Wednesday, November 18, 2009

GGT Notables from Tuesday, November 17th

Sorry for the hiatus in posting.  Preparation for and the actual trip last week to Abu Dhabi has put me well behind in my routines; I'm now just beginning to catch up.

The squirrel is still spinning in the cage concerning stock updates so I can't give you exact details on the market behavior for Tuesday, at least from the GGT perspective.  What I can state though is the following in terms of observations:

1) GGT price finished MONDAY (11/16) at $19.61, only $0.09 short of the all-time high established on October 19th.  If we close above $19.70 in the near future the only way to interpret this is as long- and intermediate-term bullish.  Failure to close above this amount will move my portfolios to the short/contra side of the market.

2) GGT volume has been fairly consistent at about 1.49M shares, but has been dropping off the last few days.  Rising prices on decreasing volume gives me pause in the short-term; this could be an indicator that the bulls are tiring and that supply is drying up.

3) The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) bottomed on 11/2 at 0.226 and has been increasing (more or less) ever since that date, finishing on MONDAY's close at 0.898.  During this time the GGT price has changed from $18.17 to $19.61, or an appreciation of nearly 8%.

4) The LCR Change Timer signaled LONG on 11/3 and confirmed the move on 11/4.  During this time the GGT price has changed from $18.25 to $19.61, or an appreciation of 7.2%.  It pays to follow this timer.

5) The DJ30 strength index hit a high on MONDAY, signaling a entry into the contra side of this trade.  I am entering DXD if it moves above $30.19 on Wednesday.

6) While the indexes are indicating solid strength, I am showing that we have entered over-bought territories.  I plan to hold my long positions, but I am entering contra positions if the market weakens on the long side.  I will enter the following ETFs if they move $0.01 above yesterday's high in the range:

TWM: $28.18
SDD:  $29.70
QID: $20.63
DXD: $30.19
SDS:  $36.30
MZZ: $23.73
SMN: $8.98
SKF: $24.31
DUG: $12.28
SRS:  $8.82

Take a look at EPI, which in one of the India ETFs.  India is strong and this just signaled New Long.  It has good volume (1.4M shares) on a $21.85 price, so should be very liquid.

Obviously gold (IAU, GDX, GLD) continues to be solid in recommendation and strength.

Leave a comment below if desired.

Regards,

pgd