Update for Wednesday, April 4th - Another Short-Term Whipsaw

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I do not post here daily; I post daily at www.effectivevolume.com.  I post here as time allows.

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With the close of markets on Tuesday, April 3rd, the short-term LCR timer has transitioned to CASH. 

Under the rules of the re-entry timer, the index position entered into yesterday will be closed at the open. The Elder intermediate-termed timer and the 13d / 65d long-term timer are still long, so positions that were entered into early in January or the middle of March, which have gains, should continue to be held.

As with all my images on this blog, right-click to open in a new tab or window.


While any system that whipsaws is frustrating, you can see that the secondary re-entry system manages the trades quite well (as long as you execute flawlessly), with the worse trade ever recorded at -5.46%, the average loss at -1.59%, and with a significant positive edge (ME = 0.84, want > 0, and PRR = 1.5, want greater than 1.0 at a minimum).

I'm not as anxious to sell, and backtesting that I have conducted shows that a 1% trailing stop loss (TSL) placed on the trade 5 minutes after the market opens typically works in your favor (e.g., you get a higher price on exit than the opening). I intend to place the TSL and let it ride from there.

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The Price Slope Model is wavering on turning bearish, but simply has 1 day of bearishness developing on a good bullish base:

Although the 2d and 3d slopes turning negative is undesired, the weakness we see is characteristic of being within a range.

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The LCR Slope Model has resumed the bearish stance it has had for a while and tells us that more stocks are moving below their historical, optimized performance levels and that we should not be buying stocks today:

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I'll be away from my desk all day today until near the close.

Regards,

pgd

Update for Monday, April 2nd - Update on Timer Systems

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Summary

Overall, the long term trend is up but the intermediate trend is under pressure to move to cash, and the short term trend is in cash. The Long-Cash Ratio continues to contract, meaning that day-over-day, more stocks are moving to a recommendation of CASH than in the other direction, so moving long at this time would be swimming up stream. My personal view is that positions entered into in early January and around the middle of March should continued to be held if they have profits, but I will prune any underperformers and move to cash for those that are underwater. To accomplish this I have set a 1% trailing stop loss on the underwater positions and if they move up, great -- if they drop, I'm out.

Here are the details:

The price slope model (PSM) has been increasing in bearishness over the past few days:

As with all my images on this site, right-click on the picture to open in a new tab or window at the original size.


Price moved up a slight amount (+0.13%) on volume that was -3% below the 50d MA on Friday, which is unremarkable.

The slope of the 2d price EMA moved positive on Friday, but overall, you can see that behavior for the week was net down. While there is a positive expectation for re-entry on Monday on the long side under these price conditions (2d positive, 3d - 8d negative, 13d - 65d positive), the chances of these trades working out in a historical sense are only between 36% and 44%. The following chart shows the historical results compared to entry when the entire price slope matrix is negative, and the 2d transitions positive (the highest possible chance of the trade working):

It's clear that relative to coming out of a complete oversold condition that our present conditions are not any where near ideal. From the table you can see that you should be buying when:

• All of the price slopes are negative and the 2d transitions positive (reference point)
• The 2d is already positive and the 3d transitions positive (88% success relative to 2d transition)
• The 2d is already positive and the 5d transitions positive (55% success relative to 2d transition)

Furthermore, the table suggests that re-entry on pullbacks can be incredibly powerful if conducted early in the recovery. Hence,

• If 3d already has a positive slope, and 2d transitions from negative to positive (due to a short-term pullback), and the rest of the EMA slopes are negative, then there is a 91% chance of success.
• If the 5d already has a positive slope, and 2d transitions from negative to positive, and the rest of the EMA slopes are still negative, then there is a 61% chance of success of the entry.

The table confirms what most of us already know -- participation early in a new move is key if we want the highest probability of gains. As the move matures the chances for gain decrease.

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The Long-Cash Ratio slope model continues to contract, with the LCR dropping another 1% on Friday despite the weak move up in price:

All of the LCR slopes are negative, although we did see some strength in the LCR acceleration on Friday. Bottom line, there is no compelling reason to move long when the database is showing us that stocks are falling below their historical optimized performance thresholds.

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I've refined the longer-term timer and have moved the 5d / 65d EMA crossings to a 13d / 65d set of crossings. Additionally, when I do this and combine secondary entries to the Elder Intermediate Timer Exits, the historical performance is outstanding and represents the best model that I've been able to develop to date.

Here's the performance table:

Across the top are the different timer conditions that I've chosen to display. Along the left are the descriptions on the various metrics I use. Let me quickly explain these.

Cumulative Performance is since 11/25/08, which is when the GGT database was expanded to over 3000 stocks. The data in the database is "stable", and the methods used to calculate the GGT optimized levels have not changed since this time (interpretation has, but methods of calculation have not).
Compounded Rate of Return is exactly what you think it is.
Market Exposure may be new to some of you. Timer systems have the ability to sit in cash, so the lower the value, the less you are exposed to the market. In general, we want this number to be lower, not higher. If we were in the market 100% of the time (buy and hold), we would see a 100% here.
Efficiency is a related to market exposure. It is the amount of Cumulative Performance divided by the Market Exposure. Large Efficiency values indicate higher gains with lower market exposure, which means lower overall risk.
Worse Trade, Best Trade, Average Trade, Median Trade, Stdev, etc. are all self explanatory.
Mathematical Expectation (ME) is the "edge" of the system. We want this to be positive. The more positive, the better. Note that ME has a "flaw" of sorts -- it does not look at consistency of trades.
Pessimistic Return Ratio (PRR) counters the "flaw" in ME and incorporates the consistency of trades. The more trades, the better PRR will indicate your "edge". We want PRR to be above 1.5, and values above 2.0 are considered very good.

I've circled two columns. The right column is the system which my focus will be upon going forward, and the left circled column will also be the focus of my efforts in the event I want to "jump into" the market mid stream (in the event I miss the initial entry for whatever reason).

The timer rules for initial entry are explicitly this:

Enter the markets on a new signal:

1. if the 13d price EMA crosses the 65d price EMA from below AND
2. the Elder Intermediate termed timer is NOT in CASH.

Re-enter the markets if stopped out or on a failsafe condition:

1. if the LCR has been above it's 4d SMA for two days (this is my short-term timer system) AND
2. the Elder Intermediate termed timer is NOT in CASH AND
3. the long-term timer is already long.

Re-enter the markets if stopped out or on a failsafe condition:

1. if the 5d LCR transitions from negative to positive slope AND
2. the Elder Intermediate termed timer is NOT in CASH AND
3. the long-term timer is already long.

Exit rules are simple: Exit all positions if the Elder intermediate-termed timer transitions to CASH.

The entry/exit dates for the system are as follows:

Additionally, there are times when there is an edge to adding positions to the system. I'm keeping track of those dates, and the results were in the timer table above in the "Secondary Entry + Entry Performance" column. This too has a significant positive expectation and is a very efficient system for managing secondary entries. Here are the dates and status of the system for secondary entries:

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Overall, my plan for Monday is unchanged. I see no compelling reason to enter positions at this time, and as far as selling is concerned, positions entered recently that are weak will be sold with a 1% trailing stop loss in place.  I do have hedging positions on in all accounts and plan to add to those positions if a reversal in the long markets is confirmed.

Regards,

pgd

Update for Thursday, March 29th - Short Term Timer Moves to Cash, Intermediate and Long-Term Still LONG

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With the close of markets on Wednesday, March 28th, my short-term timer, which is based upon the 4d simple moving average (SMA or MA) of the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR), has transitioned to cash. Long equities (which are not contra ETFs) which were purchased since 3/26 will be closed, as the probability of their success from here is considerably lower. The GGT index performance since the last signal (3/26) is poor at -1.22% and is indicative of a weak market, but I do note that it is less than the average losing trade (count = 30 since 1/2/09) which is -1.79%. A minor flesh wound.

In my opinion (worth what you pay for it) any long equities bought since 3/13 are also candidates for closure if they are showing any form of weakness.

Here is the timer summary:

As you can see, the Elder intermediate-termed timer and the simple 5d / 65d timer are still long. The Elder timer is within a hair of triggering to Mixed conditions (a major warning) or Cash (an event marker) depending on today's action, but of course, stay in the profitable trades if you are holding longer than a few days. The 3/9 or 3/12 long signal from the Elder timer was the last transition (depending upon which signal you follow), so play accordingly.

The 1/5/12 long move in the 5d / 65d timer is still the most profitable. If you placed orders around this signal and they are profitable, this signal is telling you to continue to hold your longs. 

