Strategy and Maintaining My Shopping List

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Leaders are holding up well despite the pullback.  Here's the updated list:

COR
DWA
EBIX
FB
FIZZ
HTHT
LGND
LMAT
LYTS
PAM
POST
SCLN
SFBS
SIMO
SPKE
STS
TLK
UFPI
ULTA
WBMD

The following stocks are still part of the list but are updating at TradeStation, so I don't know (as of this writing), whether they pass the Greenfield criteria:

AEIS
BANC
CENT
ERI
FPRX
PLPM

I intend to avoid the following stocks due to pending earnings release:

EBIX reports on Monday.
SCLN reports on Tuesday
HTHT reports on Wednesday
PAM reports on Thursday

I also reject the following stocks for immediate entry because they already would trigger my exit criteria:

LGND, -2% below the 21d EMA
HTHT, -1.6% below the 21d EMA
TLK, -1.3% below the 21d EMA
WBMD, huge selloff/reversal on Thursday, and is now below the 21d EMA
SIMO, -0.4% below the 21d EMA

Here's the view of the list from my Greenfield Radar presentation:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Detailed field descriptors are provided elsewhere in this blog as well as in my most recent newsletter.

From a group relative strength perspective, they are outperforming the S&P500:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The upward movement of the upper plot, in the upper right corner tells you that the group is moving higher, relative to the S&P 500.  The group price plot is the lower bar presentation and you see that prices are holding steady (meaning that the S&P 500 is falling).

If these stocks are not on your radar then I have no idea what else would be considered "quality" stocks.  These are clearly the best of the best.

In yesterday's blog entry, I mentioned that FB, FIZZ, and BANC were quietly being accumulated, and I gave entry levels for each.  Both FIZZ and BANC fired triggers to enter, although the volume on each was lower than I like.  Give serious thought to the strength that these stocks are exhibiting.

My stop loss for BANC remains a close below $19.87, and for FIZZ, two closes below 45.55.  FB is a bit more tricky, but a close below 116.57 looks prudent as an exit flag.

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Stategy

All this being said, the broader market model is suggesting extreme caution.  To wit:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The LCR table, which I have discussed at length in my latest newsletters, is now fully "red" on the left.  Stocks are falling in price on all measured periods, and until we get some indication of the group hitting a bottom then movement en masse into the market is ill-advised.

My timer table is not saying to exit the markets completely, but certainly, it is recommending that I raise cash to at least 67% of my portfolio:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The short- and intermediate-termed timers are solidly in CASH, meaning we are short-term bearish, and the long-term timer still says we are okay for holding those stocks that we have gain.  No "full" sell signals until the table turns completely red, so we simply are not there yet.

The Cumulative Tick picture is still "long" but on the thinnest of margins:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Again, I cover this presentation in every newsletter so if you are not familiar, then download the latest and get yourself up to speed, as this is a primary indicator for me.

The top trace shows some improvement in the number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows, so this is good.

The middle trace shows a sustained, but short sell-off that happened mid-day and from which we really never recovered.

The bottom trace shows the real-time market, and simply put, the closeness of the white trace, which is the cumulative tick, and the solid red line, which is a moving average that has historically been a good "do not cross" level, is troubling.  This being stated, this is also the opportune time to consider buying stocks, PROVIDED THE LCR TABLE confirms.

It isn't, so I would not get trigger happy on releasing a bunch of long orders.  That's just me though -- do what you think is best.

This final presentation is not one that I post often because it relies on your understanding of the LCR, slope, and what all of that means:

Click on the image to enlarge.

If you are new to GGT or my methods, this will probably read like Greek to you.  Simply bear with me.

The chart above shows the slope of the 8d exponential moving average of the long-cash ratio (LCR).  You saw the LCR presentation above, and if you look at that table, you'll see a solid black box around the 8d slope column.  That data is the chart above.

In the chart above, I've circled the LAST TWO DAYS of the 8d EMA slope value.  They are nearly on top of each other.  They are also hitting local 2-year lows, meaning, we probably are not going much lower.  THIS means that we're due for a bounce, and it is THIS SPECIFIC BOUNCE that often presents a good buying opportunity.  Whether it will be a sustained bounce or dead-cat is unknown.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine.

I doubt today (Friday) will be the broader move up.  I do expect it in the short-term though, and as soon as the 8d ema moves above the horizontal black line we'll have another broad entry signal.  Until then, I intend to stick with the Leader's list only, and then only those stocks that are showing accumulation.

So, aside from watching (closely) FB, FIZZ, and BANC, I'm on the sidelines.  I still continue to hold COR, CTWS, EFX, FIVN, and a position in VIX, as well as a few puts in EBIX, IPHI, and VXX.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544
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The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/e75Ayj

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Leaders Rotating; LCR Table Shows Increasing Bearishness

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I've updated the Greenfield Leader's list to the following:

Recently reported:

BAK

PLPM

WBMD

SPKE

FIZZ

BANC

STS

FB

SIMO

COR

AEIS

Reporting today:

DWA

ERI

FPRX

POST

Reporting next week:

EBIX

SSNI

SCLN

HTHT

Reporting in a couple of weeks:

TUMI

ULTA

Notable deletions from my published list this past weekend are:

RUBI

BFR

OSUR

VLRS

PATK

ATSG

TLK

CKEC

***** I'm watching the following stocks for breakouts:

PLPM

WBMD

ULTA

SPKE

FIZZ

BANC

STS

FB

COR

AEIS

These next three are being quietly accumulated and the purchase is leaving large footprints:

FIZZ (above 48.01)

FB (natural stop loss at 116.82; a price/volume breakout above 119.57 would be a good signal)

BANC (natural stop loss at 19.87; a price/volume breakout above 20.64 would be good)

I will enter a 25% position in any of these today if they aggressively move upward.

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From a broader market perspective, we are under significant pressure and conservative guidance is to raise cash to only be exposed 33% or so.  I am under that level so am looking intently at the Leader's list to add to positions.

The LCR Table, which I cover extensively in my newsletter, is quite bearish:

Click on the image to view a larger version.

There is nothing in this presentation that says "buy".

The cumulative tick chart is showing increasing issues with a growth of stocks hitting 52-week new LOWS.  This is a bearish indication:

Click on the image to view a larger version.

The CT chart is still short-term bullish, as the solid red line in the bottom plot is uptrending.  This being stated, the emergence of a larger number of 52-week new lows is new since late January / early February and needs to be watched.  If the red line in the upper plot continues to get closer to the green line, or heaven forbid, rises above the green line, then the market is correcting and we should move to the sidelines.  Additionally, if the solid white line moves below the red line then we will be in a short-term sidelines signal.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/e75Ayj

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.  

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Markets Up, but LCR Diverges Downward - May 2 Close

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The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/e75Ayj

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Although price is what we put in our bank accounts and we typically welcome a movement upward in price, Monday's action has "caution" written all over it.  Let us start with the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table:

Click on the image to view a larger image.

The LCR table is explained in my latest newsletter so download it at the link above to review.

Prices on the main indexes moved up yesterday, as did my GGT index.  Despite this, stocks continued to slip below their optimized moving averages, causing them to move from a "long" status to a "cash" status.  This is reflected in the LCR value that you see above, to the far left.  The LCR fell another -3% to land at a final value of 2.294.  This is a 3-day move down, and I don't care what the major indexes are doing.

The left side of the table shows continued downward movement of the moving averages applied to the LCR.  The 2d through the 34d are pointing downward, so on a short-term and intermediate-term perspective more stocks are moving to a "cash" status than not.  Recall that "cash" means that prices are falling below adaptive, optimized moving averages, and as a result, the stocks have triggered a signal to exit any long positions.

The right side shows just how weak the movement was yesterday.  This is a table of values that shows how much the left side has changed, and what is more telling, only the shorter time frames saw any positive change.  To have any confidence in a buying opportunity I need to see green on the right -- we are not there.

Takeaway:  Continue to unload those positions that are underwater.  Trail a stop -- details of how to accomplish this are fully explained in my newsletter.  No new buying.

Timer Table

The following shows the status of my timers:

The short of the table is that it is telling me to be cautious.  We are whipsawing back and forth on the intermediate timer, which means we are right at thresholds.  Correspondingly, I favor no more than 33% invested as a target right now.

Cumulative Tick

The CT presentation is longer-term bullish but is taking a whacking today:

Click on the image to open a larger version.

The top traces show that we continue to hit new 52-week highs, relative to hitting new 52-week lows (red).  This is longer-termed bullish.

The middle trace resets daily and shows me sustained, algorithmic buying.  We started the sell-off at the open this morning and it continues as I write.  Today is not a buying day.

The bottom trace shows the ongoing cumulative tick and basically, the solid, uptrending red line is positive for entry to stocks.  As long as the white line, which is the instantaneous CT, remains above the red it will stay pointing upward.  If the white line crosses the longer red moving average line from above it will start pointing downward and this is a signal to me to not purchase stocks.

Strategy

I am watching a number of stocks for possible entry:

DWA

EBIX

COR

PLPM

SCLN

FIZZ

BANC

FB

ERI

RUBI

ULTA

AXGN

SIMO

FPRX

WBMD

TUMI

POST

QIHU

CKEC

Note that many of these report earnings this week so I will wait to enter those if we do get an entry signal.  All of these stocks are GGT "long" rated, at least for now (grin).

An entry signal looks like the following excerpt from my LCR table:

When the 8d slope of my LCR table turns positive this *generally* has signaled a good time to enter.  Of course, stock selection matters too, and the list provided above changes daily.

I will post an entry signal when it occurs here, as well as a post to Twitter (grems8544) and to FB.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Buying the Market - April 13th Close

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The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/Laj4DS

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox and newsletter users, if the need arises.

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Current Outlook

The markets have recovered from Friday's consolidation and are advancing higher.  Bad news from the banks, Alcoa, and others is being shrugged off.  This is a strong market, and I am picking strong stocks.

As of the close of markets on April 13, I am a buyer.  Two primary reasons for this:

• The Cumulative Tick picture has improved dramatically
• The Long-Cash Ratio jumped the 72nd strongest amount in about 1800+ trading days that I've recorded.

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Cumulative Tick

The Cumulative Tick is back to almost picture perfect with Wednesday's action:

Click on the image to enlarge.

I described this view in my last blog and in my newsletter, and I urge you to read those details.  The bottom plot shows an expanding cumulative tick and when this is occurring we have a buying market.  I do not want to be caught on the sidelines.  Everything on this chart indicates that the markets are buying right here.

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Long-Cash Ratio Table

The Long-Cash Ratio, or the number of stocks ranked "long" to those that are ranked "cash" or avoid by my system, jumped 37% over the previous day's value of 1.816.  This was the 72nd strongest move in the LCR and while history favors a pullback after this occurs, the pullbacks have been buying opportunities.

The middle of the table is completely green on all measured time frames.  This means that stocks are being bought and are being bought on volume, driving prices upward.  This is a clear entry signal.

The right side of the table foretold me on Tuesday that we could have an opportunity on Wednesday.  The green of the right always precedes the green on the left, and yesterday was no exception.

Click on the image to enlarge.

Strategy

In my personal portfolio I added 6 positions yesterday:

ADC
CMN
EFX
GGG
HPY
POOL

Each is rated "long" by my system and has solid fundamentals as well as current-market characteristics.

A few stocks did not trigger and I will lower my BUY STOP, in accordance with the guidance I put out in my newsletter:

COR

CUBE

GVA

STOR

There are other stocks that look good here too, with THO, ULTA being a couple of them.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd

Reducing Exposure as Markets Pull Back

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The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF: https://goo.gl/Laj4DS

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox and newsletter users, if the need arises.

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Current Outlook

From my GGT perspective, we are consolidating.  The percentage of long-rated stocks has dropped a significant amount this past week, somewhat easing the overbought pressure of the prior weeks but this should be considered expected and positive behavior as long as we do not drop too far.  My Long-Cash Ratio table indicates short-term bearishness and we do not yet have any indication of strong resumption of the uptrend.  My Cumulative Tick indicator is cautionary with a very weak uptrend.

Percent "Long"-Rated Stocks

I have been writing about an expected pullback in the Percent Long value, and this week delivered what I was looking for:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The chart reflects the number of stocks in my database that are rated “long” – those that are outperforming their historical optimized averages.  We closed Friday at 64.3%, down significantly from the 76.3% value reported the week prior.  This means that 12% of the stocks in the database (net) fell below their historical, optimized upward-performance levels, so they became “cash”-rated.  The solid red line is at 63.6%, so we are entering territory where we could potentially play a bit – or not.  If history is any indicator, we tend to move lower from this level, potentially falling into the white zone or even into the lower green zone before recovery.  Falling into the green zone, then reversing upward would be an ideal situation.  Broader market index levels are directly correlated with the fall of the Percent Long value, so be aware that we may see some weakness as we roll into the start of earnings week.

Long-Cash Ratio Table

Closely correlated with the Percent Long value is my Long-Cash Ratio, which is reported in the far left column in the following table:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The LCR fell a significant amount since the last time I reported the value, which was on April 1st (3.225).  This value is a ratio of the number of stocks that are “long” rated, to those that are “cash” rated.  The latest reported value is 1.802 and the present trend is falling.  The middle/left side of the table, the area titled “Slopes of LCR EMAs”, reflects moving averages of the series of LCR values.  Despite some positive movement in the indexes on Friday, the LCR continued to fall, and as you can see, we have negative values (slopes) through the 55d moving average. 

Falling LCR values, in multiple time frames, is bearish.  I do not purchase stocks when the LCR value is falling – no exceptions.

The right side of the LCR table shows the rate of change of the left side, also known as acceleration.  You can see some green creeping in with Wednesday and Friday’s action, but in both cases neither one was strong – neither spanned all measured periods.  Acceleration (the right side) always precedes slope (the left side), so if I do not see strong action on the right side, there is little hope that the left side will confirm movement into the markets.

The tipping point I am looking for to place orders is for the 8d moving average on the “Slopes of the LCR EMAs”, highlighted in a dark border, to turn green.  Right now it is red and has a value of -0.15.  Do not concern yourself with the value, but the fact that it is red tells me that Monday (today) will not be a buying day.  We could see a sudden reversal on strength, and this could trigger me to start to place buy-stop orders as early as Monday night.

Cumulative Tick

Another cautionary signal is provided by my Cumulative Tick chart:

Click on the image to enlarge.

The top line reflects the number of 52-week new highs (52W-NH, green), the number of 52-week New Lows (52W-NL, red), and the difference (yellow).  When green is above red we are in an expanding market, with stocks trading in the higher portion of their 52-week ranges than in the lower.  We are currently expanding.

As a broad signal, the 52W-NH signal is a great overall “gate signal” to watch.  With little exception, I require that more stocks are making new highs before I enter the market.  The current signal is “long” (green above red and has been for several weeks).

The middle trace indicates algorithmic buying/selling.  The indicator resets each day.  When it moves down rapidly, stocks are being sold off and are completing the transaction at a price lower than the previous transaction (“tick down”).  When the trace moves steadily upward, stocks are being bought, with the latest price higher than the prior transaction (“tick up”).  Straight-line movement upward is indicative of sustained buying and straight-line movement downward is indicative of sustained selling.  Hence, I get a good view of the algorithms and what they are doing on a day-to-day basis by reviewing this indicator.

The middle trace shows back-forth action throughout the week.  You can see that Thursday was a really bad day – with almost sustained selling throughout the day which picked up in the afternoon and stabilized about 2:45 p/ET.  Friday started strong but faded throughout the day, ending lower than the peak.  This back-forth action shows rotation, and it also shows indecision within the markets. 

Obviously, when mixed signals exist, caution is advised.

The bottom trace is my canary on a short-term basis.  The white trace is the cumulative tick – a running total of all tick transactions that occur on the NYSE.  Movement upward of the white trace shows instantaneous buying; drop of the white trace shows instantaneous selling.  Moving averages are applied to this value to give me the ribbon presentation.

Here are my conclusions:  first of all, we are below where we started the week – this supports the observation of falling Percent Longs or a falling LCR.  We broke below the solid red moving average line on Thursday, and for me, this is a major shot across the bow of the ship.  We finished the week with a very tight spread between all of the cumulative tick moving averages, and this means that the trend upward trend, indicated by the 52W-NH dominance, is in jeopardy.

Timer Table

The table shows my timer system back to 1/7/2016.  Three timer periods are indicated:

•        Short:  generally a week to two in length.
•        Intermediate:  Can be several weeks to a month.
•        Long:  several months are not uncommon.

Of course, there are exceptions at the turning points or when the market is trending horizontally and is not moving upwards or downwards with any force.  You can see this behavior between March 18th and March 31st, when some intermediate-termed weakness was observed, but it wasn’t enough to cause the short-term timer to move to Cash.

Since last week we have “whipsawed”.  Whipsawing occurs when trends are close to thresholds that would cause them to change state, and they move a little in one direction, then a little in another.  The end result is a confusion of signals, and generally frustration for those trying to follow those signals.

On Monday, April 4th, we closed the day with the timer system reverting back to a “raise-cash” state, with a target of about 67% in cash.  You can see that the recommendation has remained throughout the week.  Correspondingly, I unloaded positions that were more than -3% below my buy point at the end of any given day.  This ensures that the weakest stocks are eliminated from my portfolio, simply because it is unlikely that those stocks that I am holding at this point in the cycle will move upwards.

