Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Hard selling today - March 10th close

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Timer Table:



No changes today.  Both the short-term and intermediate-termed timers are in cash, and the long-term timer is still indicating that some equity exposure is prudent.

My target cash level is 75%.  I'm not there yet, but today helped.

Long-Cash Ratio Table:

Click on the table to open in a new tab or window.

As far as the LCR index is concerned, today was a very hard sell-off, with a 24% change lower in the index.  Out of all down days since September 2008 this one ranked at 108th, which is remarkable.

Still a sea of red on the right side of the table, so there is little chance of a major reversal on Wednesday.  This being stated, note that we've fallen quickly in a very short period of time, and we are presently entering oversold territory.  A short-term reversal up, out of oversold territory, would not be a major surprise for me.

Individual Index Cumulative Tick:


Click on the table to open in a new tab or window.

When we look at the cumulative tick on stocks that make up the individual indexes, we see that there was little confidence at the end of the day.  The S&P500, the Russell 2000, and the NASDAQ sold off (net) in the last 30 minutes, which is not a good starting position for Wednesday.

Cumulative Tick:


Click on the table to open in a new tab or window.

The cumulative tick chart shows that again, we have a large number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows, and we had a stronger down day in the overall cumulative tick.

The un-weighted white trace is well below the averaged red trace in the bottom pane -- I'm not buying stocks, period.

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Strategy:  I continue to raise cash to my 25% invested / 75% cash target.  I'm not buying.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd