Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Slope of the 13d EMA of the Long-Cash Ratio Now Negative

With the close of markets on Monday, January 28th, the 13d EMA of the LCR has transitioned negative. All of the slopes -- 2d through the 13d -- are now negative and have a bearish acceleration downward.

The LCR is a measure of the internals of the market -- making higher prices on a lower LCR value means that a disproportionate amount of stocks are doing the work, and as Pascal noted today (Daily Commentary, http://www.effectivevolume.com), higher prices were not confirmed with a higher money flow (just the opposite).

Here's the LCR table:

As with all my images, right click on the figure to open in a new tab or window.

The raw LCR values are on the far left; when these are decreasing it historically has not been a good time to enter stocks, good EV patterns notwithstanding.

If you have trouble visualizing the table, here are the curves of the same:

Although we are still in a long-term uptrend (LCR 65d EMA still positive), the accelerations of the EMAs (right side of the chart) are negative, and so we're slowing on all major time frames. As I said in my other post, "Let's be careful out there".

Finally, I think the following graph needs no supplemental commentary -- it's a graph of the number of "long" rated stocks in my database: