Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Hard selling today - March 10th close

Timer Table:

No changes today.  Both the short-term and intermediate-termed timers are in cash, and the long-term timer is still indicating that some equity exposure is prudent.

My target cash level is 75%.  I'm not there yet, but today helped.

Long-Cash Ratio Table:

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As far as the LCR index is concerned, today was a very hard sell-off, with a 24% change lower in the index.  Out of all down days since September 2008 this one ranked at 108th, which is remarkable.

Still a sea of red on the right side of the table, so there is little chance of a major reversal on Wednesday.  This being stated, note that we've fallen quickly in a very short period of time, and we are presently entering oversold territory.  A short-term reversal up, out of oversold territory, would not be a major surprise for me.

Individual Index Cumulative Tick:

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When we look at the cumulative tick on stocks that make up the individual indexes, we see that there was little confidence at the end of the day.  The S&P500, the Russell 2000, and the NASDAQ sold off (net) in the last 30 minutes, which is not a good starting position for Wednesday.

Cumulative Tick:

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The cumulative tick chart shows that again, we have a large number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows, and we had a stronger down day in the overall cumulative tick.

The un-weighted white trace is well below the averaged red trace in the bottom pane -- I'm not buying stocks, period.


Strategy:  I continue to raise cash to my 25% invested / 75% cash target.  I'm not buying.


Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.