Thursday, March 3, 2011

Top 25 Portfolio Update for Thursday, March 3rd

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There is NO face-to-face meeting in March; I'm obligated with family-centric things on our normal weekend.  I will be conducting a WebEx sometime during the month, so stay tuned.


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Summary

  • There are no changes to the GGT-TSP portfolio.  Stay the course.
  • The Elder Market Capitalization Favoritism (EMCF) Portfolio will sell QCOM at a 8.8% gain today because it has failed the Elder FI(13) tests as of the close of markets on 3/2.
  • Our Price Change tool is sitting at +14, the highest reading possible, and is telling us that purchasing stocks today is doing so in a high risk/low return environment.  The time to purchase stocks was yesterday, when the tool indicated a value of -14.  There really is little exception to this, so if you play today, ensure you have strong momentum behind you to boost your 1-day gains.
  • The GGT Short-Term LCR Change timer transitioned to CASH with the close of markets yesterday. 
  • The Elder 13d Force Index timer is giving a MIXED (neither CASH nor LONG) reading.  This results because of a mismatch between using different calculation methods to arrive at the same result -- when they do not match, we need to pay attention.
  • The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR) FELL yesterday, indicating that the database is not participating in this expansion.  It is not a good idea to purchase stocks when the LCR is falling, period.
  • The strongest GGT industries that are appreciating in STRENGTH (not necessarily price) are:

    Enrg-O&G Drilling (15 stocks in group)
    Health-HMO (13)
    Enrg-Coal (11)
    Enrg-Other (4)
    Enrg-O&G Services (26)
    Enrg-O&G Refining (21)
    Enrg-O&G Equip (16)
    Comp-Heath (8)
    Media-Book/New/Mag (9)
    Retail-Major Chains (6)

    To determine which stocks are in each group, log in to the GGT Yahoo! site and download the most recent "ALL" files (presently February 28th upload), and go to the "By Industry" group page.  Note that the industry group above corresponds to what is provided in Quotes Plus / HGSI.
  • I note with interest that as of the close of Wednesday's market, Precious Metals, as determined by $DJGSP, has confirmed a LONG trend on the weekly chart.  Gold, Silver have already confirmed a few weeks ago, and Palladium is about to confirm.
  • I note with interest that as of the close of Wendesday's market, the Financials, as measured by a couple of ETFs, most notably FAS (the 3x Direxion ETF), has confirmed a downtrend.  Pay heed.
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Top 25 ETF Updates

The Top 25 ETF Portfolio, which is now the Top 22 ETF portfolio, continues to perform well in this market.  Here are the following actions for today:

Buy:
EFV
FCG
IGN
IJJ
JJG
RJI

Sell:
DAG
IEZ
IVE
IYE
MVV
RJA
UYM

Hold:
BGU
DBA
DBC
DIG
DRN
ERX
IEO
IGE
IXC
OIH
SSO
UPRO
URE
VDE
XLE
XOP

In terms of holdings and strength, here are the gains/losses for each position, going into the market on Thursday:



Some positions are not listed above because they were sold as they moved to "New Cash" recommendations over the past week.

The portfolio has a beta of 1.6 (60% more volatile than the S&P500).  The portfolio is up 12.2% since inception on 11/26/10, and is outperforming the S&P500 by +2.42% over the same period.  I've not calculated Calmar Ratio nor I have calculated mathematical expectation.

The ranking of the top 25 ETFs, from strongest to weakest (which is still very strong), is as follows:



Here are the color codes:
  • Yellow:  unchanged from the previous week
  • Bright Green:  moved up in relative ranking compared to last week
  • Red:  fell in relative ranking compared to last week
  • white: new addition to the top 25 list compared to last week (not in last week's top 100)
  • dark green:  was in the prior week's top 100 and transitioned up into the top 25.
If you are not participating in this portfolio I would not jump in right now with the levered ETFs, but the 1x ETFs should be all right.  I'd wait for a day of pullback before entering.

I am trading this in a personal account with $30K, since 1/14/11, and the account is up $700.37 in locked-in gains (positions that have been sold) and is sitting on another $324 gains in open positions.  The positions that will be closed today have the following gains/losses going into the open Thursday morning:
  • DAG:  +7.56%
  • IEZ: +0.91%
  • IVE:  already sold
  • IYE:  already sold
  • MVV: already sold
  • RJA:  +4.88%
  • UYM:  already sold
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Trading Plan for Thursday

I'm sitting defensively in the GGT, LLC portfolio, with positions in Gold & Silver (GG, GLD), a bond fund (TIP), Oil & Gas (NXY, DWSN), a travel company (EXPE), tobacco (BTI), and the Swiss Franc (FXF).  EXPE has the worse stats, but the Large Effective Volume (LEV) is impressive and diverging from price, so I'm going to hang in there unless it hits my 2ATR stop.

I intend to move ETFs around according to the changes in the Top 25 ETF portfolio listed above.  I do not use stops in this portfolio, due mainly to the wide diversification.

Although futures are up almost +0.80% as I write this, I do not intend to move into new long positions in the market at this time, but may add to existing positions if they continue to show strength.  I take this action due mainly to the GGT Price Accumulator Change tool indicating that the reward/risk ratios are poor for entry today.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, and I am not.  Continued following of my blog indicates your acceptance of the "Disclaimer", found on the masthead at the upper left of this blog.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd