Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Update for Wednesday, January 8th

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I continue to be bullish on the market.

From a cumulative tick perspective, and as indicated by Pascal yesterday (www.effectivevolume.com), algo buying ceased the past two days but the trend remains intact and we keep advancing. There are no crossings from above in the moving averages, so there is no weakness, just coasting:


Right click on the image to open in a new tab or window.

Further, the middle plot of this chart shows a "threshhold" accumulator that I've built that looks for sustained buying/selling, and right now is set to 250 stocks per minute in either direction. When we get greater than 250 stocks on all markets being bought/sold, we increment the counter accordingly. You can see for the past two days that the counter has been relatively flat, indicating the lack of buying/selling. You can see 3 and 4 days ago the impact of sustained buying -- a healthy uptrend.

This chart alone should give you some confidence.

From a GGT pricing perspective, we have had a short, 2d period of weakness develop in the slopes, and there clearly has been some price deceleration over the past 6 days, with three of them clearly negative:


In context, I'm not worried about the 2d price slope turning negative, but I do think it bears watching.

With respect to GGT Long-Cash Ratio analysis, all slopes are green (positive), and this means that the database continues to expand in terms of the number of stocks participating in this bull cycle:


We had our first day of deceleration on Tuesday, 1/8, but we are significantly above the 0-line in slopes on all measured time frames so the database has room to move.

Consequently, with the Cumulative Tick, Price Slope Model, and LCR Slope Models all indicating relatively bullish, I see no reason to even think about shorts, despite being overbought on many metrics.

My leader's list is available here and it continues to perform well in this market. Here's the most recent graph:



The green on the 2d Force Index indicates that today could be a good day for re-entry to the markets if prices take out their previous highs.

Finally, my timers are all green:



I'm nearly 100% invested in all accounts. I have no positions that are underwater, having sold them as GGT flashed "New Cash" within recent days. My holdings are listed daily in the Dropbox file for stocks, on the dashboard tab.  If you would like to subscribe to my Dropbox folder, drop me an email with "dropbox" in the subject line, a brief description of who you are in the body, and I'll send you an invite.  Send the request to pduncan [at] vt dot edu

Regards,

pgd