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The LCR model is completely bearish across the board from the 2d EMA to the 65d EMA. The LCR dropped -11% on Wednesday, which is slightly below the average of -15%. This is not a panic-selling market. We are accelerating downward in the LCR on a day-over-day stance, which is simply telling me that this is not a time to move long in equities.

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As you might imagine, the price-slope model is becoming more bearish, but is still holding on to some bullishness on the 13d and longer time frames. This is why it could be prudent to hold stocks on the long side in accordance with the 5d / 65d and/or the Elder timers.

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I intend to sit on the sidelines today. Of my holdings, I am net short, but realize that I have almost 60% of my holdings in cash at the present time, so if we continue upward from here the damage is certainly recoverable. We've not made much progress in the last week and when this occurs, the sidelines are a good mental spot for me.

Regards,

pgd

Update for Friday, March 23rd -- Timers Showing Increased Bearishness, but ...

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I am traveling today to the HGSI seminar in Palos Verdes, CA and thus, my blogging this weekend will be as time permits. Dropbox files will be updated for today and by the open Monday.  You can find my daily blogs at the Effective Volume site at http://www.effectivevolume.com, in the GGT forum.

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A number of my indicators continue to show weakness -- as I said yesterday, it's impossible to know if this is a buying opportunity or the start of a change in market climate. Despite the following, the long-term trend is still upward.

The weakest of my indicators is the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) slope model, which has transitioned completely negative:

As with all my images, right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

The simple take away here is that with all of the LCR slopes negative, including the 2d EMA slope, and with all of the LCR slopes of the EMA slopes negative, buying stocks on the long side should be suspended.

The LCR fell -13% on Thursday (far left of the table image), and in terms of acceleration downward, we've had three continuous days of day-over-day decreases in momentum (each day-over-day change is bigger than the day before). 

A short-term pullback will be characterized by the far right of the table view moving positive (green). These values represent the slope of the slope, and they lead any momentum change.

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Because of the across-the-board bearishness in the LCR, the Price-Slope-LCR Trend timer, which is a prototype and still under development, transitioned to full cash:

This timer uses the GGT price trend (now down compared to 1 week ago), the GGT 65d slope trend (now down compared to 1 week ago), and the LCR trend (down) to determine buy, sell, short, and cover signals. As you can see, this timer has issued a sell signal.

Because we can't invest in the GGT index outright, I've included data which shows what the impact is using the SPY, QQQ, and IWM. This last signal, which issued a "BUY" on 3/13, resulted in gains for the Q's but losses for everything else. Nevertheless, the model has historical validity, so I will continue to develop the rules.

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The GGT Price Slope Model is also showing increased bearishness, but note, it is still quite bullish on the longer time frames:

The GGT price index fell -0.91% on volume that was -8% below the 50d MA. Of significance here is that the Database Strength indicator has fallen just below parity, so half the database is in an up trend and half is in a down trend. 

The 2d - 13d slopes of prices are negative. If this continues we will hurt on the long side. The right side of the table -- the price slopes of the slopes -- are fully negative and indicate that the last 3 days have not been good to us on the long side. Furthermore, the far right of the table above shows that we are accelerating downward in day-over-day price decreases, as a whole, and this is also a warning sign. We'll have to see if the trend continues. 

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Because the 13d price slope is now negative, the Elder timer is under pressure:

As you can see, we're not negative by much, but it is there.

The "Mixed" state in the Elder Signal arises because the calculation methods -- one being a simple moving average (SMA) and the other being an exponential moving average (EMA) -- do not match. The EMA is faster, and it is negative, causing the two to give different signs (one positive - SMA, one negative - EMA). In a trending market these always resolve themselves within a week or so, but when we get mixed signals it clearly is a wake up call to watch for market reversals over the intermediate term.

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Correspondingly, the timers are now flashing caution on the long side:

My counsel is that if you took the 12/20 or 1/3 signals to move long, then I would stay the course, as the 5d / 65d timer has been long since this time frame, and from a pure GGT index point of view, you're up over 10% since that time and can take a small pullback.

Conversely, if you got in after these signal dates, then gains are less and any gains at this point could be fragile. This is the boat that I am in and I'll take my long positions off the table which are underwater and will set tight stops on those that are above the waterline.

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As a final comment on "my crystal ball is as good as yours", the following chart is interesting to me:

The chart is generated from Pascal's DIVA file at www.effectivevolume.com, which lists all positive and negative divergences that are developing between effective volume and price. The chart shows the net of these values in addition to the GGT price index. 

