Friday, January 15, 2016

One Day Does not Make a Trend

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Summary

The indexes all skyrocked upward on Thursday and my two primary indicators, the Cumulative Tick and the Long-Cash Ratio table both indicate some abatement of the downward move.  It is way too early to determine if this is sustainable -- but we are very oversold so the odds are in favor of some movement upward.

I intend to sit on the sidelines Friday.

Observations:


Click on the image to enlarge

The Cumulative Tick started to move upward around 12:30 p/ET and although it showed a bit of weakness into the close, it ended the day higher than it started.  There was net buying on the NYSE.

The white line is below the downward-sloping red trend line, so this is not a good market for buying stocks.


Click on the image to enlarge

The LCR fell to the 49th lowest value (out of 1857 observations) ever recorded, ending at 0.112,
which is a slight fall from Wednesday on really high volume.  We have had 10 consecutive days of the LCR dropping on a day-over-day basis, which is uncharacteristic for the markets.  We sold off fast and hard.

The middle shows a sea of red, indicating that I should plan to do nothing today.

The right side shows a solid row of accelerating to the upside, which is the first step in flashing an entry signal.  We need many more like this to get us out of the deep oversold territory that we are in.

I intend to be safe and not do anything today.
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Here's how to find me:

Stocktwits/Twitter:  grems8544

Greenfield Dividends: https://www.collective2.com/details/94780986

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New Meeting Announcement

We will be holding a face-to-face meeting on 2/13/2016 for all interested parties at the following location:

Burke Centre Library
Room: Burke Centre Meeting Room 116K
Address: 5935 Freds Oak Rd, Burke, VA 22015
Library Phone:(703) 249-1520
Time: 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM
Meeting Start Time: 10:00 AM

I will attempt to stream the meeting audio, and perhaps video, as per past meetings, via GotoMeeting.  Attendance via GotoMeeting is limited to the first 25 call-ins.  The ability to do this is completely controlled by the library and I have no say in Internet access.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd