Monday, November 8, 2010

Long across the board, waiting for pullback to enter positions

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Summary

  • The primary slopes of the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) index are all newly positive for 2 days, which is an extremely bullish situation.
  • The LCR EMAs are all aligned with the exception of the 13d/21d pair, which still is inverted with the 13d EMA < 21d EMA.  Again, almost complete bullishness.
  • Short-Term LCR Change Timer is LONG
  • Intermediate-Term Elder Force Index Timer is LONG
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Let's start with the LCR Dashboard:





































We now have two solid days of the positive LCR slopes, from 5d thru 65d, as shown on the right side of the figure.  On the middle/middle-left, we have the status of the LCR EMAs, relative to each other.  Of minor significance is that we have a hold-out:  the 13d LCR EMA is still below the 21d LCR EMA, but since the slopes of all the LCR EMAs are pointing upward, we're in good shape for long investments overall.

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Here's the overall pricing/timer dashboard:

































The GGT price index rose +0.51% on volume that was 41% higher than the 50d MA.  This is bullish and I prefer to see rising prices on higher volume.

The pricing EMAs, as well as their slopes, are all green, indicating that they are aligned properly (8d > 13d, 13d > 21d, 21d > 34d, 34d > 55d), and that the slopes are continuing upward.  This is bullish for long positions and there is no reason to sell anything on the long side unless it is tanking and trying to go against market flow.

The database strength fell from 1.0 on Thursday to 0.891, which I expected.  This is a very overbought value and I'd like to see it relax further prior to a massive entry into positions.

Overall, we have a very bullish condition for stock and I need to get my money deployed as soon as possible, preferably on a pullback of individual positions.  This is where the 2d Elder Force Index can help.

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Short-Term LCR Change Timer

Presently, this timer is LONG.  I presently hold positions in QLD (-0.56% gain), UWM (-0.19% gain), UYG (+3.20% gain), and VTI (+2.36% gain) in accordance with the rules of this timer.  I will sell any position that appears to be breaking down significantly or rapidly.  At this point, if you are not in these positions, I recommend you sit on the sidelines.

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Intermediate-Term Elder Force Index Timer

The Elder timer is long, and has been without whipsaw since October 19th, 2010.  This timer is suggesting that you can purchase stocks long.

Pullback candidates that meet the Elder 2d Force Index criteria are as follows:

KNXA
VRUS
FMCN
BAK
CIB
TTWO
TSU
CROX
CTXS
CACI
PXP
FMX
EMC
E
LSCC
TMO
NIHD
CAH
JDAS
TTI
SEAC
APT
DMND
FITB
EQT
FLO
ATLS
VVR
NIO
SYY
CL
GMR
NIO
SYY
CL
GMR

These are not recommendations for purchases.  What these do represent are those stocks that are in an uptrend yet pulled back sufficiently on Friday to allow entry today.  IF these stocks move above Friday's high AND do so on significant 10-day volume, your probabilityl of success will increase.

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GGT Top 25

This is a new strategy that is working well.  Every week I create a list of 100 stocks from the GGT Longs that have the best performance in terms of daily gain but with lower volatility.  This list is valid until close of business Wednesday night:

GOOG
AAPL
CMG
CEO
ABV
MA
BIDU
SOHU
GYMB
LNN
DRQ
AMG
RVBD
SWM
BVN

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Remember, you are responsible for your actions, not me.  Please do your diligence and take ownership for your decisions.

Regards,

pgd