Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Top 25 ETF Changes for Thursday, 1/20/11

.
Drum roll please maestro ...

Actually, even with today's serious downdraft, the impact to the Top 25 ETF portfolio was not as bad as you would expect in terms of turnover.  This is because most of the held ETFs are still GGT long-rated equities, and while we did have some 2x and 3x leverage in play, the drop of -2.90% was tolerable.

Here are the changes going into Thursday:

Sell

AGQ (already sold intra week)
FAS (-4.24%)
RFG (already sold intra week)
TMV (-0.22%)
XME (+3.85%)

The sell orders will be staged prior to open and will execute as Marketocracy and market volume dictate.

Buy

MVV
SIVR
IYE
RKH
SSO

This will be a good litmus test of these equities.  MVV is actually even, if not up a tad, concerning large effective volume (LEV) over the last 8 days, even with today's downdraft.  SIVR has been in a general drift downward in terms of LEV, but nothing that I would consider a fire sale.  IYE is relatively even, much like MVV, over the past 8 days, so that is a net wash.  RKH has been steadily trending upwards in terms of price and LEV, which I find interesting and hence the reason it appears here.  SSO, the +2x leveraged ETF in the S&P500 index, has been getting wacked more than any of the other new buys, but ended the day with a last minute surge, so we'll see.

Hold

The following are NOT in order of strength, but are randomly presented:

ERX
UWM
PALL
OIH
BGU
DIG
IEO
IEZ
KOL
SLV
SOXX
SOXL
TNA
TQQQ
TYH
UPRO
UYM
VDE
XLE
XOP

The following is the implied order of relative strength, compared to the top 100 ETFs that are long as of the screen, AND compared to those appearing from last week:





As allways, the color scheme is as follows:
  • Red:  moved down in relative ranking, compared to level last week
  • Yellow:  same relative ranking as last week
  • Green:  moved upward in relative ranking, compared to last week
  • White:  new addition to top 100 list, was either rated "CASH" the prior week OR was so darned strong that it jumped into the top 25 without going through the lower 75.

As far as the shadow portfolio over at Marketocracy is concerned, here's the holdings and individual performance as of this writing:






As with all my images, right-click on it to open in a new window or new tab.

You can see from the very top line that the total gain is 8.5%.  This portfolio was created Thanksgiving weekend, or 11/26, so it's not done badly.

Going into tomorrow (Thursday), these are the Top 25 ETFs that have a postive LEV over the last 8 days and show a positive divergence from small effective volume (you and me, SmEV):

PALL
UPRO
TQQQ
IEZ
OIH
TYH
XLE
RKH

No order above is implied -- I simply went down the list and eliminated those with a negatively-trending LEV over the last 8 days.  RKH is by far the strongest in terms of LEV, then I'd say PALL is next.

This latter methodology is with some merit -- that is, only selecting those top 25 ETFs with a positively-trending LEV at the time of purchase.  Last week I purchased ONLY those top 25 ETFs with positively-trending LEV using about $30K of capital, and today I sustained only a tad LESS than 0.97% loss on the entire basis, so overall I'm encouraged that we can modulate the selection with those ETFs with institutional buying.






=======================

Remember, the Top 25 portfolios are test portfolios.  Trade them if you desire, but you do so with no guarantees or representations from me.  Continued following of my blog and these test strategies implies that you have read and accepted the terms of the disclaimer found at the top of the blog masthead when you first log into this site.

Also remember that you, not I, are responsible for your actions.  Do your diligence, point out my errors, ask questions, but above all, take responsibility for trading/investing/whatever.

Regards,

pgd