It's clear to me that as of the close of markets yesterday there was net buying on decreasing prices. Taken in isolation, this points to higher markets and a bias to the long side. This is my interpretation, not Pascal's, and this is work in progress. Nevertheless, we're not seeing huge selling at this point (as of yesterday), so the "do nothing" solution if you are long is attractive. Additionally, while there has been a decrease in Pascal's money flow relative to the last few days, the net values are still somewhat positive, which I also take as net bullish:

Time will tell.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not. Please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Update for Thursday, March 22nd (belated) -- Short Term Timer Moved to CASH

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With the close of markets on March 21st, the GGT 4d LCR timer has transitioned to CASH:

This timer is the shortest of timers in my arsenal, and as you can see, it fires quickly. This is a long-only timer -- contra trends are not signaled using this method. 

This last signal, which was from 3/13/2012 to the close last evening, was -0.13% if using the GGT index (0% if using the SPY, +1.2% if using the QQQ, and -0.16% if using IWM). Compare this to a historical average of +3.75% average wins and -1.81% average losses per trade.

Cumulative performance since 11/25/2008 is 73.3% or 18.1% compounded. The rest of the stats for this timer are below:

These numbers are slightly different than what I've posted in the past and reflect my best estimates of past behavior with this signal as of my latest calculations and rules. 

The timer is constructed from the performance of the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR), which is unique to the GGT universe. If the 4d Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crossed from above by the LCR, we have a sell signal such as today. The signals since the beginning of 2011 are shown below:

On a short-term basis the timer is good at getting you into the markets, but because of the short MA duration, does pull you out too soon if the trend continues. Shorter-termed timers also whipsaw, and if you get frustrated by this, you need to lengthen your timer duration (e.g., this isn't the timer for you).

When this timer fires to CASH it is a wakeup call that either:

1) a buying opportunity for any pullback is developing
2) a change in overall trend (short, intermediate, long) could develop.

Your crystal ball is as good as mine at predicting which one of these cases is actually in the works. Pascal's Real-Time Money Flow gives us some insight -- here is the chart over the last 5 days:

Overall, we've returned to the levels of 5 days ago, and since the sell-off mid morning this morning, we've stabilized and money flow is balanced. Unless we see a major influx of money into the markets in the remaining time today, I do not think the 4d signal will whipsaw.

I will not enter a position under this timer until the 4d LCR average is crossed from below.

Remember, you are responsible for your own investing/trading decisions, and I am not. Please take ownership for your individual actions.

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Regards,

pgd

Update for Friday, March 9th

Yesterday at the EV site (www.effectivevolume.com) I showed a chart from EdgeRater of Ian Woodward's %B * BW for the US Markets. I like continuity so here's the updated chart:

The obvious visual queue is that this sell off may be "all there is" and it's time to go long again. Well, history isn't as clean cut as you may like to infer:

This is the same application of the template back into the Sept/Oct 2011 time frame. Note that we kept high on the NASDAQ but the other markets flashed negative for a few days, we recovered with a terrific day on 9/27, only to retest bottoms a few days later. 

I intend to let the market dictate my actions but be aware, dropping again would not be unprecedented.

There are other events in the past that behave just like the above, so while it may be prudent to put some long positions on, I would not do full positions. Note that GGT is indicating to remain in CASH or on the short side until a clear signal is derived.

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The GGT price slope model has resumed a bullish stance with all of the slopes and all of the slopes of the slopes positive for the price series. We put prices in the bank and nothing else, so we have resumed our uptrend on multiple time frames. Here is the price slope graph:

Note that we've achieved higher levels of short-term price slopes relative to the past two weeks -- I'm looking for continued behavior of higher highs and higher lows with respect to the price slopes as a confirmation that the short-term trend is intact. If you're holding longer-termed holdings with gains I would continue to hold them.

The Long-Cash Ratio had it's first up day in 9 trading days, which isn't a record but it's enough to be notable. While the gain was only +6%, we're near the balance in the database where the number of LONG recommended stocks is nearly par with those rated CASH. A snapshot in time, but historically, this could easily set the stage for a move up from here, as there is plenty of fuel to move higher now.

Of interest to you should be the solid 2 days of the LCR slopes of the slopes all being positive. This has caused the significant drop in the LCR to reverse and start moving upward, which is bullish. The Slopes of the Slopes precede any positive action on the LCR slopes (make sure you understand why), so we are setting up with the proper conditions to move long in the market.

Here are the slopes of the LCR:

My timers are unchanged. The short-term timer is in cash, the intermediate-termed timer is in cash, and the long term timer is long. I'm waiting for the LCR 2d, 3d, and 5d slopes to transition positive before I re-enter the markets on the long side with any passion.

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As an aside, I watch the action of the 5d and 8d LCRs, as this has indicated (in previous times) what "could be". Of course your crystal ball is as good as mine. Take a gander at the following chart and I'd be interested in your thoughts -- the chart seems to portend some further weakness for a short duration, then perhaps it's off to the races again. You decide.

You can see where we are at with the orange horizontal line; you can also see that during periods of strong bull markets we're nearly an area where the probability of reversal increases.

Regards,

pgd

GGT Timer Systems

The blog is not on hiatus; it can be found (almost) daily at www.effectivevolume.com, in the "GGT" forum.  You'll need to register, but access to all of the blogs is free.

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GGT Timer Rules

I've been working with my colleague Bob Wilson in quantifying various aspects of GGT.  As many of you are aware, GGT employs three timer systems:

• Short-term:  uses a simple 4-day moving average to cross the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) value, which is calculated daily.  Buy when the 4d crosses the LCR from below, and sell when the 4d crosses the LCR from above.  You cannot calculate the LCR but I can, and either Bob or I do it every day and post the results at my GGT forum @ Effective Volume.
• Intermediate-term:  based on Dr. Alexander Elder's Force Index (FI) methods, this timer uses the slopes of the 13d and 34d EMA of the GGT prices, in addition to the sign (+ or -) on the 13d Force Index.  Buy when the FI(13) is turning positive AND the slopes of the 13 and 34d GGT prices are (turning) positive; 
• Long-term:  a basic, keep-you-out-of-trouble timer based upon the 5d and 65d crossing of moving averages.  Buy when the 5d crosses above the 65d from below, and sell when the 5d crosses the 65d from above.  It's that simple.  Not optimal, but quite simple.

Like all timers, each of these has their benefits and detractors.  Benefits are getting you into the market, as well as out, as the markets dictate.  Detractors are simply that they lag, and they may whipsaw from time to time, and more importantly, they do not always work.

Here's the current status of the timer system:

As with all my images, right-click on the figure to open in a new tab or window.

Shown above is the last 2.5 months of signals.  The short-term timer is on the left, the intermediate-termed timer is in the middle, and the longer-termed timer is on the right.

You can clearly see that the short-term timer moved to cash on 2/9, forcing a sell at the open or early on 2/10.  The intermediate and longer -termed timers have remained long, so it's important to choose what your period of comfort is.  Typically, the longer your timer, the less worried about intra-signal drawdown you are.

Looking back over time, you can see the impact of the different time frames on the different timers.  You can also see the impact of the shorter time frames and the concepts of whipsaw -- look closely at 12/8.

There are benefits to having multiple timers.  The end result is that you often have equities in play, satisfying some deep urge to play the markets at times when it probably is more prudent to be on the sidelines.  As long as you entered at the correct time, leaving positions on, based on the time frame that you are focused upon, is most likely the smart approach.

Market Entry

For all my systems, the key entry is when the 5d slope of the LCR turns positive, and the 2d and 3d are either 1) already positive, or 2) are turning positive on the day that the 5d turns positive.

Where does this (seemingly) obscure entry rule come from?  Here's the results of some testing that I did concerning the best time to enter the markets:

It will take you a bit of time to understand how to apply this table.

Let's say that the markets have been in a tail spin, heading south.  Everything (LCR slopes) is negative.  Let's further say that the markets stabilize for a couple of days, turning the slope of the 2d EMA of the LCR  positive.  Since 2009 if you would have entered the market the next day near the open and sold at the close of that day (unrealistic), you would have turned $1 into $1.56.

If you wait until both the 2d and 3d slopes turn positive you would be at $1.67.

Finally, if you wait until the 2d, 3d, and 5d slopes turn positive you would have turned that $1 entry into $1.86.

So, where are we today?

Here's the LCR slope table:

There's other things on this table -- simply look at the columns that say "Slopes of LCR EMAs".

As you can see above, all of the slopes through the 55d slope are negative (red), and the 65d is super close to moving negative.

In the context of the table, which I'll annotate below, we have a situation where ONLY the 65d is positive:

IF, and this is a big if, the 2d moves long on Monday 2/27, then historically, with ONLY the 65d being long, we've only gained 12% on that entry (early Tuesday, 2/28) over the past 3+ years.  If the 2d and 3d both turn, but the 65d is the only other long, then we increase that value up to 17% edge.  You see where I'm going with this.  Playing late stage signals, while certainly profitable, is not nearly as profitable as being early in the game.

Given the present scenario, I have no expectation of having the same edge as the beginning of a cycle.  This goes to reason -- at the beginning of a cycle the markets are typically oversold, and at the end, when ONLY the 65d is still green (positive), the markets are overbought.  

So, how does TIMER entry work?

IN ALL CASES, we need to have the slopes of the 2d, 3d, and 5d EMAs all positive at the end of the day, whether simultaneously or sequentially (it doesn't matter):

• If concentrating on  the short-term timer, then buy at or near the open of the market on the following day.
• If concentrating on the intermediate-termed timer, then review the status of the intermediate-term timer.  If LONG or MIXED, then buy at or near the open of the market the following day.  If in CASH, you are "enabled", but you must WAIT until the intermediate-termed timer moves to a LONG or MIXED state before entry.
• If concentrating on the long-term timer, then review the status of the long-term timer.  If LONG, then buy at or near the open of the market the following day.  If in CASH, you are "enabled", but you must WAIT until the long-termed timer moves to a LONG  state before entry.

Refer to the timer summary above, specifically on 12/21.

On 12/21 the short-term timer fired long.  You would have placed orders for positions early the morning of 12/22 under a "short-term" strategy.  You also could have placed orders for positions early the morning of 12/22 under the "intermediate-term", because of the "Mixed" status of the Elder timer.

On 12/27 the long-term timer moved long.  You would buy your anchor positions early the morning of 12/28 under this timer.

On 12/30 the intermediate-termed timer moved to CASH.  You would have sold early the morning of 1/3.

On 1/3 the intermediate-termed timer whipsawed back to LONG.  You would have BOUGHT early the morning of 1/4.

On 1/30 the short-term timer moved to CASH.  You would sell your short-term holdings early the morning of 1/31.  If investing in an index such as GGT (looks like the ETF "VTI"), you would have a gain of nearly +6% for the signal.  You would continue to hold your intermediate and long-term positions.

On 2/1 the short-term timer moved LONG -- another whipsaw.  You would enter early the morning of 2/2.

On 2/9 the short-term timer moved to CASH.  You would sell your short-term positions the morning of 2/10 for a gain of around 2.1%.  You would continue to hold your intermediate and long-term positions.

As of this writing the short-term timer is in CASH, effectively blocking entry to the markets.  I'm waiting for the 2d, 3d, and 5d EMA slopes to move positive.

Timer Performance

With the rules established, what is the performance of the system since 1/1/2009?  Here's an equity chart, applied to the GGT index, which again, looks like the ETF "VTI" from Vanguard:

It should be evident what you are looking at here.  The yellow highlighted area shows last year's period where trend following simply sucked -- there is no other way to describe it.  Using trend following methods the markets did not work last year, and in general, the 5d/65d timer suffered the most.

Overall though, you can see that these timer methods all produce very good gains and keep you in the markets when you need to be in the markets, which is important.  Here are the statistics for each timer:

As you can see, and as you saw from the equity graph, the timers all manage the down side adequately.  The 5d / 65d method has more losers than winners (6 compared to 3), but the winners are stellar compared to the amount lost, on average (30.23% vs. -4.16%).

From a cumulative performance perspective, the Elder FI timer has the best overall stats to date.  Next in line is the 4d LCR, followed by the 5d / 65d timer.

Summary

I've presented a methodology to use the GGT system timers to positively impact your portfolio.  Purchases were made into the GGT index as the example benchmark -- investing in stocks with a beta higher than the Vanguard Total Index (VTI) would obviously change your individual performance.  Over the past 3 years waiting until the 2d, 3d, and 5d EMA slopes of the LCR moved positive had a significant impact on entry edge.  Depending upon your risk tolerance, and depending upon your time frame, three timers are available (for free!) that work well overall in trending markets.

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Regards,

pgd