If fundamentals remain solid with these stocks that I have unloaded, they will be on my watch list for purchase, most likely at equivalent or lower prices.  The timer system indicates a larger percentage of cash should be my target, and this is what I am pursuing.

Strategy:

1. Taking the day off from buying.
2. End of day will be a re-evaluation.  I'm on my way to Denver for a day so it will be late.
3. If overall status changes within my system I will post late tonight or early tomorrow.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Whipsaw? Upcoming Buying Opportunity? Let Us Be Careful Here

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Note, I will be in San Antonio, Texas from April 5 through (potentially) April 10th.  If you are in the area let me know by calling/texting my cell or sending me an email (leave a message below if you have neither and I'll contact you) and if schedule allows, I would enjoy meeting face-to-face.

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The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF:  https://goo.gl/CtQfQU

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox and newsletter users, if the need arises.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Timer Table

With the close of markets on Monday, April 4th, my timer system has reverted to a conservative position, specifically a target of 67% cash, and the short-term and intermediate-term timers moving to cash.

In taking a closer look at the long-term timer, we could be as close as 11 days (or shorter, of course) if we continue dropping at the rate that we saw day.

Price action today was not that bad.  The Russell 2000 eeked out a 0.01% gain, the DOW dropped -0.31%, the NAS dropped -0.46%, and the SPX dropped -0.32%.  Volume was lighter today than the previous two days.  So what gives?

First, we are close to thresholds.  The timer structure is built such that the short timer is independent of the intermediate, and both are independent of the long-term timer.  What this means is that we can get the pattern you see above -- where the intermediate fails for a significant period of time -- yet the short-term remains intact (more or less; 3/28 was an exception).  The reversion of both the short-term and intermediate-term timers with today's action points to a significant reduction in the number of stocks that are long -- price action on individual securities moved them to cash.

Let's look at the Long-Cash Ratio table:

LCR Table:

Here's the updated table after tonight's close:

Click on the table to view a larger version.

I wrote about the table in my latest newsletter; download a copy here ( https://goo.gl/CtQfQU ) if you are interested in further details.

The left side of the table shows that we moved from 3.225 to 2.793.  Presently, we have 2257 stocks long in the database and 808 that are in cash.  107 stocks actually moved to the "New Cash" side, meaning that they experienced a price or price/volume collapse, whereas only 24 achieved "New Long", which means they moved up on price and volume.  What is important here is that the net is downward, and hence, the large drop.

The middle of the table reflects the slope of a number of moving averages of the value on the far left.  When the value is pointing up it is positive and green; when it is pointing down it is negative and red.  You can see that today's action was strong enough to take the left side of the table to the same level as on 3/28.  Any further continued action downward will add red to the left side of the table, and this may/may not be a good thing, e.g., we may encounter a buying opportunity, or perhaps it will pass us.

The right side of the table shows more red.  This is the change in the left side of the table, or the change in slope.  Again, this is done on varying time frames, and is important.  Red on the right always precedes red on the left, and you can see that we have two days of solid red indicators.

Conclusion?  The markets are slowing -- the number of stocks that are outperforming their historical behavior (optimized) is less and less on a day-over-day basis.  This is not an expanding market when this occurs, but it could be a buying opportunity.

What I'm interested in seeing (for a buying opportunity) is that we get a complete set of red rows on both the left and right side, then we see green start on the right, eventually leading to green on the left.  We're not close to this as of today's close.  Here's an example of what the "signature" table looks like:

Click on the table to view a larger version.

Notice the green on the right, and it leads the green on the left.  Note that the table on the left is red and then turns green.  This is a good setup, provided other conditions exist too.  I'd like to see that before I move aggressively back into the market.

Cumulative Tick

Today's cumulative tick chart was the weakest that I've seen 3/24 and before that, 3/15.

Click on the table to view a larger version.

The white trace is the most important component of this chart.  It fell rather aggressively today, showing that there was net selling on the NYSE.  Another day of this same behavior could force it below the solid red line, which will certainly put this market under pressure.

I will post, after the close, if this chart turns more bearish.

