Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Starting to See More Cracks in the Bull Ice but ....

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Summary

  • The GGT Price Accumulator Change Oscillator tool is back in buy zone for today, so I have a green light to purchase securities.
  • Heathcare, Financials, IT, Telecom, Utilities, ADRs (in general), Technology (in general), Europe (in general) all are good on the weekly but are cracking on the daily.  We need to keep one foot at the door with these groups...
  • Consumer Staples has cracked on the weekly and is looking poor on the daily.  This isn't good for a sector that led the FinViz charge last week.  This is a clear warning sign that there is no strength here.
  • Precious metals look terrible on the weekly but are showing strength on the daily...  

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GGT New Long ETFs -- There are none worth considering today.

GGT New Long Stocks

Yesterday was another incremental up day for the GGT stocks, with the database sneaking upwards in the long-cash ratio +6% to 1.841, and price moving up +0.49% on lower-than-average volume.  An expanding database is good -- stocks are appreciating -- so here is my watch list for today:

  • URRE is starting a new LEV pattern on volume that was 60% over the 50d MA.  Big block buying -- 100K blocks was normal throughout the day.
  • PH started a new LEV accumulation pattern 5 days ago and hasn't looked back.  Price decreased yesterday while LEV stayed constant.
  • LLNW is a prime example of leakage before earnings.  Give it a look.
  • SFY is a company I've liked for a while, and the LEV pattern started diverging 3 days ago and has been steadily increasing.  It ended the day strong on volume that was 20% over normal.
  • MAR announced earnings last evening, beating EPS and REV, and has guided higher, with the drop of their timeshare unit.  I expect them to bump up nicely today, so probably too late to move in, as they are 1.0% above my buy point.
  • CL had significant block buying yesterday, but ended the day on lower volume but significantly higher LEV levels.  On the fence with this one, but worth watching.
  • ** TIN has a beautiful lower-left, upper-right LEV pattern over the last 5 days.  So far in the list, this is the most consistent chart pattern for LEV.
  • AMD is a chip maker, and the last three days of buying have been solid and notable.  AMD is 2% above my buy zone.
  • STP is in my industry in which I work, and they are a good company.  Someone else thinks so too, because the LEV pattern has been increasing steadily the past 3 days.
  • ** JBL is an example of *something* going on in the last 15 minutes of the day -- they were 22% over normal volume, Elder patterns look beautiful, and LEV shot up like a rocket. 
  • YGI scares me simply because it's in China, but abnormal buying on Friday, with follow-through buying on Monday is notable.  LEV has been increasing steadily while SmEV is constant.  Volume was up 37% over normal, and the Elder patterns look great.
  • ** HLX is another lower-left, upper-right LEV pattern that looks great.  Volume buying last Wednesday at the end of the day triggered the LEV move.
  • SYNA is risky, in that the LEV divergence just started, but notable in that SmEV is selling off while LEV is increasing.  Characteristic, but early "V" pattern that I like.
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Trading Plan for Tuesday

HSY, a GGT, LLC holding, just fired New Cash so a 1% TSL will be placed on it and it will be cast to the wind.

SI, another GGT, LLC holding, just whipsawed for the 3rd time in as many days, but the LEV is rock solid and I can't find a reason to unload, so I'll watch, but not act unless it starts diving underwater (more).

The stocks above have great patterns, so I'll enter as the setups allow.

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Remember, you are responsible for your actions, and I am not.  Please do your own work.

Position disclaimer:  I own or influence positions in the following equities:  AAPL, AF, AGCO, BGU, BTI, COST, CTXS, DAG, DBA, DIG, ERX, ESV, EWM, EWS, EWT, FAS, HPQ, HRB, HSY, IEO, IEZ, ILMN, ITB, IYE, KCG, LULU, MVV, OIL, PCLN, QLD, RFMD, RIMM, RJA, SI, SOXL, SRX, SSO, SWI, SWY, TNA, TQQQ, TYH, UCO, UPRO, UYG, UYM, VDE, WAT, WLT, XLE, XME, XOP, EFA, SPY, VXF.