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Outlook: short-term improving, prone to failure
Short-term: Continued "up" progress. Completed Day 3, depending on how you count.
Intermediate-term: New Up Trend
Long-term: Uptrend intact but not accelerating upward
The weekly trends are down OR MIXED up/down in all the major indices. The NAS and Russell 2000 *just* went to mixed mode.
The daily trends are all newly up.
When the longer-termed trends are opposing (or at least not fully confirming) the daily trends, being fully invested in the markets simply is risky. New entries are prone to failure.
- The LCR has moved +22% upwards on a day-over-day comparison. This is the 195th strongest up day in almost 2000 observations, placing it in the upper 10% of all up days. Given where it occurs (after a significant down period), I'm paying attention to the long side of the market.
- The 2d, 3d, and 5d slopes are positive and pointing upwards. The 8d almost made it -- and as many of you are aware, this is my trigger for broad entry into the markets. I saw this coming with the number of alerts that were sent out yesterday and started acquiring positions throughout the day.
- On the right, we have had 3 solid days of upward acceleration. The right side looks really good.
- The top pane shows the S&P 500 (green) and the group behavior of the Leaders list (blue). The S&P 500 has fallen about -2% or so over the past month; the Leaders list, in hindsight, as grown a large amount.
- The middle pane shows the daily price series of the Leaders list. The green line is the 21d EMA, the yellow line the 50d EMA, and the red line the 200d EMA.
- The bottom pane shows volume and the 50d MA on volume.
I note that we are at a critical failure point -- we are early in a newly emerging trend. The stocks I am invested in and am considering could easily move against me, so it is important that I review my holdings and potential new purchases every evening. You should consider doing the same thing -- turning points can be dangerous to our portfolios.