Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Continued Long; GGT New Long Stocks Look Interesting

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There is a combined GGT and GGT, LLC meeting this coming Saturday, February 12th, at 10:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. at the Burke Centre Library, 5935 Freds Oak Road, Burke, VA  22015.  Please RSVP in one of the GGT Yahoo! forums so that I can print an appropriate number of handouts.  I anticipate that there will be a Web-Ex that remote folks can call into and listen to the dialog as well as view the slides in real-time.


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Summary

  • Overall, indicators are bullish -- you should not consider shorting or contra ETFs
  • Volume was right at the 50d MA yesterday, which doesn't overly confirm the price strength.  Consider this a short-term warning.
  • The GGT Strength indicator, which operates much like Bollinger's %B, has just transitioned into "toppy" territory and I would not be surprised at a relaxation in the markets in the next day or two, but nothing sustained to the downside
  • GGT and the VTI (Vanguard Total Index ETF) are hitting all-time highs since this started in September 2008, and there is no reason they can't keep going upwards.
  • Our new indicator, the GGT Price Accumulator Change Oscillator, is right between the buy/do-not-buy zone at +2, unchanged from Friday's value.  Entering stocks now is more risky as prices have moved upward.  
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GGT New Long Stocks for Tuesday

There are 121 New Longs for Stocks.  Far too many to review one-by-one, so the first thing I do is remove all that are below $10Msh in $-Volume.  This leaves about 90.  I then remove any who's 13d/34d slopes are not positive -- these are in a downtrend overall, and momentum is not on our side.  This leaves about 40 to pick from.

After this, screen for short-term positive patterns using Effective Volume:
  • A riskier play is CEPH.  This stock reports earnings on Thursday, but has seen some serious accumulation over the last week..  For example, on Monday someone picked up 188K shares late in the session.  On Wednesday of last week someone picked up 350K shares right at noon.  On Tuesday of last week someone picked up 154K shares in one block.
  • BMY is ho-hum over the last week or so, but it saw a massive amount of buying in the last 15 minutes of the day yesterday, enough to cause LEV to move upward while the price decreased.  I always like this type of divergence.
  • DNDN has been under serious accumulation the past 3 days
  • PG saw a purchase yesterday morning of 620K shares, then another flurry of buying in the last 5 minutes of the day.  Price remained steady after the 620K purchase, while LEV continues to ratchet upward.  Lotsa purchasing on Friday too.
  •  DRYS has been under solid accumulation since last Wednesday.  Volume has been ratcheting upward, with clear buying on the dips.  Someone has bought nearly 600K shares in two purchases last Thursday just prior to the close.
  • AYI rose steadily yesterday in terms of LEV, and has been since last Thursday.
  • CTAS has nice price and LEV patterns, which have both been in an upward trend since 2/2.
  • UNFI saw some major purchases just after 11 am yesterday, and LEV continued to increase thru the day although price held steady after the purchases.  This is a good, stealthy pattern.
  • HRS has a SmEV / LEV divergence pattern, where the retail investor is dumping yet the institutional/big lot buyer is accumulating.  Serious accumulation in the afternoon yesterday, with price remaining stable.
  • NYX has been largely unremarkable, but saw a huge amount of buying in the last 15 minutes of the day.  
  • SNV has been on my radar for awhile, and the steady, regular accumulation of large blocks of stock make this one very appealing to me.
  • HOT reported a few days ago, and the leakage prior to earnings was amazing.  It sold off just after the release after gapping upward, but now that it has filled the gap it moved upward on Monday to the after-earnings levels, and LEV has been increasing steadily.
  • OEH saw LEV skyrocket in the last 15 minutes of the day but has been largely unremarkable prior to this.
  • MSCI has been on a LEV and price tear to the upside, with notable purchases on the +LEV side in the last few minutes of the day.
  • IRM rose concerning LEV and price in the last 30 minutes of the day, while SmEV didn't budge.  This is a good setup but it's 3.6% past my buy point.
  • DISCA has been under solid accumulation for the past 5 days, and it doesn't appear to be over, with a number of large block purchases on Monday.
  • STJ is another stock where the SmEV guy is jumping out yet the LEV side is accumulating.  SOmeone picked up over 500K shares at $41 last Wednesday, and the stock hasn't looked back since.
  • Many folks must think that the PIIGS situation has been resolved, at least from Ireland's perspective, as the buying yesterday in IRE was amazing.
  • MOTR has a leakage problem.  Significant LEV prior to Monday, with a major jump Monday morning, large block purchases just before 11 a.m.on Monday, then a flurry of buying just prior to the close.  MOTR reports earnings after the market today (2/8).

GGT New Long ETFs

  • XSD isn't as liquid as I like, with only $8Msh dollar-volume.  This being said, it's under significant accumulation over the last three days
  • IWS continues the inflow of monies to MidCaps, with a HUGE spike in LEV at the end of the day
  • Again, thin dollar volume for IGN, but solid accumulation the past few days while SmEV has sold off.
  • SLX is interesting in that it has not seen institutional buying like you would expect for an expanding economy, BUT, it's LEV side rocketed upwards yesterday more than any time in the past.
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Trading Plan for Tuesday
  • There are no changes to the Top 25 portfolios, so nothing to do there.  I'm watching JCC, SOXL, and XME for weakness, as their LEV has been dropping as the markets are going up
  • I'm waiting for a pullback to enter my personal positions into my TSP-proxy, which uses SPY, EFA, and VXF.  VXF is showing some weakness, but all three look good overall.
  • I anticipate no sell changes to the GGT, LLC world.  Note that a number of Conntor's TPS strategies fired with the close of markets last night so I'll enter those as determined by the GGT, LLC Strategy Document.  Note that FXE was a candidate for yesterday's entry, but I typically do not enter TPS strategies when the market is rising, only when it is falling.  Thus, today may not be a good day either for entry, as futures are indicated upward as I write this.
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Today is a a travel day for me, and I'll be in Ft. Worth through late Thursday night.  Blogging will be as my time allows.

Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please read the disclaimer located at the top left of this blog.  Continued following of my ramblings explicitly indicates your acceptance of the warnings and conditions stated in the disclaimer.

Regards,

pgd

Position Disclaimer:  as of the writing of this entry, I own / influence positions in the following equities:  AAPL, ACH, BGU, BTI, DIG, ERX, FAS, HPQ, FSFT, HSY, IEO, IYE, JJC, LULU, MVV, PALL, RIMM, SOXL, SSO, UPRO, UYG, UYM, VDE, VIT, WPI, XLE, XME