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Summary: With the close of markets on the 23rd, my indicators are showing that it's time to be fully invested in the market. As always, there are warning clouds on the horizon, but there rarely is a perfect blue-sky environment when it comes to investing ...
Taken in isolation, all indicators are now long which directs me to become 100% invested.
Long-Cash Ratio Slope Table:
Right click on the image to open in a new tab or window.
The LCR table has transitioned to fully long, with the LCR moving from 1.193 to 1.263, or a move of 6% upward. This is NOT a big move -- out of all the positive moves since September 2008 it ranks at 575 -- the lower the number the better. Contrary to the news headlines about the NAS making new 15 year highs, etc. this is not a strong market when we look under the hood. The "island" of red on the left side of the table indicates that we had a slight pullback, but not everything transitioned so we did not get a "full reset". Investing in markets that are NOT coming off a bottom is risky business, and my model does not contemplate this specific scenario (but I do...)
You'll see in the next section that we're still in a risky position but certainly, indicators are more positive than negative.
The takeaway from the figure above is that we're closer to where we have historically sold off (light red) than where we make major advances (light green). This simply means that while my short/intermediate/long term timer models are saying to jump in with both feet, the reality of the situation is that we should be a bit more cautious.
I keep track of the success of signals given various conditions of the LCR table. The figure above paints the current scenario.
Coming into yesterday morning the 2d, 3d, 55d, and 65d moving average slopes were positive with respect to the LCR. We transitioned to a fully-long market with the close last evening (close of 4/23), so we had a transition of the 5d, 8d, 13d, 21d, 34d moving averages. The table above indicates that the likelihood of investing today in the GGT index (a simple average of all the stocks in the present database and closely resembling the S&P500 or the Russell 2000) would likely work out between 13% and 41% of the time.
These aren't bad odds, but of course, actual mileage may vary. This simply tells me that investing in breakouts today as well as other stocks that are moving long probably is a good risk, at least for the short term.
Note that table above uses ANY timer transition to stop the evaluation. Hence, if the short-term timer moves south, the numbers are calculated, OR, if the intermediate-term timer moves south but the short remains long (possible in this environment) then we terminate the calculations.
I'm a buyer today. Here are the candidates in my various watchlists: