cash, and will sell everything not on this list.

The Top 25 does not use any form of Elder criteria to enter/exit.  It is purely managed once per week.

======================

India

In general, India's long stock market, as measured by the ETFs FNI, EPI, PIN, INDY, INR, INP, and ICN is moving downward:

• Bull power is negative
• Elder Force Index is negative, both methods
• MACD histogram is negative and trending downward
• The slopes of the 13d and 34d EMA on price are pointing downward and the 13d slope is below 0 (losing money day over day)
• The 8d EMA on price just crossed the 13d EMA from above, which is bearish.

I see no compelling reason to do anything with India at the present time.

INDZ is the Direxion -2x leveraged contra ETF for India.  While it looks compelling for entry, the volume is very low -- 7300 shares on 50d MA of 4442 shares -- it simply isn't liquid enough for me.  But I'll keep checking it week over week...

=====================

Platinum

Platimum has reversed off of it's peak on 11/9 and is plunging, preventing any form of long entry.  Here's the setup:

• Bull power is negative
• Elder Force Index is negative, both methods
• MACD histogram is negative and trending downward
• The slopes of the 13d and 34d EMA on price are pointing downward and both are below 0 (both are losing money day over day)
• The 8d EMA on price just crossed the 13d EMA from above, which is bearish.

I'm avoiding any long position in platinum.

Although PTD is the -1x contra ETF for platinum, there is no volume to speak of.

====================

Natural Gas

My NatGas index, formed with UNG, GAZ, FCG, and UNL, has just moved long.  Here's the composite chart:

The challenge here is that it's been long, moved to cash per Elder with Tuesday's action, and has just moved long again.  On the positive side it seems to beholding the 40d MA with the close Wednesday, so we may see it move up from here.  On the negative side Bull Power is barely positive, the MACD histogram just moved negative, and both the slopes of the 13d and 34d EMAs are negative and pointing down.

I plan to avoid NatGas for now.

========================

The Yen

The Long Yen, as measured by the FXY and the JYF, continues to collapse, so there is no change here.  I plan to avoid the Yen.

The YCS is the -2x leveraged contra ETF of the Yen, and it looks interesting:

Of significance here is:

• Bull power is positive
• Both Elder Force Index methods are positive
• MACD histogram is positive
• %B is 0.78, suggesting more upside room exists
• The slopes of the EMAs are positive and pointing upward.
• 8d EMA of price just crossed above all the other EMAs, which is a very bullish indicator.
• Volume looks good overall.

Here's what GGT has to say about YCS:

Correspondingly, I will pick up a position in YCS if it continues to show strength today.

=======================

Remember, you are responsible for your own investment choices, not I.  Please take ownership for your work.

Regards,

pgd

Avoiding New Long Positions, Elder = CASH, ST Timer = CASH, Contras are Early

.
Summary:

• The LCR ratio has fallen below 1.000, the first time this has occurred (transition from above to below) since 8/11/10.  More stocks in the database are contracting than those that are expanding, as a whole.
• ALL slopes of the LCR EMA's are negative.  This is the 4th day in this state, and in this period, the database price has fallen -5.998%.
• The LCR EMAs continue to be inverted (5d < 8d, 8d < 13d, 13d < 21d, 21d < 34d).  The 34d is still above the 55d, which indicates that this still could be a short-term correction, not a prolonged "where is the bottom" move.
• The short-term LCR Change timer remains in CASH. This is the 5th day in this state.
• The intermediate-term Elder Force Index Timer is in CASH.  This is telling me to avoid purchases in any long positions.  This is the 3rd day in this state.
• ALL slopes of the pricing EMAs are negative.  This is the first time this has happened (transition from Bullish to Bearish) since 8/11/10.  Until these start turning up I shall absolutely avoid any thoughts of entering long positions.
• -3x Contra ETFs have just signaled an initial confirmation of entry, as determined by the 2-method Elder Force Index
• The -2x contra of the Euro, the EUO, looks interesting for Wednesday.
• The -2x contra of silver, the ZSL, also looks interesting for Wednesday.
• Avoid Russia, as it is breaking down.

