Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Sitting on the Sidelines on Wednesday

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Summary

The Long-Cash Ratio continued to fall with Tuesday's action, keeping the status quo.  Downward forces are abating though, so the selling is not as severe as previous days.  I'm sticking to the sidelines for Wednesday.

Long-Cash Ratio

Click on the image to enlarge

Tuesday was the second consecutive day of single-digit LCR values, indicating that out of a database of over 3000 stocks, less than 10% are worthy of consideration here for medium-to-long-term buying.

The left side of the table shows that the new LCR value is 8.9% and is falling.  The LCR has fell every day this new year, and this alone is remarkable.  Don't fool yourself though -- it can continue to fall.

The left/middle portion of the table is a sea of red.  The LCR moving averages, all with different time scales, all have negative slopes.  The moving averages are all pointing downward, again, not a buying environment.

The right side of the table is showing some continued abatement of the downward slopes of the LCR.  The emergence of green, and the completely green row on the bottom of the table shows that the day-over-day rate of descent is slowing (which is good).  Continued green on the right will lead to green on the left.

We're not there yet, so I'm taking Wednesday off.

Cumulative Tick

I tweeted the following chart mid-day Tuesday:

Click on the image to enlarge

It basically shows that the upward movement in the major indices were being sold on the NYSE, and that the "rally" was false.

Here's the end-of-day chart:

Click on the image to enlarge

After the mid-day peak we sold off until about 3 p/ET, where we then saw some buying stepping in, offsetting the selling (horizontal white line from 3 p/ET).

With the severely downward-pointing moving averages, and the white trace (instantaneous cumulative tick) well under all it's moving averages, nothing here says to buy.

Again, I'm taking Wednesday off.  Risk is wayyyy to high, even for short-term trading.

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New Meeting Announcement

We will be holding a face-to-face meeting on 2/13/2016 for all interested parties at the following location:

Burke Centre Library
Room: Burke Centre Meeting Room 116K
Address: 5935 Freds Oak Rd, Burke, VA 22015
Library Phone:(703) 249-1520
Time: 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM
Meeting Start Time: 10:00 AM

I will attempt to stream the meeting audio, and perhaps video, as per past meetings, via GotoMeeting.  Attendance via GotoMeeting is limited to the first 25 call-ins.  The ability to do this is completely controlled by the library and I have no say in Internet access.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd