We have a meeting at the Great Falls Library on May 14 at 10:15 (doors open at 10). I'll attempt to broadcast the event via WebEx; please stay tuned.
I'm traveling today from the west coast back to Virginia, so there are no GGT + Effective Volume recommendations for Friday, as Pascal doesn't update this content until the following morning (his time), and I will not be able address before I begin my travels.
- Obviously, another challenging day for the bulls. The GGT price index fell another -0.63% on volume that was 7% above average. 3 of the last 5 days have seen greater than -1% decrease in the GGT index on average volume, and with all of the past 5 days being down, we are quickly moving to an oversold condition.
- The 55d slope of the price index moving average has fallen below 0, which is the first time this has occurred since 11/16/10. The only soldier that is standing in positive territory is the 65d slope of the moving average, and if this falls, we will have a confirmed intermediate-term call to move everything to CASH. 9/7/10 was the last date that the 65d slope was negative, so this has been quite a bull leg.
- Needless to say, all the timers are in cash, both short-term and long term. Moving into long positions right now for anything longer than day trading is really not advised.
- Surprisingly, the 5d "slope of the slope" with respect to the price moving average, AND the long-cash ratio (LCR), have both moved positive. This is an interesting situation -- it means that on this 5d time frame we actually have slowed our drop, e.g., a reversal (bounce) could be in the making for Friday. It simply means that enough stocks moved upward to somewhat offset those that were falling, hence, we are slowing in the drop. I feel that money flow at this point will be critical to determining how aggressively we move back into the markets.
- The LCR, which is a measure of the number of stocks in the database with a LONG recommendation vs. CASH recommendation, has just moved below 1.0, which means there are more stocks on the CASH side than on the LONG side. The trend is down, and this is bearish for the short term. The LCR fell another -20% on Thursday, so the week's sequence is -11%, -28%, -25%, and -20%. If we fall less on Friday, or even reverse it to the positive side, then I think it possible that we could have a short-term bounce.