Thursday, November 20, 2014

Moving to 50% Cash - Wednesday Nov 19 Close

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I'm traveling this week and am in Austin, TX, so this will be brief.

The Intermediate Term Timer has transitioned to MIXED state.  This occurs when the internal alignment of the exponential and simple moving averages within the timer are not in alignment.  This is a major warning signal.

The LCR table is growing in bearishness on a short-term and now, with today's action, intermediate term, which I consider anything above the 13d slope.

The transition of the intermediate-term timer is enough for a SELL signal to the next level down, in this case 50%, to be generated.

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I am raising cash to 50%.  I am doing this by issuing sell orders at a 1% Trailing Stop Loss (TSL), good 'til canceled (GTC), on all my holdings that are negative in gains sorted to most positive, until the equity equals 50% of my holdings.  This way, the weakest stocks in my portfolio are eliminated, and the ones with the most unrealized gains will remain active.

Here's the Timer Table:



The timer table shows we are still in a longer-term uptrend.

Here's the slope table:


On a short-term basis, we need some significant green on the RIGHT side to get us back above 50% equity.  For now, I'm raising cash.  It'll most likely take a few days to sell my positions and get to 50%.

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I'll be back this weekend and will attempt to catch up on where we are at with all of this.

Regards,

pgd