Friday, July 30, 2010

Short-Term LCR Timer: CASH; Elder Intermediate still LONG

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Thursday saw another drop in the GGT Price index, a slight movement down of -0.19% to $25.62 from $25.67.  Volume was average at 2.7M shares traded.  Again, rather unremarkable when taken in isolation.

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) continues in sync with price, dropping to 1.523.  This consecutive 2-day run caused the LCR Change Timer to move to CASH with the close on Thursday.  In accordance with this and the generally wild volatility in the markets I closed my UWM position yesterday for a loss.  Note that I did NOT open a position in the contras, as the majority are NOT above their 200d MA (the only ones above with significant volume right now are DGP, DRN, DTO, EUO, MVV, SAA, UGL, and URE).

Interestingly, GGT Strength moved UP slightly on Thursday, possibly signifying a local bottom.  The value of 0.597 is neither too high (overbought) or too low (oversold), as I like to see dramatic movements through 0.7 from below (aggressive long) or a plunge below 0.2 (aggressive cash).  We have neither so we are drifting in no-man's land, unable to effectively determine any form of a strong trend.

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Short-Term LCR Change Timer

As I indicated above, the LCR Change Timer moved to CASH with the close Thursday.  I have no open positions locked to this timer.

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Intermediate-Term Elder Timer

Elder's 13d Force Index continues to be positive, which is the primary gate for intermediate-term entry into positions.  The SLOPE of the 13d Force Index is positive, which is bullish.  These two indicate to me that we're going to hold our intermediate-term Elder positions.

My Elder portfolio is presently underwater by -1.2%.  BRCM's Elder 13d FI has moved negative so I will sell this with a 1% TSL (not limit).  I'm looking for stocks that meet the following criteria:
  • 13d Force Index Positive
  • 2d Force Index Negative (as indicated by Thurs close)
  • 13d Price EMA slope positive
  • 50d Price EMA slope positive
  • 13d EMA > 34d EMA (visual verification on chart)
  • Instantaneous price (now) is higher than yesterday's high by a few pennies.
  • Volume is higher than 10d MA (graduated to the time of the day)
I've covered how I do this over the last few days; here's the Relative Strength list (ACC and VEL are left to you)



















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Trading Plan for Friday

I intend to do nothing with my short-term holdings according to the ST LCR Change Timer.  None of my favorite contra positions are above their 200d MA, precluding entry.

I intend to add to my Elder intermediate-term holdings if they show strength, as well as additional candidates from the list above (as well as the velocity and acceleration lists).

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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions.  Please do your diligence.

Regards,

pgd