Thursday, March 4, 2010

Update on GGT Strengths, Hedge Positions in Contra ETFs should be Evaluated

MZZ never cleared the previous day entry point yesterday, precluding entry.  Correspondingly, I have reset the entry levels for MZZ:

  • Enter above $19.87
  • 1st target ~ $20.50 or use above 5d MA
  • TSL @ ATR(20) = $0.64
Note that the GGT strengths for each of the indexes is very high, so hedge positions with our long positions would not be unwise.  The following are all strengths on a scale of 0-1, where 1 is completely overbought and 0 is completely oversold:

DJ30:  0.62, down -4% from Tuesday's value.  This value peaked at 0.67 on Monday, which is not appreciably strong.

NDX100:  0.73, down -13% from Tues' peak of 0.85.  QID may be attractive here.

SP400:  0.91, down 9% from Tues' peak of 1.0 (all time high).  MZZ is certainly attractive.

SP500:  0.80, down 9% from Tues' peak of 0.89.  SDS may be attractive here.

SP600:  0.80, down 11% from Tues' peak of 0.9. SDD may be attractive here.

Russell 2000:  0.78, down 9% from Tues' peak of 0.86.  TWM may be attractive here.


The GGT LCR, which is the long-cash ratio value, is at 1.914 and has been climbing day-over-day since 2/24.  This gives us a long-call on stocks and says that we should be LONG in the present market.


The GGT LCR change timer, which looks at a EMA of the day-to-day change in the LCR, continues to reflect a long call.  It is presently LONG and has been since it transitioned to this state on 2/10.  Since 2/10 the GGT index is up nearly 11%, so you decide whether you should more closely watch this indicator.  Since inception the GGT index is up 81% using this timer, both on the long side as well as contra side (theoretical, but you get the idea).


Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, not me.  Do your diligence.

I return from Vegas late Friday so postings may be sporadic this week.



The corresponding strength of the entire GGT da