Friday, January 8, 2016

Confirmed Exit

With the close of markets on Thursday, January 7th, all signals are to move to the sidelines.  This signal was confirmed by the Cumulative Tick:

Click on the image for a larger version.

I wrote about this pattern yesterday, and the sustained selling on the NYSE caused the CT to cross below the longest moving average, pulling all of them downward in terms of slope.  This is a free-fall condition for my system and history indicates to get out of positions.

I've set my exit criteria and will be out of the positions if they hit their stops.  For those of you subscribing to the real-time alerts, you'll get automatic notification when the positions are exited.

For the non-Collective2 accounts, I will set a 1% trailing stop loss, GTC, effective after 9:45 a/ET and will forget about these positions until they either 1) reverse to a "New Long" recommendation or are sold.

For the Collective2 accounts, I will set a 1% stop loss, GTC, effective after 9:45 a/ET and that will be adjusted upward (never downward) nightly until triggered.

The Greenfield Dividend portfolio, which strives to maintain income at the expense of portfolio equity value, will remain invested.  Stocks that are "Cash" rated will be liquidated and that money will be deployed in new equities as soon as my LCR indicators indicate a reversal is occurring.

The Long-Cash Ratio fell hard yesterday:

Click on the image for a larger version.

As you can see on the left, the LCR fell 27% from the previous day's value, and relative to all down days tracked since 2008, was the 95th strongest down day.  This places yesterday's selling action in the top 10% of all down days, which is significant and with all my indicators, actionable.

The sea of red in the middle and right sides of the table, which are explained in previous entries, simply tell us that this is not a buying market.  Certainly, the right side of the table still shows that the "knife is falling".

Strategy for Friday, January 8th

My strategy for today is relatively simple.

1) no buying
2) closing all portfolios using a TSL or fixed stop and selling those positions that hit their stops
3) flying my family to Minneapolis for my grandmother's 91st birthday on Saturday

My next post will be Sunday.


New Meeting Announcement

We will be holding a face-to-face meeting on 2/13/2016 for all interested parties at the following location:

Burke Centre Library
Room: Burke Centre Meeting Room 116K
Address: 5935 Freds Oak Rd, Burke, VA 22015
Library Phone:(703) 249-1520
Time: 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM
Meeting Start Time: 10:00 AM

I will attempt to stream the meeting audio, and perhaps video, as per past meetings, via GotoMeeting.  Attendance via GotoMeeting is limited to the first 25 call-ins.  The ability to do this is completely controlled by the library and I have no say in Internet access.


As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.