New Long Signal for Thursday, December 19th

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With the close of markets last evening my timer systems are indicating a "new long" condition for stocks:

The challenge that I have here, which makes this a weak signal, is that we did not get a "full confirmation" from the intermediate timer system, which means that although yesterday appeared strong, it really wasn't as strong as in the past (relative to other times the timer has switched).

For this reason I'm cautious, and will only be looking at stocks that are breaking out on higher volume, as measured intraday.

None of the Effective Volume (EV) Divergence (www.effectivevolume.com) stocks pass my screening for potentials to the upside, but as many of you know, my screening time frames are much longer than those used by Pascal, the administrator of that site. This being said, the following stocks have good price/EV behavior over multiple time frames and are all in some form of GGT-long status:

ITT
EBS
OMCL
EVR
FNGN
UA
BWS
GMED
GNTX
HOMB
PEGA
WETF
AMTD
CLB
DORM
TW
ADVS
EJ
HEI
HIMX
PACW
PBH
PVTB
AYI
HTHT
HURN
SFUN
WX
HZNP
SAVE
AFFX
PRFT
GIII
PII
HF
IGTE
NUS
DDD
LIOX
MA
PCLN
WDR
MANH
SWIR
VFC
WIT
CONN
GA
JAH

Better EV stocks, with respect to timing, are at the top of the list.

Regards,

pgd

GGT Intermediate Timer Signals Move to Cash 11-8-2013

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All,

With the close of markets last night on November 7th my intermediate timer has signaled a transition to CASH.  I'm unloading all positions that are underwater and that have reverted to a "New Cash" basis.  My holdings after these are cut free are:

DDD (+19%)
FSS (+6%)
GEL (-2%)
HZO (+11%)
ILMN (+13%)
PDFS (+30%)
SAVE (+3%)
USAT (-6%)
XRS (+21%)

GEL and USAT operate under different rules and I'm precluded from selling them until they transition to a GGT "New Cash" status.

This overall signal has been marginally profitable -- with today's sell I should be up only +0.98% with the closed positions.  Of course the remaining holdings will boost the final values, and if I closed everything today we'd be up about 9% on this last signal in total.

I'm raising cash to limit the damage, and you should consider doing the same.

Remember, do your own diligence, and remember that you are responsible for your actions -- I am not.

Regards,

Paul

Back long into the markets on 10/15/2013

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A quick note to say that I'm moving back into the markets.

My long candidates can be found here.  All of these stocks meet my "green screen" criteria; ask if you have questions:

Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Note that this is a partial list and is limited by screen capture/display.

All of these stocks are also "GGT Long, Affirmed Long, or New Long" in recommendations.

My strategy will be to buy stocks that are breaking out above yesterday's highs and that also show strong intra-day volume.

Happy hunting.

Regards,

pgd

Moving to Cash Effective Tuesday, October 8th

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Good evening all,

My Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) timing system has indicated a move to cash. Since my crystal ball is as good as yours, I'll be liquidating weaker positions on Tuesday, October 8th and will effectively be manually-managing what is left.

My LCR table is here: right-click on the table to open in a new window or tab:

The Elder timer section is on the left and you can see that it flashed a warning on 10/3, appeared to resolve itself on 10/4 in preparation of a deal in Washington, and today was quite poor.

The LCR slope indicators have been negative since Thursday last week, and even Friday's action appeared to be window dressing. With three consecutive days of falling LCR values on all measured time scales, the signal is clear that we should move to the sidelines.

The overall timer over the last month is here:

For those of you who are not familiar with my system, the performance has been relatively steady over the past (almost) 5 years:

So, to the sidelines I go, at least until I get a reversal in signal.

Stocks that are on my watch list are included in the following file:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3pcau45upfnjlkz/13OCT04-CombinedLeaders.txt

All of these stocks have favorable EV characteristics, as well as meeting my "green screen" (see previous posts).

Post your questions if you have any.

Regards,

pgd

Early signal to enter - 13JUL01

Good morning all,

With the close of markets on Monday, July 1st, I have a conditional entry signal for the long side. Conditional entries arise when not everything is confirming, but the primary timer system indicates that we should move long. This is the case.

The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) system is my primary timer. This system ranks, on a daily basis, over 3000 stocks in terms of their performance relative to adaptive moving averages. The system has been in play since September 2008 and is an intermediate to long-term timer system. 

Here is the most recent LCR table:

Right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Of significance here is that we've had three consecutive days of buying stocks, causing the slope of the LCR line to turn positive on a 2d, 3d, 5d, and 8d basis. Although the normal signal is to buy when the slope turns the 5d and 8d positive (e.g., this past Friday), this was the ONLY timer to indicate long this past Friday, and I feared another whipsaw. Monday's action was a bit of follow-through, and a number of internal indicators that I employ also started turning long (-ish), although this isn't a resounding "jump in with both feet". 

Let me re-iterate that -- not everything is moving long on the same day. We have a gradual thawing, but nothing to get too excited about.

The timer status table, which indicates a short-term, medium-term, and long-term timer state is below:

The short-term timer fired a few days ago when the thawing started to occur. I rarely follow this timer as it's too short for my liking.

The intermediate-term timer is just (conditionally) moving to the long side. The "mixed" state indicates that not everything that comprises this time is indicating long -- and indicating some caution. 

The long-term timer still indicates that we are in a bullish period.

I've updated my thrust list (see earlier thread) and the best stocks, relative to an EV-weighting methodology that I've developed, are located at the top. Nevertheless, ALL these stocks meet my "green screen" criteria and are candidates for longer-termed holdings.

As with all my musings, you are responsible for your own actions and I am not. Please take ownership for your decisions.

Regards,

pgd

Gotta Love Whipsaws -- Confirmed Move Back to Cash June 20

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With the close of markets on June 20th, my models have whipsawed completely back to the cash side.  I knew this signal was suspect, but as I indicated in my previous entry, I'm compelled to take every signal.

The damage has been quite light overall.  My underlying methodology when a new signal is generated is to do the following:

1) Update all candidates in terms of my "green screen".  I've presented the details elsewhere in this blog on what I look for -- I simply remove any stock that is not indicating "green" in my TradeStation scan and add new ones that meet this criteria.

2) I take this new list of "leaders" and I use a proprietary method of ranking 5d, 10d, 15d, and 20d Effective Volume.  I want EV to be indicating new buying in the stock, so 5d > 10d > 15d > 20d with all values positive.  This gives me a list from the best EV candidates to the "worse", although "worse" hasn't been proven as these are all good stocks from my list.

3) I ensure the stock is a GGT "Long"-rated stock:  New Long, Aff. Long, or Long.  Rare exceptions will allow me to review a CASH-indicated stock.

4) I buy on strength.  I typically place a BUY STOP order for the previous day's high price + 0.1%.  So if the stock was $20 high as of yesterday, I place a BUY STOP for $20.02.  If it was $150.00, the BUY STOP is $150.15.  The duration is for the next trading day only.  If the stop never triggers yet the stock is good as far as GGT is concerned I lower the BUY STOP and the process repeats, as long as my macro indicators are still showing an expanding market.

The last point is where we are now.  My macro indicators, namely the LCR (Long-Cash Ratio), have all moved negative in momentum.  I'm not buying stocks, I have no pending orders, and I'm exiting my holdings as GGT indicates.

Damage has been quite slight using this method.  I still have substantial gains in some of my positions, keeping the accounts above break even.  Nevertheless, I'm seeing the tides change, so I expect to be moving to Contra ETFs very soon.

Regards,

Paul

Model Signals Conditional Long Entry

Good day all,

A number of you have sent private notes asking how I'm doing and if I still post. The quick answer is that 1) yes, I'm quite well, and 2) there hasn't been much to post about, so my time is filled with other activities. Just so you are aware, aside from my day job, I've been actively seeking my birth parents (I'm adopted), and I've recently found their family lines using DNA and am working to narrow the field down to a few individuals, and 2) I'm in the process of selling my company and this is taking a considerable amount of attention. I continue to update GGT on a daily basis, post the files in the Dropbox, and keep abreast of the signals generated from my model. I've all but shut out all external noise from the talking heads, and I think my trading/investing is better for it.

With the close of markets today (June 18), my primary timers are indicating a conditional long entry. "Conditional" status is simply because not every timer is confirming the signal, but my primary one has fired and it is often more right than wrong, so here I am.

Here's the GGT Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) table:

Right click on the image to open it in a different tab or window.

The LCR has had two days of advancing into positive territory, and the transition of the 5d and 8d signals is generally a positive move, indicating that as a whole, the database is starting to see prices and volume move upward. This is a reliable signal in general, but in this state of QE-infinity all bets are off. Nevertheless, I've taken the most favorable stocks from this list and have entered conditional orders for Wednesday, and if they fill, they fill.

Here's my list: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gm1pmdowe3fwhf4/13Jun18-CombinedLeaders.txt 

These are sorted most favorable EV pattern descending, so BEAV sits on the top spot and it goes down from there. These are all "Green" stocks, meaning that they meet my tight screening criteria (covered elsewhere in this forum), and as you can see, the list is small as of right now because we've been in the throws of a consolidation.

I have no idea if this is a valid signal. With performance history as my guide, I'm taking this signal. Here's the performance of the timer since 11/2008:

These stats are compiled using the GGT index, which is mostly duplicated by investing in the IWM or VTI ETFs. I tend to invest in stocks with much higher beta than IWM or VTI, so my performance generally is better.

For those of you who subscribe to the Real Time Thrust Monitor at the Effective Volume site (www.effectivevolume.com), I've uploaded this latest list and you can get intra-day breakouts as they occur.

As always, do your diligence, and take ownership for your actions. 

Regards,

pgd