Friday, January 23, 2015

New Long Signal for All Timers, 1-22-2015

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Summary:  The strong action on 1/22/2015 has turned all timers long -- short-term, medium-term, and long-term.  Targeting 100% equity investment.

Timers:

Short-term timer:  LONG
Intermediate-term timer:  NEW LONG
Long-term timer:  NEW LONG

Long-Cash Ratio:  0.774, jumped 25% on Thursday, a very strong day.  The 2d, 3d, 5d, 8d, and 13d slopes of the LCR are all pointing upward, with the 8d and 13d newly positive.  This is a buy signal.


The table above indicates that again, we dipped a shallow dip over the last trading month and now conditions are favorable for entry into the markets.

LCR Slopes:


Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

The Long-Cash Ratio jumped +25% on Thursday, which is a significant move.  In ranking it is the 157th strongest move since 2008.  Note that the LCR slopes for the 2d, 3d, 5d had been positive, and now the 8d and 13d turning is to be considered a follow-through.

This is my trigger to get back in the markets.

Cumulative Tick:

There was strong buying on Thursday on the NYSE:



Click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

With the close on Wednesday, the cumulative tick just barely crossed the longest moving average from below, indicating a positive tone to the markets.  As you can see to the right of the "+" symbol, yesterday was strong and now all the slopes are upward.

This is a necessary condition for me to purchase stocks.  This is a (temporary?) rising market.

Strategy:

The obvious question is "which stocks should be considered?

The GGT Stock file, located in the shared Dropbox folder for subscribers, has the latest updates.  Here are the stocks that are quality stocks that are rated "Long":


To save you the time of typing the list, here it is:

AGIO
AMBA
BFR
CARB
CAVM
CORE
DXCM
EVLV
FPRX
HDB
HNI
HPP
ICLR
JNS
LTS
LXFT
PACB
PEB
PLKI
PPC
RCL
SAVE
SMCI
SWKS
TASR
UA
UAL
UVE
VIPS
ZUMZ

If any of these stocks take out yesterday's high plus 0.1% I'm seriously considering making a purchase.

From a momentum / Effective Volume point of view (see www.effectivevolume.com), these are quality stocks that are worthy of entry:

BFR
CORE
VIPS
AAPL *
HDB
SKX *
EVLV
HPP
LXFT
PEB
UEIC *
ZUMZ
SAVE
UA

Note that any stock listed above with a " * " means that it is not a GGT long but is a serious candidate.  Also note that AAPL reports earnings in 4 days and there is a significant movement into the stock occurring.

These stocks are beaten down but again, have great fundamentals.  Unfortunately, they are not rated GGT "Long" except for RENT, which has been moving upward for the past 2 days and is a relatively new entry to my list (it is rated "Affirmed Long").  All the others are in a CASH status but are improving rapidly.  They also are quite strong in terms of EV.

LEAF
RENT
SAIA
EPAM

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Any stock that breaks out today from the lists above and that are GGT "Long" of some sort will most likely be purchased.

I typically purchase if the price goes over 0.1% of the previous day's high.  I also like to see volume above the 10-day volume of the greatest drop in price, e.g., the buying today is stronger than the selling over the past 10 days.

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As always, these are not recommendations.  You are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

Paul