Strategy

Compared to my previous entry, as well as my newsletter, my strategy is slightly modified:

1. (Modified) I am not going to buy stocks on Tuesday with the LCR and Timer Table changing state.  I still have alerts set.
2. (Modified) I presume the up-trend will continue, until it doesn't.  
3. I am reviewing selling cash-secured puts on liquid contra ETFs for April expiration.  While volatility drops prices for options are dropping too, which improves metrics.
4. I am reviewing selling cash secured puts on quality stocks that I wouldn't mind owning at a lower price.  Many stocks have moved higher in this market, and I missed some of the action.  Selling a CSP will allow me to collect a premium and if put to me, would allow me to purchase the stock at a lower price.

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Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544
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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Money Management Model Transitions to 100% Invested

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If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me see the number of folks reading this.

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Note, I will be in San Antonio, Texas from April 5 through (potentially) April 10th.  If you are in the area let me know by calling/texting my cell or sending me an email (leave a message below if you have neither and I'll contact you) and if schedule allows, I would enjoy meeting face-to-face.

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The latest issue of my newsletter is available for download.  It has far more detail than what is posted here (no sense writing it twice).  Click the following link, which should automatically download the PDF:  https://goo.gl/CtQfQU

If you want to be on the newsletter distribution, then please send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "NEWSLETTER" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox and newsletter users, if the need arises.

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From a broad perspective, my timer model is indicating that I should target full investment of all funds:

Friday, April 1st's action indicates that all my timers -- short, intermediate, and long are now back on the "long" side.  Despite the overbought region of the markets, the trend upward (or at least horizontally) is intact and there is nothing except our own fear of being overbought that is keeping us out of the markets.

The Cumulative Tick chart reinforces this position:

The top portion of this figure shows the number of stocks hitting a new 52-week high (green) compared to those hitting a new 52-week low (red), and the net (yellow).  You can see the strength in this market – green is well above red for the entire week.

The middle portion of this figure shows algorithmic buying.  I presently have it set to 500 stocks per minute on the NYSE.  When algorithmic buying occurs, 500 stocks (or more) per minute tick upwards in price and this is recorded as an advance upward.  When algorithmic selling occurs, 500 stocks (or more) per minute tick downwards in price and this too is recorded.  Continual advance upward of this line shows solid, sustained buying.  Horizontal advance shows lack-luster buying/selling, and continual decrease downward of this line shows solid, sustained selling.  Tuesday’s action shows a great example of the market reaction to the FOMC’s statements – heavy buying after Ms. Yellen make her remarks, and it was followed on Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday were relatively quiet.

The bottom portion of the figure shows a moving average ribbon of the cumulative tick.  Essentially, when the white trace (real-time) is above the solid red (longest moving average – about 3 days in length), we are in a short-term uptrend.  You can see that the white trace did not make much leeway upwards on Thursday / Friday, so the gains of Tuesday and Wednesday were being digested.

 As long as the white trace is above the red trace in the Cumulative Tick plot, the market trend is upward, at least on a short-term basis.

Personal Holdings:

My own holdings are showing a topping behavior:

You can see that the MACD presentation is already rolling over for this set of stocks.  Note that I purchased this set of stocks between late January and early February – review the MACD and price levels during those periods and compare to those that we are seeing today.

Strategy

My strategy for the week is as follows:

1. I have alerts set on all stocks that I presently own that I would like to add to.  The alerts are real-time and trigger on present price as well as forecasted volume.
2. I presume the up-trend will continue, until it doesn't.  I am in buying mode on alerted stocks, but I am sitting on the sidelines for stocks that do not meet price AND volume criteria.
3. I am reviewing selling cash-secured puts on liquid contra ETFs for April expiration.  While volatility drops prices for options are dropping too, which improves metrics.
4. I am reviewing selling cash secured puts on quality stocks that I wouldn't mind owning at a lower price.  Many stocks have moved higher in this market, and I missed some of the action.  Selling a CSP will allow me to collect a premium and if put to me, would allow me to purchase the stock at a lower price.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stock updates are posted in a daily file that I attempt to share by the following morning with all subscribers. To review the stocks that you are holding and see how I evaluate them, you need to be a member of my Dropbox.  Send an email to GreekGodTrading [ a t ] gmail {d o t] com, making the appropriate changes to the email address, with the word "DROPBOX" in the subject and I'll add your email.  I also ask that you subscribe to this list using the link to the left (if you are on the blog), as it's the only way I can communicate with Dropbox users, if the need arises.

Here's how to find me:

InvestFeed/Twitter:  grems8544

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd