Monday, April 4, 2011

Abbreviated Summary for Monday, April 4

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There is no face-to-face meeting this week, as I will be traveling to Knoxville on Wednesday - Sunday.  Please check the Yahoo! group poll and let me know the best dates for an electronic meeting, either next week or the following week.

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Summary

  • GGT volume seems to be returning, compared to the 50d MA.  Last week we observed trading volume at -20%, -19%, -9%, -6%, and -2% on the day-over-day basis.  I does appear that participants are rejoining the party, albeit slowly.
  • The slopes of pricing moving averages are all bullish on time frames from 5d through 65d.  This means that day-over-day and on multiple time frames you are making money in your accounts.
  • Surprisingly to me, the price accumulator change oscillator moved DOWN on Friday to -14, it's lowest possible reading.  This indicates that reward/risk levels are favorable for entry on the long side of the market for Monday.
  • The short-term Long-Cash-Ratio Change timer, and it's sister the VTI timer, are both long and have been since 3/18.  It's too late to chase this signal, so I would wait.
  • The intermediate-termed Elder Force Index timer is long, and has been since 3/21, although it hit a rough patch on 3/22 and 3/23 and took some time to sort itself out.  Overall, it is safer to purchase stocks on the long side -- shorting will just get you in trouble right now.
  • The Long-Cash Ratio closed Friday over 2.0, the highest level since 2/18.  This is bullish overall.
  • The slopes of the Long-Cash Ratio moving averages are all bullish on time frames from 5d through 65d.  The database is expanding in terms of the numbers of stocks with a long recommendation, and this is a much better time to buy stocks.
  • A bit of a crack in the bull ice is simply that the strength oscillator is at 86.9% and indicates that fuel is running out.  I wouldn't be at all surprised at some form of a pullback this week, but today probably isn't the day it will start.
Stay the course on the longer-term, and on the shorter term, simply be mentally prepared for a bit of a pullback for a day or two while folks lock in profits.  I already did on Friday ...

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Trading Plan for Monday

I raised cash on Friday given uncertainty of holding over the weekend (Japan, oil, Middle East), banking over 1.5% on my portfolios for the week, so I'm looking to get back into the market.  I'll enter positions that look attractive and are breaking out but will retain 50% cash in my portfolios, allowing these new positions to move upward yet pullback sometime this week, which will permit another entry.

Regards,

pgd