=====================

Something New

Starting today, I'm going to make it an attempt to look in some detail, given the GGT and Elder lens, at different vehicles that we should be considering.  I'm proposing the following days/categories for review; the days correspond to the days that you should see some information on those particular areas:

=======================

-3x Contra Index

I discussed this concept at last weekend's monthly meeting.  Essentially, HGSI allows us to form our own index, and if I use the Direxion 3x leveraged inverse ETFs in a group, we can get a very good indicator of what is going on in the market.

Here's the -3x Contra Index chart:

We have a preliminary early new bull signal with respect to the -3x contra ETFs.  Here's the rationale, starting at the top of the figure:

1. Bull Power is positive
2. Bear Power is positive
3. Both 13d Force Index methods (EMA and SMA) are positive
4. The MACD histogram is positive for it's 4th day
5. The MACD is above the MACD signal line
6. The 13d EMA slope is positive and pointing upward
7. The 34d EMA slope is pointing upward (but is still negative)
8. The Bollinger Band %B value is 0.71, which suggests plenty of upside room

We are early in this chart, which means overall, we are early for contra ETFs.  Here is the arguement to wait:

1. No EMA crossings have yet occurred, e.g, the 8d is just below the 13d.  Despite the 8 points above, entering now is risky unless we can find individual equities.
2. We are well below the 40d EMA and the 160d EMA in terms of price.  Until we close above the 40d, this is risky.
3. We are not in any form of sustained downtrend.  Until the 40d x 160d from below, you have to be very, very, very nimble in playing contras.  Surgical strikes are the rule of the day.

Here are some thoughts that I am having at the present moment:

=====================
The Euro

The Euro continues it's weakness, as measured by the ETFs FXE and the EU, resulting in terrible chart patterns.  Everything about the Euro is telling us to continue to "run away", and if the 8d EMA crossing the 13d, 34d over the past 5 days weren't enough confirmation, we have a nail in the coffin appearing with almost a certain closure of the 8d and 40d, which will occur on Wednesday if FXE keeps moving downward.  Here's the chart:

There's nothing here that I find worthy of our monies.

This being said, the leveraged contra ETF on the Euro, the EUO, looks compelling for entry.  Here's the chart:

Here, we see a couple of confirming indications that suggest we should be considering this for some form of entry on Wednesday:

1. On 11/9 the Elder Bull Power moved positive, the MACD histogram confirmed the behavior of the rise with three days continuously rising, and the 13d EMA Slope line crossed positive;
2. On 11/10 the 8d EMA on price crossed the 13d EMA of price from below;
3. On 11/12 the 34d EMA Slope line crossed positive;
4. With today's action, the 8d EMA on price crossed the 34d EMA of price from below and Elder's 13d Force Index has moved positive with both the SMA and EMA calculation methods.

As a check, %B is just shy of 90%, which my trading partner Hsin likes to use as a cutoff criteria.

The only thing remaining is a price closure above the 160d line as well as a crossing of the 13d and the 34d from below.  Hence I'm considering a 50% position in EUO provided the conditions remain in place with any type of pull-back on Wednesday.  The other 50% can get added when we get the 13x34d crossing as well as the closing above the 160d line.

================

Silver

Presently, silver looks terrible as measured by SLV, SIVR, USV, SIL, and DBS.  Elder's 13d Force Index (both methods) is decisively negative, effectively blocking entry to the long side of silver.

Conversely, the contra side of silver, as measured by ZSL, looks interesting:

Again, a number of conditions make this a good candidate for entry, albeit a bit early:

1. Elder's 13d Force Index, both calculation methods (EMA, SMA) have turned positive now for two days.  This is the enabling gate for the equity.
2. The MACD Histogram has been positive for two days.  If tomorrow is an up day, then this would confirm the trend as far as the MACD is concerned.

What makes this early is that both the 13d/34d EMA slope lines are negative.  Countering this, they both are trending upwards rapidly, and the 13d will cross over to positive territory if Wednesday is an up day.  Another early situation is that none of the EMAs have crossed, e.g., the 8d has not crossed the 13d from below.  With positive-trending slopes this will occur; if the positive trend occurs it is simply a question of time whether this is on Wednesday if the trend continues or Thursday.

Given this uncertainty, I'm considering a 20% position in ZSL, with an entry on any strength.

==================

Russia

I've been watching Russia, first via the Russian ETF RSX, and also by available ADRs that correspond to Russia (CTCM, MTL, MBT, VIP, WBD).  Here's the chart; Russia is an avoid for now:

==================

Trading Plan for Wednesday:

I intend to give serious thought to small, initial positions in selected contra positions.  I have no intention of entering any long positions at the present time.

=================

Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, not me.  Please do your diligence and take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

All Timers in Cash -- No Ambiguity

.
Jumpin' Joe is diligently updating the GGT stock file for me as I type.  My bride had emergency spine surgery last night so I've not been able to do a full analysis on the LCR using the GGT system.  All is well; I'm camped next to her while she rests here at Reston Hospital.

Thanks to Joe for the extra effort.

==================

GGT Universe a' la HGSI

Pictured above is HGSI's view of the GGT universe, as of November 15th's symbol list.  Let's go down the graph one step at a time so we can see what we're looking at.  As with all my images, right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

• The top line is Elder's Bull Power indicator.  This is simply the 13d moving average (MA) of the price series subtracted from the high of the day.  When this is positive, the bulls are in control... well, almost.  The value here is $3.70.
• The next line under Bull Power is Elder's Bear Power.  This is simply the low of the day subtracted from the 13d MA of price.  This value is negative at -$3.27; if the magnitude of this exceeds bull power (e.g., 3.27 is smaller than 3.7 right now, or if  | bear power | >  | bull power | we know that the bulls are in trouble.  As you can see, we're close to this right now, but the bulls still have the edge.
• The top ribbon bar indicator is Elder's 13d Force Index, calculated using exponential moving averages (EMAs) as opposed to the one below it, which is calculated using a simple moving average (SMA).  EMAs respond faster, and we've now had two days showing that we have a negative Force Index.  In fact, the raw value of the FI(13) EMA was -4,900,000 on Friday, and -7,500,000 with the close on Monday, which is the wrong direction to go if we want the bulls to win.  Overall, a downtrending FI(13) that is of this magnitude is something to pay attention to on the sell side.
• The middle ribbon bar is the Elder FI(13) but calculated with a simple moving average.  Of significance is that this is massively positive:  +25,600,000, so it is going to take time for this to move negative (or a massively down day on volume AND price).  Dangerous currents indeed.  As it stands, this indicator is strongly bullish, but remember, it weighs the market action 13 days ago the same as yesterday's action, so it does not move nearly as fast.
• The bottom ribbon bar is the Elder FI(2), which is a very short, "do we enter here?" indicator WHEN BOTH THE FI(13) METHODS ARE POSITIVE.  Since this is not the case, ignore this one.
• Underneath this is the MACD graph.  I draw your eye to the histogram, which is negative.  A negative histogram is bearish, and while the market can go up while this condition exists, you're swimming up stream.  Don't do it.  As I frequently remind folks "Salmon swimming upstream eventually get eaten by bears"
• Another key aspect of the MACD histogram is that the trend of the histogram has been heading down for 5 days, another bad indicator for the bears.
• Of significance is the window below the MACD, which plots the slope of the 13d price EMA as well as the slope of the 34d price EMA.  As you can see, not only is the 13d slope below the 34d slope, you see that they are both pointing downward and more importantly, the 13d slope is now below 0 (losing $/day).  This means that on a 13d time scale that you are losing money.  Read this again.  On a 13d time scale you are losing money.
• Finally, in the pricing pane, note that the aggregate GGT price ($276.92) has closed below the 13d EMA ($278.12).  This isn't a good sign.

=================

In the for what it's worth bucket, I'm moving 100% to cash.

=================

Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, not me.  Please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Elder Signals Move to CASH

.
Folks,

Family-related events in my world are preventing me from a blog entry.  I expect that this will continue for the next few days, so I'll post when I can.

The Intermediate-Term Elder Force Index Timer system has moved just barely negative, by only -10,000 points, tenatively indicating that we should consider a move to CASH.  Purchasing stocks today is not in your best interest.  Hence, I am not going to provide a list of candidates.

Regards,

pgd

Deteriorating LCR, Elder Intermediate Timer Long, LCR Short Term Timer in CASH

.
Welcome from Northern Virginia.  I was unable to post yesterday due to my travel schedule, and things should be "back to normal" for today's action.

==============

Summary

• The LCR fell for the 2nd consecutive day confirming the move to CASH on the Short-Term LCR Change Timer
• The slopes of the EMAs on the LCR -- 5d, 8d, 13d, 21d, 34d, 55d -- are all negative.  When this has occured in the past it has been dangerous to my intermediate-term investing health.  I plan to prune my weakest stocks today (FUQI and EFA are GGT New Cash going into 11/12, LULU and BC are the weakest of the GGT, LLC holdings, and SKS and GSIT are my weakest personal holdings).
• LCR Strength Index has pulled back to 0.580, which is sitting on an artifical support line.  Although this indicates we have plenty of room to run upwards, breaking this support line and closing below is not a good sign.  I think today's market action will be crucial.

==============

Long-Cash Ratio Analysis

We need to be aware of what is occuring with this indicator:

The LCR has fallen three conecutive days, landing at 1.94 on 11/11.  It is presently indicating that 65% of the stocks in the database are LONG, or put another way, 1866 are LONG and 962 are in CASH.  Three days of falling LCR is normal market behavior and by ittself, we should not be concerned.

With respect to the raw LCRs themselves, the 13d EMA has remained stubbornly below the 21d EMA, which kept a crack in the ice and is a bit of a concern.  I am watching to see if more of the LCR EMAs "invert", that is, that the faster EMAs drop below the next adjacent slower EMA.  If we see more red in the middle of the figure above we know that we're in trouble.  Conversely, if the picture in the middle does not change, we should be in relatively good shape for entry into stocks.

The right-hand side of the figure above is problematic from my perspective.  ALL of the slopes of the LCR EMAs, from the 5d through the 65d, have now turned down.  This is a bad sign, and unless these turn upwards, the green LCR EMAs in the middle of the figure don't stand a chance.  When these slopes of the LCR EMAs turn down across the board, without ambiguity, it tells me to prune my weaker holdings.  In this case I define "weaker" as those holdings with a poor relative strength, or if you use the GGT stock files, you can check the Long Strength column for the appropriate values.  In the latter case, anything with a 1 or below can be considered weak.

I consider the rate of change of the LCR EMAs important:

In the figure above, I am plotting the rate-of-change (slope) of the 13d, 21d, and 34d EMAs on the raw LCR index.  When the values are in the white zone, upper portion of the figure, the LCRs are climbing positively on those time scales, and when they are like shown in the lower portion of the figure, the LCRs are losing ground on those time scales.  I already showed in the previous figure that the slopes of the LCR EMAs were negative; this figure shows what this looks like for three of them.

In the figure above, the fact that all of these are pointing downward does not bode well for us.  It suggests that there is not a floor at the present time, hence I would expect raw LCR values to continue to drop.  Because the LCR is tied to price and volume action it is highly likely that we will see a corresponding drop in the individual prices of stocks.  This is not good for our present holdings, but it is good if you have cash and are waiting on the sidelines.

===================

Strength Index

I have an oscillator that allows us to look at the strength of the underlying database, in terms of the minimum and maximum values that it has ever attained in the history of the GGT universe.  Here's the graph:

The figure above shows that we have hit all-time highs with the GGT price index (dark blue), and at the same time, we have dropped in the overall strength of the database to levels that are at an artifical trend line support.  This is artificial because the world does not know this chart -- it's a "pure play" for us and it gives me an unbiased view of the behavior of the database in terms of strength.  I am specifically looking for this support level to be violated with one-or-two additional closes substantially below the level where we are today -- 0.580 -- and if this occurs, I would not be surprised at seeing overall market volatility increase a considerable amount as well a more-significant pullback to visible market support levels (SPX, INDU, N100, etc.)

We'll see ...

=================

Short Term LCR Change Timer

The LCR Change Timer is in CASH.  Positions in QLD, UWM, and UYG were closed on Thursday, November 11th, all for a realized loss.  This loss is due to a number of things: 

1. my travel schedule this past week,
2. internet problems at home precluding access to my tools while I was on the road, and
3. nuances with TradeStation concerning order entry/order execution. 

Hsin and I are working on procedues to overcome external issues such as what we've recently experienced.  Actual loss values with respect to the position size in the GGT, LLC portfolio are:

• QLD, -1.34%
• UWM, -0.82%
• UYG, -1.41%

I am presently in CASH with respect to all short-term LCR Change Timer holdings.

=================

Elder Intermediate-Term Force Index Timer

Elder's Force Index Timer is still showing LONG.  Given this, there are candidates that are available for purchase:

WSTL
PNX
PTRY
DLIA
WIN
AOL
HMSY
CHK
DNP
MLNK
MTSN
FNFG
TRST

Note that this is downselected from a list of over 141 initial candidates; infer what you will in this.

================

GGT Top 25

Every Wednesday I will provide a list of new GGT stocks that meet my top 25 criteria.  Those stocks are:

GOOG
PCLN
AAPL
CMG
CEO
AGQ
AMZN
ABV
NFLX
MA
CF
CME
AZO
FCX
BIDU
BAP
GYMB
SOHU
LNN
SNP
AMG
SI
PTR
BEN
PCP

The top 8 are relatively unchanged in position from last week, and AGQ is a new addition to the LONG list.  Note that these candidates all are in some form of GGT LONG as of the close of the markets on Wednesday, November 10th.  These have not been further screened for entry.

===============

As with all equities, purchase on strength, not weakness.  Elder's 2d FI method provides a good basis for learning how to do this.  Ensure you pay specific attention to volume on the day of purchase -- e.g., buy stocks in demand, not ones that are simply increasing in price.

===============


Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, not me.  Please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Short-Term Timer has moved to LONG-CASH; prepare to close ST positions

.
Greetings from Spokane.  Today's entry will be sparse, as the home base is having Cox internet problems and I cannot access any of the updated GGT files.  Sorry for the inconvenience.  My summary is below:

==============

Summary

• We experienced a -1.05% drop in the price index on volume that was 19% above the 50d MA.  This is significant and can be considered a distribution day.
• The slope on the 5d LCR value has turned negative.  This is a crack in the ice, and shows that the gains that we have achieved over the past few days are tenuous.  Any subsequent drop of additional LCR slope values will not bode well for the bulls.
• The 13d EMA of the LCR remains stubborningly below the 21d EMA.  This too is another crack in the ice, and I do not want to see any further EMAs inverting.
• The Short-Term LCR Timer has transitioned to LONG-CASH (0).  If today is down as measured by the http://www.finviz.com/ ADV/DEC bar, then this will signal a short-term move to CASH.  My positions in QLD, UYM, and UYG are underwater at the present time so I am anticipating losses for these positions if we are forced to close today.
• The Short-Term LCR Timer that uses the VTI (Vanguard Total Index) is still long.  I would suggest closing any VTI position for a profit if you can; I have locked in 1.49% in 4 days in the VTI.
• The Elder FI(13) has had a negative slope for the past two days, but is well above 0.  Unless today is a terrible day overall this will remain long.  I do not advocate purchasing stocks until we get movement upward.

=============

Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, and I am not.  Please think before you act.

Regards,

pgd

Everything is LONG; One Minor Crack in the Ice

.
Summary

• We continue to see a relaxation of the markets, as measured by the GGT Strength Oscillator.  While still very bullish at 0.806, it has relaxed enough from overbought areas to allow us to continue higher.  
• The Long-Cash Ratio indicators are indicating that the database is expanding in the numbers of stocks available to choose from.  This improves our chances of success in picking stocks that will appreciate.  The LCR Indicators are telling us to be long in stocks.
• GGT price and volume were relatively unchanged with Monday's action, which indicates either a breather/consolidation or churning within the markets.  Today's (Tuesday's) action will be important.
• Short-Term timer is LONG, and positions are appreciating as designed.
• Intermediate-Term timer is LONG, and there are numerous opportunities for entry today.
  
• I am traveling Tuesday-Thursday so blog posting will be on an as-capable basis.

=============

LCR Indicators

The LCR indicators look the same as they did yesterday except there is one more row of green/red as applicable.  We still have the hold-out with the 13d LCR EMA less than the 21d LCR EMA, which is a crack in the ice but appears to be refreezing over.  All of the slope lines on the LCR EMAs are pointing upward, so if this continues, the 13d LCR EMA MUST recross the 21d LCR EMA from below, giving us complete green lights across the board.

In the three days that all the LCR EMA slopes have been completely green the GGT price index has increased +0.595%, so while early in this reaffirmation of a bull leg, we are certainly within it.

Aside from the 13d/21d LCR holdout, this system is telling us to be long in stocks.

=============

GGT Dashboard

Despite the primary markets being down yesterday, the GGT universe of stocks squeaked out a small gain.  Remember that I screen on stocks that are $1, have at least 100K 50d MA Volume, and that trade on the three primary exchanges.  The GGT price index moved up +0.07% to end the day at $27.58, a gain of +$0.02, and an all-time high since GGT's public unveiling in September 2008.  Volume was down slightly, ending the day -2% below the 50d MA of volume.  This is within the noise level so consider this a normal day in the neighborhood.  Unchanging prices on unchanging volume is either a sign of churning or indecision, so today's action will be important for the overall short-term trend.

Here's the dashboard:

The pricing system, comprised of their EMAs and slopes, are all green, which is very bullish for the markets.  There is no debate that we should be holding stocks long at the present time.  I used yesterday's apparent pull-back in some equities to enter numerous positions long, so I'm swimming with the trend.

Pick your stocks, pick your entries, and watch for an abrupt change in the LCR or Pricing systems.  Right now we're pointing upward.

===================

Short-Term LCR Change Timer

The short-term LCR change timer has completed it's 4th day of being long.  Since this time my personal position in VTI, my proxy for the GGT universe, is up +2.23%.  I entered QLD and UYG because of this signal and QLD is presently up +0.64% and UYG is up +1.71%.  If you are not in the markets with this signal I would not enter now, as this is a very short-term timer system (hence the name).

The official sell signal for these holdings is the short-term LCR change timer transitioning to a (-1) CASH position.  We are officially at least two trading days from that signal, and with the futures up as I write this, I do not think that today will be a reversal day (but your crystal ball is as good as mine).

I intend to stay the course with these holdings, but because of my travel the next three days, I will place a TSL equivalent to their ATR(20).

===================

Intermediate-Term Elder Force Index Timer

Elder's Force Index Timer system is LONG, indicating we can enter stocks on the long side.  The slope of the FI(13) fell yesterday, providing an opportunity to enter stocks on the long side.

My list of Elder Candidates is long so I will stop the list at the top 25 or so, as yesterday saw a pull-back, resulting in the FI(2) going negative.  Enter these stocks only if volume and price are moving upward (FI(2) transitioning positive by the end of the day):

MWW

NXTM

SKS

CNH

MBI

CENX

SBH

WCC

LUFK

AME

SLB

PMTC

ITUB

MCO

BDC

CODI

BUCY

PUK

SBS

CLP

PM

SLTM

AVT

TOT

LWSN

Disclaimer:  I hold a position in SKS.

=================

GGT Top25 Stocks

This is a new strategy that I am presently testing.  My "cream of the cream" are the following:

CEO

MA

GOOG

CMG

AAPL

BVN

Aside from these, my pool for entry is also:

ABV

BIDU

SOHU

LNN

SNP

DRQ

AMG

RVBD

SWM

These stocks will possibly change with the close of Wednesday night's markets, so entry on the Tuesday prior could be dicey.  Nevertheless, these are all quality stocks, and if you are holding any of these, you're probably pretty happy.

=====================

General Disclaimer:

I have personal positions in SKS, WBSN, GBG, FOSL, GSIT, VTI, SSO, VXF, FUQI, EGY, SMTC, EFA, NOG, and JAZZ.

=====================

Remember, you are responsible for your actions, not I.  Please take ownership for your decisions.

Regards,

pgd