Tuesday, December 16, 2014

All Timers Signal Cash - Dec 16 Close

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With the close of markets today (Dec 16) all my timers -- short, medium, and long-term, are now indicating cash.

I'm liquidating all remaining positions with a 1% TSL, GTC.

Buy Strength:


Buy Strength, as shown above, is very, very negative and as you can see, is entering a historic period of being oversold.  It could rocket upwards quickly, or it could linger in this area longer.  Buy Strength is an internal indicator that I do not discuss much as it's derived from a number of parameters unique to the GGT system of ranking stocks.  There is no equivalent metric on the "outside world" so I don't talk about it much (if at all).  Nevertheless, I watch it, and I watch it daily.  Right now it's telling me we could be oversold -- certainly more chance of going upwards than going drastically downward from here.

Remember though - we could linger and churn.

Cumulative Tick:


No matter how you look at it, there is nothing in the CT chart above that is positive.  Nothing.  I've been saying this for some time, so if this blog entry surprises you, then you've not been paying attention.

LCR Slope Table


The LCR is below 1.0, meaning out of 3000+ stocks in the database, we have more that are ranked as CASH than LONG.  This is a good reset for the next leg up.

The slopes of all measured time frames (left side) are negative.  They've been negative for some time, and this means you should not be buying stocks.  Period.  No argument.  We could go lower from here.

The right side of the table is the rate of change of the slopes.  We're seeing some abatement on the shortest of time frames, so PERHAPS (and only perhaps) we're approaching a turning point.  It won't be Wednesday, so Thursday would be the earliest to consider.

I'm looking for the 2d, 3d, and 5d slopes on the left to turn positive before I buy.

Strategy

Out of the market.  No telling how long this will last -- 1 day, 2 days, or 2 weeks.  Cheap oil this fast isn't good, and until that clears, we're going to put pressure on equities.  From my chair, best to do this from the sidelines.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd