Tuesday, June 8, 2010

LCR Change Timer Signals MOVE TO CASH for 6/8

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Status:
  • LCR Change Timer:  As anticipated at the FinViz site, Monday's action resulted in the timer moving to CASH (-1).  I am closing all long positions associated with this timer using a 1% trailing stop loss (TSL).  Unfortunately, they will all be for a loss, but we must live to fight another day.
  • GGT Price EMAs are bearish again.  All but the 65d EMA are below their faster values, e.g., 55d > 34d > 21d > 13d > 8d.  Statement is true as of morning of 6/8/10.
  • GGT Price ($22.83) is trading BELOW the 8d EMA ($23.70), which is bearish since all of the EMAs are inverted.  Note that the GGT price has penetrated the Fib 23.6% retracement, and the new support would be $20.89.
  • GGT Price ROCs all turned down with Friday's action, which is bearish.  All are negative, which further nails the coffin shut.
  • Slope of 65d EMA of GGT Price is negative (bearish) and pointing downward (bearish).  This is the wrong direction.
  • GGT Volume was -7% lower than the 50d MA, but this is within a normal distribution (neutral).  We are seeing less participation in the market, which I consider bearish.
  • Elder's 13d Force Index on the GGT Price continues negative (bearish) @ (470K) but is holding this relative level, which I consider mildly bullish.  We'll see.
  • GGT Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) fell from 0.210 to 0.139, which is short-term bearish.  It has dropped below it's 4d SMA, which I consider bearish.  
  • GGT LCR EMAs are all inverted (13 < 21 < 34 < 55) and with Friday's action, are all pointing downward.  
  • GGT LCR ROCs are all negative (bearish) and are pointing downward (bearish).
  • GGT Strength Index dropped dramatically from 0.19 to 0.04, which is the 2nd lowest value since July of last year.  We can't get much lower than this, so we favor a bounce from here.
  • GGT Equity Curve based on the LCR Change Timer dropped -1.8% with Monday's action.
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I plan to enter contra ETFs today, and will watch for a bottoming in their prices using the MACD.  My index contras that I will play are TWM, QID, DXD, SDS, and MZZ.  Sell longs into this rally.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, not me.  Please do your own work.

Regards,

pgd