Sunday, November 18, 2012

November 16 Weekend Update

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I'm decisively bearish in my stance in the markets at the present time.  I'm holding the following assets in multiple accounts:


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Overall, I'm up 3.4% in one account and 13.4% in another for this latest transition to a short-term bearish market.  The 10% difference is that I use the former account for other signals too and they are all in cash, so I have less available to invest in GGT ETF signals.

I have a 1% trailing stop loss (TSL), good til canceled (GTC) on DGL, which fired to move to cash with the market close on Thursday night, November 15th.  Everything else is still indicated long, despite the apparently strong day within the markets this past Friday (more on that below).

The best performer is QID, the -2x inverse NASDAQ-100 (when the NAS falls -1% the QID goes up +2%), and it is up +9% since entry.  Note that over the past year that GGT's timing of QID has provided a 103.7% advantage over buy and hold and perfect execution and fills of prices over the past year has resulted in 32.4% gain.  I've not achieved this because I've not followed every signal but I'm participating in at least 9% of that 32% gain at the present time.

TMF, which is a +3x 30-year bond fund, is up next at +7% since my entry.  GGT's advantage over the past year is 29.4% with a total 1-year gain of 41.4%, again with perfect execution.

SKF, which is the -2x on the financial XLF spyder, has a GGT advantage of 128.1% and a 17.4% over the past year.  I'm participating in 6% of that gain right now.

SOXS, which is the -3x on the semiconductor ETF SMH, is a relatively new entry and I'm up +4%.  GGT isn't as "in tune" with this one, with only a 13.3% gain over the past year (database average for all ETFs is 17.5%, for all CONTRA/SHORT ETFs is 23.2%), but I took the signal and I have a break-even stop loss set so I'm not going to lose any money here.

UNG, which is the +1 ETF on natural gas, is up +3% since my buy Friday morning.  It has a GGT system advantage of 29.4% and a performance over the last year of 41.4%, so I'm optimistic of this one.  If it closes below the 20d MA I'll sell, for reasons you can see in the figure below.


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Effective volume (EV), which you can learn more about at http://www.effectivevolume.com, is holding steady for UNG, which is why I feel somewhat optimistic about it.  Despite the major selling spike on 11/15 large players have slowly been moving back in, and correspondingly, there has been little change from an institutional point of view compared to 11/13.  Longer-term EV, which is on the lower part of the graph, shows that over the past 40 trading days that UNG has been net-accumulated, but the upper graph on UNG shows that over the past 8 days the large players have been selling more than buying.  This is the only fly in the ointment, and hence, why I have an end-of-day stop loss order at the 20d MA (if time is > 3:59 pm EDT and price is below real-time 20d MA then close position).

All my other positions are at or less than 1% in gain since entry, despite the past behavior / performance of GGT.  Not all signals will be home runs with respect to GGT, not all signals will surpass past performance, but on average, I think I'm doing okay with this system.

My plan is to continue to watch the daily signals, exit as necessary, and if I see any sustained bull trend developing in the broader markets (I don't except that we're oversold at the present time), I'll start picking up the GGT ETFs that move long on the bullish side in concert with macro signals turning positive.  I don't expect this during the next week (short due to Thanksgiving), but "black Friday" has been a trigger in the past and it may be again -- we'll simply see.

None of the ETFs above should be chased.  Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, I am not, and you must do your own diligence in the markets.

Regards,

pgd