Monday, November 24, 2014

Buy Signal Confirmed, 100% Equity Target. Nov 24 Close

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Summary: All moving averages of the Long-Cash Ratio are now positive.  The slopes of the averages are also positive.  The Cumulative Tick has moved above it's longest moving average.  Not a perfect set of signals, but good enough to remove all money management governors.  Backtesting suggests that this signal will fail, but we don't live in the past.  "To the moon ..."

Charts

For those of you who follow my ramblings, I'm simply going to post the next two charts as justification as a change in my position from yesterday.  Contact me via the comments section if you have questions.  Effectively, everything that was giving me pause yesterday has cleared itself.

NOTE that backtesting shows that this type of setup of signals is prone to failure.  That fact has not changed -- that is simply the setup.  How we got here is weak when we considered past "like" events, so, caution is advised.




Strategy

I'll cancel any open orders if the white Cumulative Tick line above drops below the red Cumulative Tick average.

I'm going to start getting back into the market with my ETF portfolios.  The two that appear to be performing well are my Leveraged SP500 and SPDR portfolios.  Allocations are as follows:

SPDR Portfolio:

XLK 20.89%
XLF 17.17%
XLV 13.11%
XLY 11.36%
XLP 11.29%
XLI 10.56%
XLE 9.65%
XLB 2.69%
XLU 2.66%
XPH 0.33%
XSD 0.29%

Leveraged S&P 500 Portfolio:

UPRO 46.53%
SPY 36.01%
SSO 15.26%
IWM 2.20%
My entry into these positions is at the allocations shown.  I only buy strength.  The entry price will be 1.001 above the high of the day.  Hence, if the high was $100, then the entry price is $100.10 for tomorrow.

The order will be a BUY STOP, GTC, effective after 9:45 a.m.

In addition to the list from yesterday, the following stocks should be added to the buy list:



Note that USNA is to be removed from the list.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.   Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd