Thursday, November 4, 2010

Short Term Signal Confirms LONG; Elder still LONG

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Summary
  • Review http://ggt-tsp.blogspot.com/ if you have a TSP account or are following that account.
  • The Short-Term LCR Change Timer has signaled LONG; VTI was purchased on Wednesday
  • The Elder Intermediate-Term Timer is LONG
  • Yesterday's action was up, but the internals are not sounding a "raging bull" horn.  Some caution is advised until we get final confirmation (all slopes of the LCR EMAs are pointing upward).
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Dashboard

Here's the dashboard going into Thursday's action:


As expected, the GGT Price Index moved upward with the markets, but note it only increased +0.3% to end the day at $26.91, an increase of $0.08.  Volume was up +14% but within 1 standard deviation of the 50d MA, so I would consider Wednesday's action a ho-hum sort of day with respect to final price and volume numbers.

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) moved up +13%, ending the day at 1.774.  Of significance here is that the GGT Strength Oscillator barely increased from 0.779 to 0.791, which gives me something to pause upon.  The movement in the LCR is due specifically to a jump in prices AND volume; the Strength Oscillator considers several parameters of rate of change (ROC) also, so while we jumped up in LCR, we didn't knock the skin off the ball in terms of the strength index.  Both are moving upward so I suppose I'll close my eyes and look the other way for now...

Of significance is the following graph:



While we are still inverted as far as the LCR EMAs are concerned (5d < 8d, 8d < 13d, 13d < 21d, 21d < 34d), the slopes of the 5d and 8d EMAs have turned up, as shown by the new green indicators on the right half of the figure.  This is a necessary condition for the inversion to be reversed, but at this point we are still very fragile in this bull leg upward.  I do think that caution is warranted.

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Short-Term LCR Change Timer

This timer has officially fired LONG.  Correspondingly, and because the VTI signal went long one day in advance, a position in VTI was purchased.  If you are considering following I would not wait for a pullback, as this is a fast moving/short-duration timer.

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Elder Intermediate-Term Force Index Timer

The timer is long, as it has been for some time.  My list of possible entries for today is as follows:

TAM
RHT
WYNN
LFL
CBI
SAN
JSDA
HUM
CIG
UXG
SUI
GMCR
TDG
MTD
CP
XME
MMP
CAR
INT
ICA
SKYW
ABX
BRNC
PKG
TX
CDY
MAT
PTY
TNC
PDM
ATK
PSA
WB
GAP
SSS
GTIV
HYT
MYI
NIO
EOI
JFR
IAG
HGT
QGEN
KCG
DHY
USG
AMED

A long list.  Note that these have not been balanced against the latest GGT Longs, as the update was seriously delayed due to external internet problems last evening.  Please check your candidates carefully.

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As always, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, not me.  Please check your work carefully and take ownership for your decisions.

Regards,

pgd