Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Bullish and Toppy ...

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Summary
  • Even though yesterday didn't appear to be a great day, the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) of the GGT universe barely nudged down.  This is bullish.
  • Confirming the strength of the LCR barely budging is our new indicator, the GGT Price Accumulator Change Oscillator.  This tool moved upward from -8 to 0, indicating that we're neutral in our signal to buy securities.  Put another way, buying securities today is more risky than it was yesterday.  So, the indices were down but the database was strong.  If you didn't buy yesterday, you best be selective today.
  • The GGT price index fell -0.51% on volume that was only +6% above the 50d MA.  Yawn.
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GGT New Long ETFs

There is only one worth considering, which shows just how toppy we are in the markets.  IBB, the NASDAQ Biotech, has flashed a New Long signal.  Unfortunately, there are mixed signals with this one, as someone sold 500K shares at 16:01 last Thursday @ $93, which obviously is a $40M+ transaction.  Buying/selling yesterday was somewhat neutral, but at 12:32 pm someone wanted out and they unloaded 173K shares, with no regard to hiding the transaction (no purchases in the same minute to dither the bid/ask).  I'm watching this one only.

GGT New Long Stocks
  • KR, Kroger, has a terrible Large Effective Volume (LEV) pattern and is unremarkable.  This being said, someone picked up 1M shares at 11:58 a.m. @ $22, then turned around and did it again at 12:25 p.m.  At the end of the day LEV and TEV skyrocked while price barely budged during heavy purchasing.
  • NUE is a new LEV breakout and is in an industry that is moving upwards.
  • FDO is up 26% in the premarket, so this squawks of a buyout.  Of interest is the periodicity of the buying pattern yesterday -- almost every 75 minutes someone picked up 50K shares at $43, and I count 8 such events, so $16M in transactions and someone will make 25% on this this morning.  Nice coin.
  • BPZ is seeing a considerable amount of LEV accumulation over the last week.
  • GENZ saw huge LEV accumulation mid-day, and the price skyrocked and stayed there.  Something is going on here.
  • CMCSA is a prime example of news leakage going into earnings.
  • SCHN is another steel play like NUE that is seeing solid LEV accumulation but price was steady.  The steel industry moved upward to position #8 out of #152 in the GGT universe, so the industry group is strong  Metals industry, which is where SCHN lies, is now #29.
  • QSFT is a new LEV breakout on higher prices.
  • CMC is ANOTHER steel/metals play that signaled New Long, and is also experiencing significant LEV accumulation.
  • BMRN is a biotech (look at the only ETF that triggered today worthy of our screens), and someone bought over 700K shares last Wednesday, before the close, at $26.  LEV took off in the last 5 minutes last night...
  • LOW has a nice lower-left/upper right LEV pattern, with significant volume that was above average for yesterday.
  • X is ANOTHER steel company that just fired New Long.  Get it folks?  Steel is hot.  LEV is a beautiful lower-left/upper right pattern.
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Trading Plan for Wednesday

I deployed a considerable amount of capital yesterday, so today will be spent locking in gains (if there are any) and pruning the weakest stocks from my holdings.  Today should be an interesting day.

My 1% TSLs on SI and HSY are still active, as these stocks are holding on despite their "New Cash" recommendation yesterday.

A new purchase yesterday, URRE, moved to New Cash from New Long, so we'll most likely do the 1% TSL thing there too, although it will be painful.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, and I am not.  Please read the disclaimer found on the left side of this blog when you first started reading, and continued following of my ramblings implies your consent to the terms listed in that disclaimer.

Regards,

pgd

Position disclosure: as of this writing, I own/influence positions in the following equities:  AAPL, AF, AGCO, BGU, BTI, COST, CTSH, CTXS, DAG, DBA, DIG, ERX, ESV, EWM, EWS, EWT, FAS, HLX, HPQ, HSY, IEO, IEZ, ILMN, ITB, IYE, JASO, KCG, LULU, MVV, OIL, PCLN, QLD, RFMD, RIMM, RHA, SI, SOXL, SRX, SSO, SWI, SWY, TIN, TNA, TQQQ, TYH, UCO, UPRO, URRE, UYG, UYM, VDE, WAT, WLT, XLE, XME, XOP, EFA, SPY, VXF