Thursday, June 3, 2010

Some bullish indications, but 1 day does not make a bull...

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Status:

LCR Change Timer:  Continues to remain Long-Cash, with a bias to long.  I did not buy/ sell any positions yesterday.
GGT Price EMAs are all in a downtrend (bearish)
GGT Price is trading below all pricing EMAs, except the 13d EMA.  I still consider this overall bearish
GGT Price ROCs are mixed.  The 13d EMA on the Price ROC is positive (bullish), which means we have an upward trend to price over the last 13d, but all others are negative (bearish)
Slope of 65d EMA of GGT Price is negative (bearish) but has reversed to point UPWARD (bullish)
GGT Volume was -12% below the 50d MA on Tuesday, but this is within a normal distribution (neutral).  We are seeing less participation in the market, as the "below volume" trend is becoming more prevalent.
Elder's 13d Force Index on the GGT Price continues negative (bearish) but is moving more positive (bullish).  Note that weaker volume on strong price movement days is not very positive for a bull.  We need strong volume and strong price movement.
GGT Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) jumped from 0.195 to 0.227.  This is a very oversold reading, and any positive movement will be correlated to strength in the market.  We want this number to get larger.
GGT LCR EMAs are all inverted (13 < 21 < 34 < 55) and are all trending downward (bearish)
GGT Strength Index jumped to 0.5 from 0.17, and is now in no-man's land.  This indicator is relatively useless at this point, because it states that we have equal probabilities of moving upward as well as moving downward.  This is indicative of a trending (horizontal) market.
GGT LCR ROCs are negative (bearish) but are trending slightly upwards, which is a change from yesterday.  Call this lightly-bullish for stocks overall.  The database is struggling to move more positive and is not able to do so with any mass movement.
GGT Equity Curve based on the LCR Change Timer jumped from $2.4224 to $2.4874 with Wednesday's action, and has just broke even with the value on the day of the timer change (5/27)


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One day of gains does not make for a sea-change in sentiment.  While there is some bullish activity, the underlying trends are clearly pointing downward.  


Drew's StockOwl portfolio is adding a 5% position in DUG, which I will do if I see strength in the position (not at open, but if we clear yesterday's high).


I will continue to sit on my longs.


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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, not me.  Please do your own homework.

Regards,



pgd