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I've prepared a video blog for those who want to view on their electronic media. It's 54 minutes long, so grab your favorite beverage and relax. The text that follows the video highlights some of the areas I touch in the video.
UPDATE: YouTube downsamples the quality, so here is a link to the MP4 file on my Dropbox file system.
- Click the link: https://goo.gl/c1K7rR
- In the upper RIGHT corner, click the "Download" then "Direct Download" option to bypass YouTube.
Market Leaders -- Short Term Resistance Apparent
I define market leaders as those that are growing REVs and EPS on a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), trailing 12-month (TTM), and year-over-year (YoY) basis. These stocks must also be trading in the upper 25% range of their yearly movement, and the 50d MA > 150d MA > 200d MA. Volume must be at least 100K share average for the past 3 months.
When you apply that filter, you end up with the following basket:
The list of Leader stocks is available in my Dropbox "stock" file, If you are not a subscriber to my Dropbox (free), then directions are below on how to become one. The table can be found on the "Watchlist" tab.
These are all good stocks, and the have consistently been performing well within this market.
When I take that basket and create an index using HGSI, I get the following:
- the MACD histogram has turned negative. Conclusion: momentum of this basket of stocks is waning.
- the slope of the 13d MA (price) has now moved below the slope of the 34d MA (price), but both are still positive. Conclusion: on a shorter-term basis, capturing some gains may be prudent, as prices are under pressure.
- the highs of the index, starting back on 2/29 and continuing through 3/11, are hitting resistance. Conclusion: the leaders have most likely run as far as they can on this present leg.
- Long: these are stocks that are outperforming their historical averages and are doing so on increased volume and prices
- Cash: these are stocks that are underperforming their historical averages and are doing so on lower prices and perhaps lower volume
- The MACD Histogram is still quite positive.
- The slopes of the 13d MA (price) and 34d MA (price) are positive, with the 13d > 34d (bullish) -- overall price appreciation
- The index is trading well above it's 200d MA -- longer-term bullish
- The index is trading well above it's 13d MA -- short-term bullish.
- The index started it's breakout much later than the Leader's index, showing that longer-termed investors needed confirmation of this market cycle before they moved off the sidelines.