Monday, October 11, 2010

Possible Transition to LONG on short-term timer;

.
Thank you to everybody who came to the meeting this past Saturday.  The meeting presentation has been posted to the TSFI forum, and will be posted to the GGT forum this morning.

I'm traveling this week, first to Spokane, WA Mon-Wed and then to Muskegon, MI on Wed-Fri.  I return to NoVA late Friday night, and detailed blogging may be tough.

==============

Our familiar dashboard:


As with all my images, right-click on it to open in a new tab or window.

Friday was a banner day with the markets.  The GGT price index moved upward 1.82% to $25.78 on volume that was only -2% less than the 50d MA of volume.  Rising prices on normal volume is bullish.

Our internal barometer of the market, the GGT Long-Cash Ratio (LCR), moved up nicely too from 2.995 to 3.466, a change of +16%.  Internally, stocks appreciated nicely in terms of price and volume.  This too is bullish.

The GGT strength index, which is scaled between 0 and 1, marched upward from 0.741 to 0.881.  This means that the database of stocks improved in price, volume, AND rate of change compared to historical levels.  This is bullish, but at this level, it is also lofty.

From a pricing and LCR point of view, the markets had a good day, are certainly up in price, but are a bit overbought.  We must be selective in our entry to long positions.

===========================

Short-Term LCR Change Timer

Because the markets moved upward on Friday, the GGT short-term LCR change timer transitioned from CASH (-1) to CASH-LONG (0).  This is telling us to get your entry list ready.

If the markets are up today as far as the ADV/DEC line at http://www.finviz.com/ is concerned, this timer will transition to LONG with the close.  To anticipate this, it could be prudent to enter VTI, UWM, QLD, etc. between 3:30 and 4:00 p.m. EDT if we have a solid advance as determined by the ADV line.  Conversely, if this is not the case, then remain in cash.

I will attempt to publish my moves if practical.

==========================

Intermediate-Term Elder Force Index Timer

The Elder 13d EMA on the Force Index -- FI(13) -- is positive by a significant amount, telling us that we can consider long positions (column 12).  Furthermore, the 13d slope and 34d slope on the price of stocks contained in the GGT universe (columns 14 and 15) are also both pointing upward, telling us that it is safe to move into long positions (column 16).

My list of possible entry candidates today is:

JASO
PZG
HF
PALL
ACGY
AZPN
STD
CHINA
CTRN
NTWK
VTR
OKS
LGCY
FLO
RGNC
JMBA
MYN
DCT
BND
BSV
NBG
CTRN
PLXT
APA
COG
CNX
DVN
HP
MRO
BTU
SUN
AES
AEE
CMS
DTE

I plan to use my standard requirements of price and volume to enter.

With respect to my present holdings, here's the scorecard:

EWO, up +6.51%
EWH, +5.92%
BKF, +5.03%
IDCC, +4.56
PID, +3.49%
FXI, +3.47%
GXC, +2.55%
XLB, +0.11%
IAU, -0.03%
XME, -0.13%
KOL, -0.58%
IGE, -0.59%
FDO, -0.87%
GMO, -4.16%

According to Wikinvest, which tracks my trades at Fidelity, here is my 1 month performance:



Note that I am presently 48% in cash.

=====================

Trading Plan for Monday

With respect to the short-term timer, I intend to enter the standard VTI, UWM, QLD positions if they are up by 3:30-ish and if the ADV/DEC line at http://www.finviz.com/ is up.

One of my holdings, IDCC, is problematic:



The MACD is rolling over, the 13d slope has crossed the 34d slope from above, and all week we've failed to make new highs.  I will sell this position with a 1% TSL on Monday.

With respect to the Elder Intermediate Timer, I'll enter the positions above if they meet my price and volume criteria.

=====================

Remember, you are responsible for your trading decisions, not me.  Please take ownership for your work.

Regards,

pgd