Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Watching the Markets Today -- No New Purchases for Moi

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Summary

  • The GGT Price Accumulator Change tool indicates a reading of +12, which is in the red zone and thus, we should not purchase equities today, as the chance of decline beyond today is high.
  • The LCR Change Timer signaled LONG with the close of markets on Monday, February 28th.  This occurred because we had two relatively strong days in terms of long-cash ratio movement to the upside.  The first bullet notwithstanding, this timer indicates that we can move long on a very short-term basis into broad-based ETFs.
  • The Elder 13d Force Index timer has moved solidly long, confirming Friday's move.  This is telling us that the up-trend is intact and that we can purchase stocks long (1st bullet not withstanding).
  • The slopes of the EMAs on the Long-Cash Ratio are all still pointing down, and have been since the close of 2/22.  This is worrisome, as it shows a lack of strength in this present up leg.  This means that the "tide is NOT lifting all boats", and that you need to be pretty good at stock selection in order to pick the winners.

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I'm not posting GGT New Longs (stocks or ETFs) that have solid Effective Value patterns today -- the GGT Price Accumulator Change tool is indicating a very poor reward/risk ratio for the next couple of days so if you're not in your positions, then it's too late for this present wave (in my opinion).

I have posted a full set of files, in zip format, within the Files section of the GreekGodTrading Yahoo! group.  If you are a member, you can download the file and poke around.  If you are not a member, send a note to:

GreekGodTrading-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

and indicate in the message who you are and why you want to join the group, and one of the moderators will let you in.

If you want to take your trading to the next level, then get a subscription to Effective Value, and tell Pascal that you heard about him from GGT.

Note that the "DashboardEV" file in the Yahoo! group is a joint file that links GGT stocks with Effective Value stocks -- you'll need to educate yourself at the EV site to understand the significance of the correlations.

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Trading Plan for Tuesday

My Elder Market Capitalization Favoritism portfolio at Marketocracy is only 80% invested and I'm adding to the winning positions to become 100% invested.  This should take place before 10 a.m.  A view of the equity curve for this portfolio is here, and while underperforming the reference indexes since inception, has been steadily improving with the addition of an Effective Volume requirement on the day of purchase.  This is the primary strategy of the GGT, LLC group and I'm constantly looking at how to improve the performance.

My personal account will sell CNXT and SOLR in the Top25 Stock group, as these have moved to GGT New Cash recommendations as of the close of Monday's data.  Of course I will update the Marketocracy portfolio, and a view of the equity curve is here.  This has been underperforming the reference indexes, but it is improving as I filter on Effective Volume on the day of purchase.

There are no changes to the Top25 ETF group, which is presently holding 21 ETFs.  A link to the equity curve at Marketocracy can be found here, and this portfolio continues to outperform all reference indexes.  This is also real in that I have committed about $30K to this.

If today is a good, solid, day up on volume, I'll most likely unload any position that does not participate, as this indicates weakness in the underlying stock.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your homework, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd