There is a meeting this weekend at the Great Falls Public Library in ... Great Falls, VA. Doors open at 10:00 and the meeting will start after I get set up, around 10:15. We will broadcast the meeting if a web connection is fast enough.
- The GGT price index rose nearly +1% on volume that was 30% below average. No, this is not due to C and their reverse split -- I do a simple average so C only gets a 1/2400 piece of the volume pie. Volume was simply very, very low, as in "outside of 1 standard deviation low". This is abnormal and indicates tremendous uncertainty in the markets.
- The pricing slopes moving averages are all negative, especially the 65d MA, which now has notched a 2-day negative value. This has not occurred since last August and is bearish for the intermediate term (65d = 13w = 1 Qtr).
- We did get a bit of a bounce in the DIRECTION of the slopes of the pricing moving averages -- they all turned upward with yesterday's action, just the slightest amount. This is a necessary condition for the bull to live -- all I can say is that it's on life support. We need more sustained up days of the DIRECTION of the slopes (which are all negative but now are pointing upward). If this is confusing look at yesterday's blog, specifically the first chart.
- My price accumulator tool, which tells me on a short-term basis whether I should buy stocks, actually moved from an extreme "oversold" level of -14 to +10 with yesterday's action, indicating that even if you were convinced of the market uptrend, that you would NOT move into the market today. The risk of tomorrow being a down day is better than 70%...
- The Short-Term LCR Change Timer, which uses the VTI to move in and out of the market, is ready to move LONG today if the markets are up. We've not made a lot of progress since February with this timer -- on 2/1 the equity curve was at $1.465, and the close of yesterday was $1.473. In that time frame it's moved as high as $1.529 and as low as $1.416. Sometimes timers work, sometimes they do not. It's a given that if you are out of the market you'll miss the best performance of any timer.... :)
- The Intermediate-Termed Elder Force Index timer is clearly negative, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. It will take a huge price/volume day to move this long.
- The LCR moving averages are all negative through the 65d MA, which is bearish. The database is contracting, meaning the number of stocks that are moving to a CASH recommendation is outpacing those that are moving to a LONG recommendation ON ALL MEASURED TIME SCALES. The implications of this are important -- your stock picking ability must improve dramatically if the pool of available outperforming stocks is getting smaller and smaller. We want the reverse, so we ride the tide upward, not invest when the currents are flowing outward. Sit pat.