Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Short-term timer fires LONG - March 16 Close

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Summary:  The short-term timer, which is based on the long-cash ratio, has moved to the long side.  I'm moving from a 75% cash position to a 50% cash position.

Timer Table:



Commentary:  All I can say is that this is relatively strong in terms of change, but I have no idea if it will last.  You'll read below that not all indicators are supportive, so a position of 50-66% cash would not hurt me.  I'm targeting 50%, but it may take a few days to get there.

LCR Table:


Commentary:  The 2d and 3d slopes have moved long, which triggers the short-term timer.  If the trend continues we'll see the 5d and longer move to green too.

Note the green on the right side of the table -- this ALWAYS occurs before we get a good signal on the left.  I have no idea if the signal on the left is good at this point, but the setup is improving.

Cumulative Tick:



Commentary:  This is not confirming, which is problematic.  This will have me slow-rolling my equity level to 50% -- I need to have the white line above the red in order to go "all in".  You can see that the red line has a negative slope, which is poor, and you can also see that despite the action on today's markets as reflected by the indexes, the cumulative tick (white) didn't go anywhere throughout the day.

This is a big problem.

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Strategy:  I'm moving from 75% cash to 50% cash, albeit slowly.  Same method -- buy breakouts, reduce downward if not purchased in the given day.  Only buy GGT "long"-rated stocks.

The stock and ETF files have been updated with the latest stocks and recommendations -- the leader's list looks very good at this point.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd