Tuesday, May 31, 2016

May 28th Weekend Review

.
If you are on the blog page in a browser, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did at the beginning of May.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My latest newsletter is at this link:  https://goo.gl/i2kXXf 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Outlook: new up trend, weak volume
Short-term:  Bullish
Intermediate-term:  Bullish
Long-term:  Bullish

Overall:  we are in an uptrend, although I would not be surprised at a slight pullback and dip.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LCR Table

Click on the image to enlarge.

Friday marks the 3rd day of a new uptrend.  If you look at the image above, and look at previous blogs where I have provided "the ideal setup", you see that the positive movement of the 8d slope (it has a heavy dark set of lines around it on the table above) has been green for the past 3 days.

We are in good shape for remaining "long" as long as the green keeps increasing on the middle/left side of the table.

Cumulative Tick

Click on the image to enlarge.

Thursday and Friday saw weak but continued buying on the NYSE.  I've covered the plot above extensively in this blog and my newsletters -- suffice to say everything here is bullish.

Strategy

I'm presently holding the following across 3 TradeStation accounts:


All stock positions are above their 21d EMA so are "safe" for Monday's action.

I may Buy-to-Close (BTC) the INTU PUT if my Open P/L goes above 80%, just to capture the premium.  In general this applies to any of the PUT positions, since we are more than two weeks out from expiration.

As far as new purchases are concerned, I am looking to enter new positions in stocks with both volume and price breakout action.  I have linked automated alerts to my Twitter account -- grems8544 -- and if you notify your phone or email on my tweet you'll see the alert roughly at the same time I do.  Use this as a proxy for my cell phone/email notification service which is presently filled.  Here's what it looks like for a Price-Volume Break Out:

This was the alert sent out just before the close on Friday.  Here is how to break this down:

  • UBSH -- the symbol of the equity of interest
  • !BO -- the alert strategy name, in this case, Price-Volume BreakOut
  • 27.32 >= PrevHi 27.08 -- I require that today's price be greater than the previous close.
  • 0.14MM shares -- the stock is projected to trade at least 140,000 shares.  If this occurs late in the day, then there is a great chance of it being true.  If it occurs early in the morning, it needs to be watched.  This uses a complex algorithm to project the day's volume based on the early volume action. 
  • / 106% is the amount of projected volume above the highest volume level, of the previous 10 down days (not previous 10 days, they have to be DOWN days).  We want buying volume to be larger than the greatest short-term selling volume.
  • 5/27/2016 4:00:08 PM -- the signal occurred at the close (rare, but it does happen -- obviously).
My typical approach is to enter a smaller, say 10 or 20% position when the signal fires, and if the stock gains and looks constructive on a chart, then I add to it.

As far as selling, this rule uses the 2x21d close as well as GGT "Sell" (aka "Cash") methods.

This next display shows the leaders from last week who fired alerts, just so you can see history:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The days are most recent (left) to oldest (right).  If you choose to backtest this method, use an entry price that is 1.001 x the previous day's high for entry, which would have been the alert price.  If a "1" appears then the volume was larger than any previous 10 down-day volumes.

I will also be buying from a different strategy, and may/may not alert you to all my purchases.  Some of this is manual, some of it automatic.  I have no issues with you seeing my automated trades and alerts.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  The stocks I have listed here are not recommendations -- they are seeds for you to do your own research.

Regards,

pgd


Regards,