Tuesday, October 13, 2009

GGT Notables from Monday, October 12th

Monday gave us another all-time high in GGT price -- $19.40 -- but again, on terrible volume of 1.09M shares, a full 27% below the 50d average volume level of 1.49M shares. Visions of the Robot in Lost in Space "Warning Will Robinson", with arms flailing, are dancing in my head.

Bull-strength continued to fall, indicating that while prices are going up, the number of New Longs + Affirmed Longs continues to drop. You can't sustain rising prices with a falling bull-strength -- it's impossible over the longer-haul.

The GGT LCR fell again, albeit only slightly, from 1.35 to 1.322, with 2827 stocks now indicating a long status and 2139 stocks indicating some form of a cash status. This is a -2% change in the LCR, and it's not much.

Because of two successive days of falling LCR, the LCR change timer also has moved from a LONG/CASH (0) to a CASH (-1) position. This timer is recommending that all short-term long positions be closed.

GGT strength continues to fall, and is now at 0.70, down from 0.75. This is still somewhat bullish, but the trend is weakening, which is not the direction we want to move. Nevertheless, we could easily rise from here, especially in a bull market. Note too though that we could easily fall :)

Here are the individual index strength numbers:

DJ30: 0.788, rising 1d
NDX100: 0.637, falling 2d
Brazil: 0.83, falling 2d
Russia: 0.941, rising 1d
India: 0.323, falling 2d
China: 0.765, falling 2d
SP500: 0.94, rising 2d
SP400: 0.858, falling 2d
SP600: 0.834, falling 1d
Russell2k: 0.86, falling 1d

Yucky. Get your contras ready in the appropriate indexes, and play them if they break decisively above yesterday's high range level (see the weekend post for details). DO NOT USE MONDAY'S LEVELS -- do your homework.

Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions...

I'm traveling the rest of the week, so postings may be delayed each of the upcoming days.

Regards,

pgd